High End Morgan Dollars As An Alternative Investment?

Gradeflation is an issue to some extent, but this is absolute nonsense.

The text I quoted. 62's in 65 holders, from PCGS and NGC? I am not buying it, especially not with silver dollars.

If you already have other investments, there's nothing wrong with throwing a few bucks at coins. Just think of what fun you can have doing it. I'm no expert, but while doing research in general in the Heritage Auction Archives, I do notice that selling prices today for an average decent coin, are greater than they were 10-15 years ago. I'm not suggesting that all eggs go in one basket, but if you are looking for a fun hobby and maybe a little upside over time, then sure, why not Maybe Morgans isn't the best place to start, since they are so popular, and good deals are few, so keep an open mind to other coins as well.

I echo the sentiment of most of the posters. If I were going to invest a good sum of money, I would rather put into stocks and/or bonds. Coins do have their pluses like the potential for a knowledgeable and savvy person to earn outsized returns and relatively low correlations to other assets but the negatives do weigh heavily like below average returns if one is not knowledgeable, no income during the holding period, relatively wide bid/ask spreads compared to traditional investments, and less favorable tax rates. Nothing wrong with spending 15-25k of disposable income on a coin that will be enjoyed for 15+ years. I just wouldn't do it assuming it would be a great investment.

Since your initial post mentions 15-25k key date morgans, I took a look at the returns of a few key morgans that are in or somewhat near that price ballpark range. I understand that such an analysis has its limitations due to the uniqueness of each coin even in the same grade, limited number of sales, and the potential for bias to be introduced in the selection and valuation process. So take it with a grain of salt.

The morgans I looked at are the 1879-CC MS-64, 1889-CC AU-58, 1893-CC MS-64, and 1893-S AU-50. The coins were graded problem free by either PCGS or NGC, had no grade modifiers, and no CAC. I averaged the price of all the coins auctioned in 2015 and 2000 that I could easily find. One assumption I made was the money received would be 90% of the auction price. All returns are pretax. The returns I got for the 1879-CC, 1889-CC, 1893-CC, and 1893-S are 4.6%, 8.8%, 5.9%, and 3.6% respectively. The stock market(vtsmx) and bond market(vbmfx) between 6/30/2000 and 6/30/2015 returned 4.9% and 5.2% respectively. Do keep in mind the last 15 years have been relatively favorable to coins and bonds but not so much for stocks. The future appreciation of the next 15 years may be different from the last 15 years.

If you want to do your own research, you can browse through the archives of Heritage and Stacks. Both PCGS and NGC have pricing data include tons of auction prices from multiple auction houses compiled into one place.

I just looked at the rarecoinwholesalers website. I was looking for some of the Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles with mintage of less than 100,000 from years before 1915. What I saw were about 40 not so rare coins in very high grade condition. I think I only saw one really low mintage coin. I would like to find the 1908S, 1909d, 1913S and 1914 but they do not need to be in MS65 condition. I would take them in any condition of at least VF. How do you get coins like these and avoid being robbed by fakers on ebay or some other crooks?

No matter what coin you are collecting and for what reason when you start laying down serious money you want serious security around it being the real deal you are paying for.
It is a good idea to trace back ebay dealers to see if they will deal with you privately.

Terry have you tried Collector's Corner? On there you can do an advanced search and narrow down the results. The dealers on there are well known. http://www.collectorscorner.com/Cat...=67&tl=false

If you are suitably flush with cash you may want to consider a private investment consultant -- a specialist in coin investing and numismatic markets who will build you an investment portfolio of rare coins to fit within your budget, buying and selling as needed to generate profits and growth. This removes some of the burden of research and market analysis from you (the investor.)

Also -- remember that even if new coins from hoards or safe deposit boxes suddenly showed up -- if prices fell, new buyers would enter the market, attracted by affordability, and that would stop any price spiral as the market self-corrected. In addition, once the price started falling, many sellers might decide to hold their inventory on the sidelines, further softening the impact of a large influx of fresh coins. Other sellers might attempt to corner the market by buying en masse at the lower prices, slabbing the coins as "Brand X Hoard" pedigree, and then putting them back on the market at a higher price point, resulting in an overall price increase.