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Is Coin Speculation Running Rampant? Do Crackouts Still Occur? Yes!

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paralyse's Avatar
United States
12057 Posts
 Posted 05/23/2018  11:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add paralyse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
TPG populations and survival estimates are meaningless. They exist entirely to justify demanding absurd premiums for "top pop" coins and hyper-inflated TPG price guide values that heavily overvalue coins in all grades. The very few exceptions are for historic rarities of which the population is so low that it can be accurately stated as to a survival rate, e.g. the 1804 dollar and 1913 V nickel.

There is one thing they ARE useful for, and that's determining the condition scarcity curve for a given coin. This has allowed numismatists to back up long-held "wisdom" with actual numbers and raised the importance of condition scarcities relative to mintage scarcities. Collectors have known for years, for instance, that certain Morgan dollars (1883-S, 1880-O, 1896-O, 1897-O) were very difficult to find in higher Uncirculated grades, but it wasn't until the advent of TPG pop tracking that the anecdotes of years of collectors were able to be supported by hard data.
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"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis
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Heymikep's Avatar
United States
824 Posts
 Posted 05/23/2018  11:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Heymikep to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
TPG populations and survival estimates are meaningless.



Quote:
There is one thing they ARE useful for, and that's determining the condition scarcity curve for a given coin.
. I have used them this way as well but I do wonder how many of the higher graded coins are duplicates from people trying to get a higher grade?
Bedrock of the Community
paralyse's Avatar
United States
12057 Posts
 Posted 05/23/2018  9:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add paralyse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Probably quite a few, but it's still reasonably accurate for guesstimating.
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890

"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 05/23/2018  9:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Slabbing can also help a bit with authenticity, but it must be understood that Third Party Graders are not in the business of providing a definitive answer to authenticity.


This is not true at all. The absolutely ARE in the business of authentication.


Quote:
. I have used them this way as well but I do wonder how many of the higher graded coins are duplicates from people trying to get a higher grade?


Just assume the population is inflated anywhere you see a large price jump in the next grade.
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