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Tif Contest #3: Guess The Hammer, Ancient Edition

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mcshilling's Avatar
Canada
9160 Posts
 Posted 09/17/2013  10:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mcshilling to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Round 1 redo


Quote:
Round 1 Bid Sheet

Lot 1 $1600
Lot 349: $3100
Lot 395: $64,500
Lot 633: $2450
Lot 775: $3500
Lot 1138 $1000
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D0ubl3Eagle's Avatar
United States
5854 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  12:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add D0ubl3Eagle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Count me in! Haven't participated in too many contests but this one looks like fun!

Round 1:
Lot 1: 2000
Lot 349: 4000
Lot 395: 90000
Lot 633: 2750:
Lot 775: 4000
Lot 1138: 1300
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argentum's Avatar
United States
1195 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  02:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add argentum to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A revision before bed, and the deadline for round 1:

Round 1 Bid Sheet

Lot 1: $__1500__
Lot 349: $__3000__
Lot 395: $__60000__
Lot 633: $__2100__
Lot 775: $__3500__
Lot 1138: $__900__

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perfessor's Avatar
United States
927 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  02:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add perfessor to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't know much about ancients and I don't have any yet, but I will give this a try. It looks interesting.

Round 1 Bid Sheet

Lot 1 $____1500
Lot 349: $____3000
Lot 395: $____60000
Lot 633: $____2400
Lot 775 $____3300
Lot 1138 $____800
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ThisIsFun's Avatar
United States
2480 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  07:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ThisIsFun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Round 1 is now closed for entry. Do not edit your bids.

Round 1 lots close today and I will post the Round 1 winner tonight.
Edited by ThisIsFun
09/18/2013 10:33 am
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ThisIsFun's Avatar
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2480 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  10:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ThisIsFun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Watching the Round 1 lots as they close. So far no big surprises, not much movement from the last bids placed hours before closing-- so those of you who adjusted your bids based on the most recent bid early this morning are sittin' pretty.

Halfway through the closings, echizento has a fairly strong lead.

Do not expect this dynamic to hold for round 2!

Round two coins finish with a live auction which may bring bidding wars.
Edited by ThisIsFun
09/18/2013 10:36 am
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 Posted 09/18/2013  2:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Whizb4ng to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ah dang. I was one bid too high on most of them (except the electrum that one went for way more than I thought). Nearly got the Augustus on the nose though!
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ThisIsFun's Avatar
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2480 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  3:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ThisIsFun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am double-checking my math right now. The formula I used as an example may not be the correct way to show the variance; I'm trying to figure it out now. May need to use the guess as the denominator, not the hammer price. It probably doesn't matter for purposes of the actual winner but I would like to do this correctly.

Now I'm tired and confused :/

I'll work it out this evening and post a spreadsheet of the calculations and results.

Prizes will not be picked until after Round 2. Sorry, Round 1 winner (whoever that is), you'll have to wait a week to pick your prize.
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NathanASE's Avatar
United States
1511 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  4:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NathanASE to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Dang it!! If I hadn't changed my golds bid from $65000 to $60000 10 minutes before the deadline this morning I would have been in the lead!! What was I thinking? Lol, I knew it would be at less one more bid!! O well..
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ThisIsFun's Avatar
United States
2480 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  6:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ThisIsFun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Okie dokie, I've run the numbers, checked several times (fixed bunches of mistakes, should be correct now), and the winner of Round 1 is...


mcshilling



Congratulations! Your average error for the six coins in round one was a very low 8.75%!

Spreadsheet of the results, calculated by the formula described on page one of this thread:

Tif-Contest-#3:--Guess-The-Hammer,-Ancient-Edition

Good luck with round 2, everyone! And if you are reading this thread and didn't submit a bid sheet for Round 1, you can still enter Round 2. Deadline for Round 2 bid sheets is Wednesday, 9/25/13, 8 am.

Winners can pick their prizes from the offered coins after Round 2. I will determine the order of picking.
Edited by ThisIsFun
09/18/2013 6:48 pm
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mcshilling's Avatar
Canada
9160 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  7:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mcshilling to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
WHAT for sure, wow, I need the fruit.



and I thought echizento had it.

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echizento's Avatar
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23731 Posts
 Posted 09/18/2013  8:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add echizento to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Congrats mcshilling.
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John1's Avatar
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56855 Posts
 Posted 09/19/2013  04:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add John1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
mcshilling
John1
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ThisIsFun's Avatar
United States
2480 Posts
 Posted 09/22/2013  09:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ThisIsFun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


*****REMINDER*****


Deadline for entering Round 2 is this Wednesday morning, 9/25/13, 8 a.m.

See page one of this thread for entry information. Even if you didn't enter Round 1 you can still enter and be eligible for a prize!



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ThisIsFun's Avatar
United States
2480 Posts
 Posted 09/22/2013  09:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ThisIsFun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


*****REMINDER*****


Deadline for entering Round 2 is this Wednesday morning, 9/25/13, 8 a.m.

See page one of this thread for entry information. Even if you didn't enter Round 1 you can still enter and be eligible for a prize!



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