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 Replies: 28 / Views: 3,618 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5854 Posts |
As already mentioned, it is near impossible replicate it now but let's say that it is not. How much would it take to replicate Eliasberg? First, I looked at the total realized prices from the 3 auctions in 10/1982, 5/1996, and 4/1997. I then adjusted the total realized prices to today not using the rate of inflation but by using the returns of the S&P 500. My reasoning for using the S&P 500 instead of inflation was somewhat explained in this thread but basically the people who can afford these coins have earned their wealth directly or indirectly from business. Whether that be an entrepreneur, senior management, wall street executive, etc. So I think the stock market can serve as a proxy, though imperfect, for the wealth and spending ability of the very rich. Can some ultra rarities earn a return higher than the stock market? Absolutely. As an aggregate, I think not. If they did, then they would eventually be unaffordable for the ultra rich which would put downward pressure on prices. The total realized prices for the 10/1982, 5/1996, and 4/1997 auctions were $12,562,110, $11,443,074, and $20,046,246 respectively. If we figure out how much those figures would be worth today if they had be invested in the S&P 500, we should have some guesstimate as to what likely the upper limit amount of money needed. Using the S&P 500 return calculator with dividends reinvested on dqydj.com, I get a total of $687,596,323. My guess is it would take somewhere between what the Pogue collection realized and the figure above. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
If you could break out the 70 S 3 dollar then you would have to say that any coin permanently impounded in a museum is also available. How about a trade off for being complete. Give up the 70-S that Eliasberg had in exchange for the 70-S Half Dime which he didn't have. Not sure what you would do about the 33 double eagle which he did have briefly. That one may be a toughie. |
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Valued Member
United States
294 Posts |
I know of someone who is attempting to duplicate the Eliasberg cabinet; but he has literally hundreds of millions of dollars at his disposal to do it. But gobs of money isn't enough today; some coins have surviving populations in the single digits, and reside in tightly held collections. Who knows when they might be pried loose from their owners?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5241 Posts |
Assuming the higher estimate D0ubl3Eagle quoted, 1 billion dollars is not exactly chump change even for the ultra rich. So such a person would need to think about this project. It would not be something done on a whim.
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
If I was ultra rich, perhaps a single cherry from the Eliasberg Collection would suffice for me.
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Pillar of the Community
Russian Federation
5174 Posts |
IIRC, the Eliasberg set had some common 20th century coins in very low grades (XF? VF? don't recall the details).
I wonder where those coins are today...
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CCF Advertiser
 United States
1533 Posts |
Edited by Andrew99
09/03/2017 12:23 am
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
IIRC, the Eliasberg set had some common 20th century coins in very low grades (XF? VF? don't recall the details).
Not sure about that but some where very common grades and nothing special for sure. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6130 Posts |
There's more than just one or two unique US coins, so I would agree that the ultimate factor is to get as many out of their current collections before the rest catch on. For example, the unique 1982-D small date copper recently sold for over $20k. Chump change for the uber rich, but it was found by someone who wanted to sell and now belongs to someone who wants to keep it. Offering $30k might get it now, but imagine if they saw the news that a high roller just dropped $8M on a 1913 V nickel? They can ask literally any price, at which point it might be a better investment to commission CCF's roll hunters to find another one! The 1942-S small S nickel is likewise another unique ultra-rarity, but I think it has only been sold 2-3 times since being found in the 60s. IIRC, it hasn't even held a candle to the other unique US coins, but probably because there isn't any serious demand for it. |
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Perhaps the most important obstacle to another Eliasberg collection being created is the amount of competition. Back in his day, the number of collectors with both the will and the wherewithal to accomplish such a feat could be counted on one hand, probably with leftover fingers. Today, even a million dollar coin can attract a dozen bidders, some of whom are motivated more by ego and competitiveness than numismatic sense.
That's not even counting issue specialists with deep pockets of their own, who would in individual cases be able and willing to force bidding for a specific coin into the realm of altered reality.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Perhaps the most important obstacle to another Eliasberg collection being created is the amount of competition. Back in his day, the number of collectors with both the will and the wherewithal to accomplish such a feat could be counted on one hand, probably with leftover fingers. Today, even a million dollar coin can attract a dozen bidders, some of whom are motivated more by ego and competitiveness than numismatic sense.
That's not even counting issue specialists with deep pockets of their own, who would in individual cases be able and willing to force bidding for a specific coin into the realm of altered reality. That's a really good point. The speed that information travels as well. It didn't take long at all for word to get out with what was happening with the current person who is attempting to do it. You almost have to put just as much effort into hiding what you are doing as you do to finding the coins themselves. |
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CCF Advertiser
United States
1533 Posts |
I don't think a new Eliasberg would include the varieties like the 1942-S small S nickel or the 1982-D small date cent. After all, his collection did not include a complete set of Bust Halves by Overton number nor a set of Bust Dollars by Bolendar number. Its just every US coin by date and mintmark.
Edited by Andrew99
09/07/2017 10:28 am
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Eliasberg's collection was based on what was listed in the Catalogue of United States coins by Wayte Raymond. (Because he started his collection before the RedBook existed) So a great many of the varieties we care about today were not listed and therefor not needed for a "complete" set. There are more "major varieties" listed in the current RedBook and were listed in the Wayte Raymond book. His collection was basically after one of each date and mintmark for each denomination, He did have some if not all of the major varieties listed in the Raymond book. Edited by Conder101
09/07/2017 2:07 pm
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Replies: 28 / Views: 3,618 |
First Page
Posted 08/31/2017 10:42 am
