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How Important Is Collector Demand For A Coin

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United States
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 Posted Yesterday   9:39 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add coinnewcomer1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I bought for about melt or slightly above it a nice XF 1952 Canadian dollar. The mintages for many of these coins (especially from the 1940's to early 50's) is below half a million and lower). Yet a 1916-D Mercury dime with a mintage half the 1952 Canadian dollar would sell for $900 in AG grade!.

To me Canadian dollar coins prior to 1959 are very undervalued and some key date US coins are overvalued.

However, the reason for the present valuation is simply collector demand - America has had a higher profile as a superpower and Canada as a developed and active commercial power with a smaller population.

The mintage of the 1952 Canadian dollar is just over 460,000 the 1916-D Mercury dime - 264,000. The downside for Canadian dollar collectors is reselling them, you will get for most dates at or slightly above melt value (I believe there is really one key date the 1948, mintage about 18,800, yet even for this coin prices run less than the Mercury dime 1916-D). The big upside is they are a bargain, even the key date compared with some US key dates with much higher mintages - the 48 you can get XF for around 1500 - 1700, versus the 1916-D Mercury dime $7,500 + with the Canadian 48 having less than a 1/10 of the mintage of the Mercury and an equally stunning but more original design).

I do think that many World coins suffer undervaluation. Only a few countries' coins are fairly of over valued.

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NumisRob's Avatar
United Kingdom
18978 Posts
 Posted Today  8H 44M ago  Show Profile   Check NumisRob's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add NumisRob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Demand is a huge factor in coin values. Some countries are more popular than others and some coin series like Lincoln cents are especially popular with lots of collectors trying to fill elusive gaps. I've noticed over the past 20 years how Monaco and Vatican coins issued since the Euro was introduced have rocketed in value whereas pre-Euro coins from those countries with much smaller mintages have not, because there are now lots of collectors all over Europe building up sets of all euro coins.
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Sap's Avatar
Australia
17009 Posts
 Posted Today  6H 59M ago  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Demand is an entire half of the famous "supply and demand" equation that determines the price of an object. In other words, it literally does not matter if something actually really and truly is "rare", it won't be valuable if nobody wants it.

Most demand for a specific country's coin series is generated domestically, from collectors within that country. So for a country to have "high value" coins, there need to be a lot of collectors in that country that want to collect their own coins. If the number of collectors in that country is very small, then there simply won't be any demand for those coins, either in that country or elsewhere, and the prices will be low, no matter how low the mintages or how high the quality of the artwork.

It's not just the absolute size of the country that determines that baseline demand level, but also the "collecting culture" of that country. It's widely known that coin collecting is simply more popular in some countries than in others, and it surprisingly has little to do with the relative wealth of that country. Canada and the USA both have very high participation levels - the percentage of the population that collects coins is much higher in North America than it is pretty much anywhere else. The demand difference between Canada and the US is driven purely by the fact that Canada is much smaller in population than the US.

For another example, compare the two Western European economic superpowers, France and Germany. Both roughly the same size, both wealthy countries with rich numismatic histories, both having very proud and parochial peoples interested in their own national history and identity, and both countries joined the euro at exactly the same time. Yet coin collecting is far more popular in Germany than it is in France. Why? It boils down to culture. And I think that cultural difference can be traced back to the divergence in their histories in the 1700s: Germany stayed aristocratic, while France underwent a populist revolution that saw much of the aristocracy be killed or exiled. So in Germany we saw the rise of the mindset that if you were wealthy enough to have spare money, you should do what the aristocracy does and collect coins. Meanwhile in France, coin collecting became something seen as a decadent luxury, a habit of the evil nobility, and not something to be culturally sought after. Although the aristocracy is now long gone in both countries, the legacy of that attitude shift is still seen today.
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publius's Avatar
United States
880 Posts
 Posted Today  2H 43M ago  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add publius to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Sap, I think part of the France/Germany divide is also that French coinage was very much centralized and uniform (and somewhat stereotyped) for a long time even before the Revolution, whereas Germany had large issues by the individual States right down to 1918, and if you go back before 1800, you have hundreds of issuers with their own motifs and ideas about how a coin should look.

The US, it seems to me, is kind of anomalous in its "date mint and variety" culture, with so few types before the State Quarters, and a collecting interest in the small discrepancies within types. I honestly think that has a lot to do with Whitman albums. When you have one, you want to fill every slot, and there are only so many 1909-S VDB cents to go around!
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
196698 Posts
 Posted Today  2H 22M ago  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I honestly think that has a lot to do with Whitman albums. When you have one, you want to fill every slot
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