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Falcon Lake UFO Silver Coin

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Cassidy77's Avatar
Canada
541 Posts
 Posted 12/18/2018  2:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cassidy77 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Falcon Lake UFO coin seems to be holding value as sellers are not selling below 700.00 CAD..Auctions are few and far between with disappointing results for sellers so I guess with such a low mintage any one who wants this coin will either have to cough up 700.00+ or wait until a rare auction opportunity comes along. My original theory that the price will settle around 260 was very wrong. This coin wont be going down anytime soon. Happy Holidays
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Redzapsid's Avatar
Canada
1571 Posts
 Posted 12/18/2018  2:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Redzapsid to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Give it more time, and it'll drop. Always do.
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vonigohcr's Avatar
Canada
665 Posts
 Posted 12/18/2018  9:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vonigohcr to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@cassidy77... where are you looking?
Quote:
any one who wants this coin will either have to cough up 700.00+ or wait until a rare auction opportunity comes along


On the bay, the realized prices range from a low of $257 through $523 with most in the $300s. I will admit it has shown more resilience than I expected but I still believe it will settle at 1x-2x bullion in the fullness of time.
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Alex A's Avatar
710 Posts
 Posted 12/19/2018  07:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Alex A to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@vonigohcr, at current silver spot prices that is roughly CAD $20-40 for a 1oz silver coin. Not sure it will hit that level.

OTOH the "balloon" 1oz coins can now be had for below $100 and certainly seem to be following that trajectory.

Best wishes to everyone!
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vonigohcr's Avatar
Canada
665 Posts
 Posted 12/19/2018  1:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vonigohcr to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@AlexA

It may be that time is the great equalizer... In the early '90s, one of the earliest non Olympic higher value NCLT series issued was in celebration of Canada's history of aviation. This series was 10 coins, each 1 ounce of Sterling for a total of 9.25 ounces of pure Silver. The issue price was $55.50 each or $555 for the set. Included in this set was a coin depicting the Lancaster Bomber which was a runaway success at the time; even with a mintage in excess of 40,000 this reached in excess of 3x the issue price; Charlton today lists still lists it at $135-150.

In 1990, Silver was around $4.50/Oz or $5.40 CDN. So in context, the Aviation Series 1 was sold in the early '90s at an 11x markup on the bullion cost ($55.50 for $5 worth of Silver).

Earlier this year, I picked up a set for $300 at auction including fees. Not only is this 45% drop in raw dollars, it completely ignores approximately 60% lift due to inflation... i.e. the $55.50 spent in 1990 equates to around $90 today in 2018 dollars.

Since the 1oz coins are sterling, the 10 coin set adds up to 9.25 oz of silver and at 1x-2x bullion, that would be a range of $185 - $370 based on a $20CDN ounce (Today's random date maple cost is $23.25 CDN)

This is a pattern that is repeated over and over again. All of the $100 proof Gold issues older than 10 years routinely trade for bullion equivalent.

It makes no financial sense to pay even the RCM's inflated prices for silver coins let alone any juice added by a temporary interest bubble such as was generated for the Falcon Lake coin. One area that has improved... the RCM only marks up Silver by 5x-6x these days

By the way, I really like the Aviation series and am happy to own it. Buy what you like because you like it or it fills a gap in your collection... don't buy it for investment... unless you are a short term flipper and are very lucky; the trends are just not in your favour.
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Cassidy77's Avatar
Canada
541 Posts
 Posted 12/19/2018  2:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cassidy77 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@vonighohcr..My 700.00 is from ebay current listings available..i see there is one available for 650 obo plus S|h.....Sales are very resistant above 450 but recent sale of 700.00 on the 12th december 2018 shows that patience will pay off. I just dont buy all the silver bullion arguments for this coin ..I do believe that the thousands of new release by the mints worldwide is an excellent way to sell silver bullion to suckers..You just cant put a value on sentimentality and thats the unknown factor which applies to art values thruout the spectrum of collectible sales. I would say that the UFO "coinage" has a firm collectible niche will will drive these prices. I'm waiting for another buying opportunity for a FL coin..and I am very patient.
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vonigohcr's Avatar
Canada
665 Posts
 Posted 12/19/2018  4:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vonigohcr to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@cassidy77... If you enjoy the coin, that is all that matters. I will be surprised though if this level of multiple survives 10 years... Hey... if we are still on this forum in 2028, I will happily eat my prognostications if this coin is retaining its price separation from the other coins issued this year.

Good Luck and best wishes for the new year.
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MoneyPenney's Avatar
Canada
2984 Posts
 Posted 12/19/2018  5:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MoneyPenney to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
recent sale of 700.00 on the 12th december 2018 shows that patience will pay off.


The ebay listing shows a $700 sold price but that is not necessarily the price it went for. It has a best offer option which means it probably sold for less than $700.

And before you bring up the "there is no line across the sold price" argument for a best offer sale, items with more than one in stock that are sold revert to listing price. Mario95, the seller of the $700 coin, had more than one coin in stock. The sold price in the listing is the price of the coin remaining.
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Looney4Numi's Avatar
Canada
659 Posts
 Posted 12/19/2018  8:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Looney4Numi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I just dont buy all the silver bullion arguments for this coin

I agree. Most, but not all RCM coins drop significantly. Some examples are 2016 Pysanka, 2016 Cherry Blossom coin, 2016 2oz Northern Lights GITD coin, just to name a few.

Quote:
700.00 on the 12th december 2018 shows that patience will pay off.

That coin sold for $659.95. That's a long way from bullion price.

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