Survival Rate Of 1909-S VDB Cents (And Other Coins)

Morgans Dad; While I was reading this post, I also was thinking the same thing. You are (I think) spot on! I know that I myself have never sent any of my coins in for 'professional' grading, and I know that I'm not alone. I'm taking a rough guess and believe that around 90% of coins NEVER get graded, which makes them theoretically 'lost'.

It amuses me when I watch the TV coin dealers advertise how "rare" their coins are by stating that only 'x' amount are left, or are a specific grade, and then show the population report from ONE company. What garbage!

Anyways, it's my opinion that of the 484,000 VDB-s cents originally minted and issued, around 250,000, if not more, still remain.

In the old days, and still, most movement of coins is just 10 or 20 miles at a time. They move in a random walk and disperse from their points of origin. Before airlines there were trains that helped spread some to the farthest reaches before they were all the way down to VF or XF.

My only point was that by the time a coin is worn down to AG or Poor it could be almost anywhere.

Even today it can be hard to get a Denver issue above AU on the east coast. As coins travel they wear and until there are enough in circulation you are unlikely to find one.

I do think that many more are still out there by grandma/grandpa and even horders who do not search and grade. We greatly over amplify that people are actively willing to pay to join a grading service, have knowledge of the value of such coin, and have time to look through cents and then take time to send them in. Most people I know have large amounts of change without a thought to search through them, grade them etc. At most they might want to clean out someday like a death or move but those would likely end up at a coinstar or bank rather than being searched and graded. Some who know value still don't grade until they are ready to sell, and a few here never even wish to sell regardless of value apparently.

On the other side yes its a very well known coin with value and more people are searching then ever, so I wouldnt think there are drastic amounts sitting out there in high grade not found. Also many are probably sitting in safe deposits, jars, coin albums, or ungraded because they are in low grade and people just don't know even in that grade this particular coin has some value or have the time to even look. So many people here post they got a collection and have no idea about them. Also If you go to most coin shows or shops they are there so I wouldnt think it to be rare either except finding old coins in change is indeed getting unusual to see as people are at least searching those more for known value.

Otherwise they are at least durable goods and not zinc cents so they should still exist in some form, its just not yet known how many go ungraded or sitting around above the known graded ones and how many more in better grade might also still be around.