What Is Considered Low Mintage? - Coin Community Forum

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Author	Replies: 8 / Views: 12,021
NuMoosematist Pillar of the Community Canada 867 Posts	Posted 02/14/2014 10:30 am Hi folks! On another thread new member Dominic asked: "at which point is a NCLT coin considered low mintage? 20K? 10K? 5K?" So I thought it would be appropriate to start a new thread on this topic to allow you to voice your opinions. Here is my take: I think there are several factors to consider when deciding if a NCLT coin has "low mintage". Firstly, it depends on the the metal pure silver, gold or platinum and most importantly upon the popularity of the coin's design or theme. An example for silver would be the Group of Seven coins which each had a mintage of 7,000. Not all proved to be popular and there are still three that are available at issue price on the mint's site. Another example is the Spring Maple Canopy with a mintage of 7,500 sold out very quickly, while the Autumn coin, the second in the series with the same mintage is still available for the issue price at at least one dealer. 10,000 I would not consider a low mintage, e.g. the Laura Secord coin is still for sale. However the Superman Hologram coin has been sold out for months. It might be safe to say that neither is 15,000, e.g. the Martin Short coin is still available from the mint. But the Modern Day Superman sold out relatively quickly. As far as 5,000 is concerned, the Lake Superior coin sold out fast, but the subscription to the five coin series is still available. Switching over to pure gold, the 1/2 oz Jacques Cartier 2013 Explorer series coin has a mintage of 2,000 which seems low, but after one year of being on sale it was archived by the mint with less than 1,500 sold at $1,199.95! Also the 1/4 oz Allegory coin at $649.95 is still available many months after its release. On the other hand, the 14 karat 12 gram Superman coin with also a mintage of 2,000 and and issue price of $750 sold out in less than two days. Really low mintage coins like the pure gold Polar Bear at 600 still took a few months to sell out, while the Robert Bateman pure gold Moose with a mintage of only 750 never sold out before it was archived. (Go figure...) The Canadian Provincial and territorial 14 k Coats of Arms series with mintage of only 500 per coin has been a dud, e.g. very few Quebec coins were sold. (Hmmmm...) Lastly, before I bore you all to tears with this post, regarding pure 1 oz platinum coins. The Bateman Bull Moose with a mintage of a mere 250 was available much longer at issue price than was the 1 oz Fighting Bison, mintage 250 (awaitng stock at the moment). The 1 oz Bald Eagle, mintage sold out in a matter of days. Oh and one more if you will indulge me. The 1 Kilogram pure silver Bateman - The Moose Family, mintage of 1,000, $2,249.95 was archived before it sold out and at least one is still available from a dealer at issue price. I hope this helps to answer Dominic's and my question.... Now what do you folks think? Edited by NuMoosematist 02/14/2014 10:35 am Report this Post to the Staff

kuh_85 Pillar of the Community Canada 2366 Posts	Posted 02/14/2014 10:49 am It's a matter of opinion. Your opinion sounds more thought out than most :-). Personally I don't think about it much in terms of 'low' or 'high'. I like to know what the mintage actually is and I like to know what the value is but I don't find that a 'low' mintage is sufficient to determine value of NCLT in and of itself so I don't worry about it. Circulation coins are a different story. Report this Post to the Staff
Silveroid Pillar of the Community Canada 6768 Posts	Posted 02/14/2014 11:33 am Good examples, NuMoosematist. My view on this is very simple: Low and High Mintage this is the measure of quantity, so I would not relate it to the "sell-out period" variable (which depends on many factors). So, from what I've seen last 4 years, the "Low" mintage for RCM Silver NCLT will be 5.000 units. Need to add, that for Perth Mint and NZ Mint, I would also count 5.000 as "low mintage", but this quantity not really fasts sells there...depends on the coin popularity. Report this Post to the Staff
john100 Pillar of the Community Canada 5344 Posts	Posted 02/14/2014 11:41 am For me, theme of a coin is more important than just mintage, the Farewell to penny series even the 1/2 oz. silver coin with 30,000 mintage are selling above issue, take the 5 oz. penny mintage 1500, sells well above issue but not many other 5 oz. coins sells above issue. Last year only the superman coins did okay except for the unlimited 1/2 oz. coin, mintage is important but the coin's theme trumps. The RCM is just producing too many coins with useless topics Report this Post to the Staff
commems CCF Master Historian of Commemorative Coins United States 12604 Posts	Posted 02/14/2014 12:09 pm I think it's necessary to distinguish between "mintage" and "market supply." I think it's important not to redefine the term "mintage" to include market factors. A coin's mintage is defined as the number of pieces struck - this number is not impacted by demand (or lack of demand) in the marketplace. It is what it is. I think the question being asked is "At what potential mintage level does a coin become perceived as being scarce, in demand and likely of potential price appreciation on the secondary market?" I believe that NuMoosematist has provided a logical perspective in his answers to this question. The perception of what is "low mintage" does vary by the metal used in a coin, the quality of the coin's design and the popularity of its theme. For example, if the RCM released a one-ounce silver $20 coin priced at $99.95 with a mintage of 2,000 it would sell out almost instantly. When they offer a one-ounce gold priced at $2,799.95 with a mintage of 2,000, however, collectors are able to decide whether they want to buy it at their leisure. Both have the same low mintage, but the perceived "market supply" of the two coins is very different. Often, "low mintage" opinions are driven by perceived (hyped?) initial demand for a given coin. Sometimes the demand is artificial and a coin that initially appeared to be in high demand/low supply turns out to be the opposite with plenty of coins available in the marketplace. Regardless of the scenario, however, the mintage for the coin stayed the same. All that said, essentially no modern NCLT coin is truly scarce or rare (save some specially-produced "coins" with mintages of 10 or 20). That's a big part of the reason why so few show real, long-term price appreciation even when their actual mintage is "low." Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved. Report this Post to the Staff
Dcadon Rest in Peace Canada 1360 Posts	Posted 02/14/2014 1:57 pm Another ridiculous example is the Mongolian Gulo Gulo (Wolverine) it was a Single year issue, mintage 2,500. One ounce. .999 fine silver. It's initial price - best I can find was only about $70 Canadian at the time (2009) but now it commanding a estimated $2500 to $3000. Let's be realistic, 2,500 pieces isn't very rare - but if the whole world is looking for one, the demand raises the price to exorbitant levels. Which brings me to one of my pet peeves - on the Mint's website, I don't know how often I've read a review that uses the word 'unique' to describe a coin with 10's of thousands of mintages. Drives me nuts. Yet, as I mentioned on another topic, I have a 2010 Olympic 'Canada's First Gold' - mintage of the same as the year 2010 - yet it too can often be purchased at or below initial list price. With the Millions of Canadians - proud to see that event for the First Gold on Canadian soil... That coin just didn't produce what I expected - a sell out, and dramatic rise in price. Edited by Dcadon 02/14/2014 1:59 pm Report this Post to the Staff
NuMoosematist Pillar of the Community Canada 867 Posts	Posted 02/14/2014 5:37 pm Quote: ...I think the question being asked is "At what potential mintage level does a coin become perceived as being scarce, in demand and likely of potential price appreciation on the secondary market?"... You're quite right, commems, this is exactly how I interpreted Dominic's question. So we are in agreement that real point is whether a coin turns out to be popular or not with regard to possible increases in value. However, if one really likes a coin, the mintage, low or high should not matter to the collector. And @ Dcadon I too was very surprised when I found out that the 2010 coin celebrating Canada's first Gold Medal did not sell out, and a couple were actually recently sold for $50.00 less than the issue price. This example shows how mintage really has little to do with a coin's desirability or future value. Report this Post to the Staff
falcon Valued Member Canada 457 Posts	Posted 02/15/2014 12:28 am Reading these low mintage topics got me thinking I wonder how many coins I have with a mintage of less then 10,000 - < 7,500 - < 5000 - < 1000 etc. I dug out my trusty books and figured it out. This list does not count doubles I have of some coins. I have about 30 + world silver coins with mintage between 999 and 10,000 most are F12 and F15 but I have coins like the 2013 tigers family and 2012 long eared hedgehog etc. Canada coins About 22 between 7,501 and 10,000 18 between 5,001 and 7,500 35 between 1,001 and 5,000 20 between 49 and a 1,000 mostly Hockey and 2007 silver loons, a lot of the hockey coins are less then 500 this last number goes up to about 35 if I count doubles I also have 11 money fair coin sets with a mintage of 500 I would guess 95% of these NCLT coins are on ebay right now for around issue price. To me that means that even less then 5,000 is to much for 95% of the stuff being made world wide.(there are always exceptions) Some crazy examples are the Dang Bird 25 cent coins! I'm missing 4 of the first 5 and I refuse to pay $150.00 to $300.00 for a crappy little piece of nickle. Even worse knowing they sold 12,000 to 14,000 ! each of them. By the way, who am I kidding.... I will probably buy the 4 quarters one day It seems some of the hardest or most costly coins to get are ones with no known mintage, for example I have 5 different mule coins and they all cost me a lot more then I wanted to pay, but...I have them now By the way this post needs pics lol I might have to clean my desk off and lay them all out Report this Post to the Staff
Dcadon Rest in Peace Canada 1360 Posts	Posted 02/15/2014 09:33 am My avatar is one of only 1000 mintages. It was my first 5 ounce coin, but has only doubled - form what I've seen in 'asking' price. Report this Post to the Staff
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