2011 Ladybug Coin Massive Devaluation The RCNA Auction Today

Which begs the question, if the mints keep pumping out NCLT just to see what sticks, then where does the excess go? There must be some process for removing the excess/over-produced new releases from the market?

The total mintage was 5000 all over the world.
Since the next one in the series released with 10.000 mintage, it increased demand for LadyBug even more

Not surprising - above.

I know that the auction are more trustable and have better exposure, than a private seller, but have to say that ALL the expectations are not realistic.

On the basis of experience:

NCLT coins that people interested in them - you have to sell 70%-80% from issue, to beat other sellers.

Sometimes, like 2013 Superman 1oz coins - sold for 90% from issue.

2 international editions, that never were over-hyped, but sold with the premium:
Cassiopeia Domed Coin by RAM
Steamboat Willie by NZM

I am not sure that Auction values are more valid... or at least, a single auction result. All they represent are whether there is an interest in an item up for bid within the audience at the auction. It would be interesting to know what did sell at or above estimate. Is it safe to suggest that many if not most of the buyers at the RCNA auction are more interested in circulating issues? If that is the case, selling NCLT to that clientele will always be problematic. As with most trend prognostications, a single data point is not that useful. I would like to see a couple of auction results, each addressing a different client segment before I drew a sweeping conclusion such as above.

Don't misunderstand, I believe that there is a serious problem with the state of the NCLT business globally. There is too much product created, the mintages are too high, the initial release prices are too high and with the ubiquitous nature of the internet (eBay, Heritage etc.), there is the ability to price items globally vs. relying on the LCS which as demonstrated with most global reach vendors (Amazon, Walmart etc.), has a depressing effect the prices of high margin items.

The other aspect that is often missed on the NCLT divisions of mints is that their Bullion divisions are making higher and higher quality products without the large traditional NCLT margins providing an alternate avenue for collectors. Just peruse APMEX if you doubt. So what if there are multiple thousand items out there... if your interest is good looking coins, with face value (SMLs are $5) at a price that is near bullion so you can manage your investment risk bullion issues are a viable option. Traditional NCLT mints are looking to differentiate their product to maintain the premium pricing but are often relying on gimmickry however there is insufficient demand over time to maintain the high initial sale price.

It is interesting to note that the initial $100 gold releases from the RCM are all in the black vs. initial release price. From 1976-1986 22k issues then 1987-2008 14k issues are all net positive values. This however has nothing to do with collectibility, only a recognition that the intrinsic value of the metal exceeds the initial sale price. It is going to take a long time for Silver to hit the $120-$150 CDN/ ounce to allow most contemporary Silver NCLT to get into the black.

The world mints need to change it up... NCLT as a market is on tenuous ground and it is close to collapse. Remember Beanie Babies, POGS, etc. General rule is anything marketed as collectible usually isn't. The only difference between NCLT & Beanie babies as collectibles is that NCLT will always retain the intrinsic value of the metal and that is the direction toward which you are seeing the values of NCLT drift.

Oh... And who in their right minds gets NCLT or Bullion graded & slabbed... With the declining value of NCLT and low margins on bullion, where is the capacity to make or retain value after factoring TPG costs.

Well stated MoneyPenney. Is there really much of a market for graded PF70 NCLT?

I've got a couple slabbed PF70 Canadian NLCT coins....however they had great meaning to me and were purchased for less than issue price even in the slab....Don't plan on selling.

On another note it's sad to see the NLCT going down hill....I'm in western Canada and from what I've noticed is that less people are into coins out here compared to the east.Im near a city of 100,000 people and there ain't one coin shop!....

Resurrecting this post to reinforce the point. On a Colonial Acres auction on the past weekend (July 11/2021), The 2011 Ladybug went for $624 (529 + 95 fees based on a $499 start price) and the 2016 Glass Snail went for $85 (buyers fees included). Usually the first in a desired series sees great appreciation and the Ladybug was selling at $1200 before fees at one point but in the end, all prices deflate to bullion equivalent in time and any NCLT premium is less than 2X. Prediction: Glass Ladybug will be in the Bullion x2 range in 10 yrs or less, the Snail is already there if you exclude the buyer fees.

Very very few NCLT retain premiums over time. When compared to circulating coins there is no contest; 1947ML and 1948 dollars are trading at many multiples... At the same auction, an ungraded 1948 dollar went for $519+fees and it had a PMD hole in it. That is over 20x bullion... Not a fair comparison but it reinforces the points made earlier in the discussion that NCLT should be collected based on personal goals and not investment or even value retention.