Watching The Dead Cats Bounce

I don't see anything that would keep silver above $30 in the next 8 weeks. When I look at a silver chart (http://www.commoditycharts.com/char...CANDLE&a=W), everything to me points to $22 silver soon. Will it happen? No way of knowing now. All one can do is be prepared if I am correct.

Granted there is lots of near term support for silver in the mid-30s. But I don't think it will hold if gold crashes. And I think gold is going to crash - It has been too high for too long without a significant sell off.

I expect gold to crash to at least $1250, but more likely $1000 as that is where the first major support is located. Next year we could and probably will see record high prices for both gold and silver, so I view the coming months as the buying opportunity of the century regardless of whether my pessimistic prognosis is correct or not.

First off my cats don't bounce, they just get flatten by the tractor tires which are really big. It only takes one big player to make a move and Gold and Silver with fall, bounce and who knows what.

If gold and silver drops is that a good thing? I say yes just as good as going up. I don't get too troubled which way it goes or where it is going to stall until I am ready to sell.

Is it going to 22? I can only wish it would but I doubt that will take place this year. Few people actual predict the correct move though they have been trying for as long as I can remember. Oh don't get me wrong you keep predicting then sooner or later you get it right.

I watch the big guys to give me a sense of what is going to happen.


Stocks too will see bigger and better days but it may be awhile before you can call the stock market stable.

Now my question what sources are you using to predict gold will crash along with silver? History is nice but PM's have proved they can ignore history, just look at the ratio.

I would think a $800 dollar fall in a short two months us a big call for anyone. The same for silver dropping by $17 very soon.

No way I would short volatile markets like these. Too easy to get burnt big time if I am wrong.

Instead, I just buy as it drops, then sell off bits and pieces as it rises. Over time I just try to keep my net cost at zero, which is the same thing I have been doing in the steel and aluminum markets for decades.




The only source I am using is over 40 years of experience in various commodity markets, mostly physical. As well as technical and chart analysis for that same period of time.

It is a big call. And I may be wrong. However, based on everything I know and see now, that is exactly what I see.

For whatever it is worth, I called the 2008 crash and low to the exact day and within 1% of the numbers months in advance. It was recorded here on the internet, though I am not sure the evidence still exists. I also called a crash in 1996 to the exact day and amount 6 months before it happened. There never was any evidence proving that call on the internet. And I have made NUMEROUS calls which NEVER PANNED OUT.

Does that mean I am correct here? NO WAY! It just means I am making a call which could, and probably will, splatter mud all over my face.

My current target date for the low is Monday, 24 October 2011. That is tentative at the moment because I have not had confirmation that the top of gold has actually happened, though everything points to it.

And as noted above, I am NOT going short. I will just buy down IF it goes down.

I agree, I just wondered if you had your money where your mouth was... so to speak. Buying out of the money puts isn't very risky. I now have sept puts in GLD and SLV. But I also bought a few sept calls in GLD, I'll make money in GLD either way as long as its a big move up or down. I'll lose some both ways if it stays in the middle though.

Unlike other commodities, Gold has some big money (billions) on both sides of the trade currently. Which side runs of out money first will determine the direction of the price. Certain price points in gold will be defended and attacked by both sides.

Ergo sideways price action is another possibility with violent intra day swings of $100 to $200 are possible and probable.