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Replies: 47 / Views: 2,736 |
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Valued Member
United States
311 Posts |
Quote: The largest buyers of U.S. gold were the United Kingdom ($10.8B), I would like to invoke Cramer Rule. UK highest gold reserves was about 2,500 tonnes in 1950. By year 2000, they had sold their holdings down to 300 tons, creating the bear market low price below $300.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1763 Posts |
For everyone that is panicking, see this from The Kobeissi Letter. We are at step 8 now (Tuesday because of the MLK holiday). Don't worry jbuck, no new wars, just the art of the deal.
The Kobeissi Letter
We've spent the last 10 months analyzing EVERY single tariff development:
Here's the EXACT playbook for investors.
1. Trump puts out cryptic post on tariffs coming for a specific country or sector, markets drift lower
2. Trump announces large tariff rate (50%+) and markets crash to shake out weak positions
3. Dip buyers step in but the head fake rally leads to fresh lows where smart money begins buying
4. After the market closes on Friday, President Trump doubles down on new tariffs to apply pressure
5. On Saturday, the target of the new tariff typically responds or comments
6. On Sunday, before the futures open, Trump posts an announcement saying he is working on a solution
7. Futures open on sharply higher Sunday at 6 PM ET but begin losing momentum into the Monday open
8. After the Monday open, Treasury Secretary Bessent appears on live TV and reassures investors
9. Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration tease a trade deal
10. Trump announces a new trade deal and the stock market hits a record high
11. Repeat from step 1
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
11880 Posts |
I think the result of these shenanigans listed above is that the stock market has risen, but the dollar has devalued by over 10% and the national debt has exploded. That is why people want gold and silver, not dollars. Precious metals have outperformed the stock market in the past year because the policies you listed above have shaken any confidence investors had in the dollar. This is the K-shaped economy where the rich who own assets get rich and those holding dollars become bagholders of a depreciating currency.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1763 Posts |
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Moderator
 United States
187934 Posts |
Quote: For everyone that is panicking, see this from The Kobeissi Letter. We are at step 8 now... I would be lying if I said I believed that my money people have not been and are not continuing to take advantage of this process. Coins are a hobby, not an investment, so this is where I make my ends, a few degrees removed from the mechanisms. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1763 Posts |
Quote: I would be lying if I said I believed that my money people have not been and are not continuing to take advantage of this process. Coins are a hobby, not an investment, so this is where I make my ends, a few degrees removed from the mechanisms. I agree with your statements except with gold at $4700 and silver at $100 my hobby has become an investment. We are all going to be priced out by the increase in those commodities.
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Moderator
 United States
187934 Posts |
Quote: I agree with your statements except with gold at $4700 and silver at $100 my hobby has become an investment. Maybe by default, but not by design. I am not selling either way. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
The CPI was up 2.7% last year. That's the antithesis of hyperinflation.
Last weekend my USD was buying CND for $0.72. That's the antithesis of USD collapse. I threw my USD over the imaginary fence and got back a LOT of value in goods and services in return.
If central banks want to continue hyperinflating PM's that's their business.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Moderator
 United States
187934 Posts |
Food for thought. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
One of the drivers for the PM price runup was the confiscation of $300 billion in Russian bank assets in 2022, mostly in Europe. Physical gold cannot be confiscated, and is a better asset for countries nervous about their future. Poland has been a major buyer. They are the tip of the NATO spear so to speak, and they have enough wealth to buy 50T of gold a year despite the price. Any world event that is destabilizing drives the price up.
The value of the PM's as national assets makes them unique commodities. Governments cannot put eggs, copper or oil in a vault like they can with gold. If a viable peace breaks out in Ukraine the demand for gold will drop. Particularly in Poland.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 01/24/2026 11:35 am
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
11880 Posts |
Quote: The CPI was up 2.7% last year. That's the antithesis of hyperinflation. I'm not sure that anyone is claiming that there is hyperinflation in our country. There does seem to be a cost of living crisis here. 2.7% is a composite inflation number made up of many components. Beef prices rose 16% in the last year as we have the smallest cattle herd in the last 70 years. Coffee prices have risen 20% as Brazil and Vietnam have been experiencing adverse weather and U.S. tariffs. When people see how much less beef and coffee their dollar buys, they are motivated to buy precious metals because, unlike the dollar, their metals have increased in value. Key Inflationary Components (Dec 2025 - Jan 2026 Data): Energy Services: Natural gas (piped) (+10.8%) and electricity (+6.7%) are experiencing the highest, rapid increases. Shelter: Rent and owners' equivalent rent continue to rise, with overall shelter costs increasing 3.4% annually, remaining a primary driver of core inflation. Food Away From Home: Services, particularly full-service meals, have risen by 4.9%. Core Goods & Commodities: While some goods have cooled, core commodities (excluding food and energy) rose 1.5% as of August 2025, driven by supply chain issues and tariff policies. Transportation: Motor vehicle insurance, while fluctuating, has seen significant long-term increases, with prices rising over 50% between 2020 and mid-2025. For context, overall CPI for all items less food and energy remained at 2.6% in December 2025
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
11880 Posts |
Now if you compare the disillusionment of someone living in our country facing rising prices for goods with our currency, and compare it to over 100 countries running a rate of inflation higher than ours, you can easily conclude that they want precious metals more than we do. Thus, they are willing to pay more than we are here.
Take, Japan for example. The yen has been depreciating against the dollar since they started raising interest rates. The price of gold in Tokyo has been reported to be $20 above CME spot. That's because their currency depreciates as inflation rises and they can't get rid of it fast enough. Same in Argentina, Turkey and Lebanon which have experienced annual inflation rates around 100% recently. These countries are driving PM prices up and we here in the US are following and cheering these prices up as people line up around coin stores to sell their gold and silver. These metals then get exported to desperate countries where people think of their currency as toilet paper.
This dynamic, for the time being, creates great incentives for gold and silver to be exported out of the United States.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
The primary demand for gold is not from people that think their currencies are toilet paper. It's from central governments like Poland faced with possible electronic asset seizures like Russia experienced. They'll pay whatever it costs.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
11880 Posts |
Quote: The primary demand for gold is not from people that think their currencies are toilet paper. It's from central governments like Poland faced with possible electronic asset seizures like Russia experienced. They'll pay whatever it costs. Poland is a member of NATO. It is not afraid of gold seizures. THE BRICS countries that are sanctioned by us are afraid. Russia, China and Iran in particular. The National Bank of Poland has adopted a policy target to acquire 700 tons of gold in its reserves because they don't want to hold U.S. dollar-denominated treasury securities as their primary reserve asset. They are exposed to risk of war with Russia at their doorstep encroaching on Ukraine. Only 20-33% of Poland's gold reserves are in Warsaw. The vast majority of Poland's gold reserves is in London and New York. Why would Poland store their gold reserves in NY if they were afraid of U.S. asset seizures? They are not afraid of seizures. They are afraid that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will spill over to Poland. And they want their gold in jurisdictions where they can easily use it pay for arms purchases from the U.S. and other NATO members if war breaks out within their borders.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com
Edited by numismatic student 01/24/2026 4:37 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
The concern with asset seizures is electronic (bonds and bitcoin for example) not physical holdings of PM's. Poland's currency is the zloty not the euro, and like the ruble or the bolivar could be subject to hyperinflation if there is a war. They don't have enough gold to support the zloty but they have enough fungible wealth for an emergency.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 01/24/2026 5:01 pm
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Replies: 47 / Views: 2,736 |
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