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 Replies: 36 / Views: 6,224 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1700 Posts |
I am writing this thread because there are a few things about the mint products that I am concerned about. (When I first really started learning about coins) Three years ago, the silver price was around $27 per ounce. The 1 oz silver coins were not very expensive: I remember seeing a few 1 oz silver coins on the mint website for ten or twenty dollars above spot (I could be wrong, but my point is, the price nowadays is really absurd compared to a few years ago, even when the silver price was ironically higher). Last year, when the O Canada series came out, the 1 oz coins were $90 and up. When the Sochi Olympics approached, the $100 for 100 came out along with the Sochi coins priced over $100. Gold coins, too, are in the same condition. Another way to see this is by comparing the pricing of RCM versus US Mint. The five ounce non-billion coins, for example. A few weeks ago Colonial Acres had a mint product sale of RCM Overstocked products. The O Canada beaver was priced $226 instead of $280 which is still on sale on the mint website. This explains clearly that even when the mint pricing to the general public is very absurd, the dealers still get a price that is many percents lower. RCM is the monopoly of the commemorative coin collecting industry. My question is: since RCM will always sustain itself with its ridiculously high prices, is it smarter to purchase from dealers that often have sale prices? For the residents of BC, after HST was taken off, would it be better to buy from Colonial Acres which charges often no shipping and no tax on gold coins? (Is "waiting for lower prices" the answer to purchasing and avoiding the RCM prices?) Comments are welcomed. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts |
There is a reason why Gatewest, Canadian Coin and Canada post to some extent have started to give discounts through rewards programs, they never did before last fall. I think the RCM has over supplied the NCLY market with poorly themed coins. The dealers simply has too much dead stock and have started discounting, you probably like 2013 with exception of one or two coins, you will be able to purchase later at lower prices. This past week, my rep contacted me everyday with a new coin offer, use to get one preadvance mc alert, business must be slow. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
867 Posts |
Quote: ...(Is "waiting for lower prices" the answer to purchasing and avoiding the RCM prices?)... Hi Petersun, I think you already know the answer to this rhetorical question. It's yes, yes and yes...  Quote:
...This past week, my rep contacted me everyday with a new coin offer, use to get one preadvance mc alert, business must be slow. Yikes john100, this sounds like harassment.  As most of you already know I believe there are too many NCLT coin chasing a shrinking number of collectors. Therefore we can expect more sales from dealers anxious to unload their ever growing inventories. Edited by NuMoosematist
02/08/2014 7:33 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
532 Posts |
It's hit and miss for me. I will only pay slightly above spot for bullion coins. A slight premium for quality. We have had to limit our set purchases because of the crazy prices. As long as the market will pay 100$ for one ounce because of a limited quantity or a particular piece of art it's up the buyer to decide on the premium. When buying a new coin it's hit and miss. The decision comes down to a few things for me. Do I like the coin? How rare is it? Is it reasonably priced? If I no longer want it can I get what I paid for it back? The closer the coin cost is to it's base bullion value, the better your chance of getting your money out of it one day even if it's common or not popular. For example I bought the Great Lakes set because added to the silver content I have a beautiful piece of art that I think will go up in value and be appreciated by whoever owns it. I buy silver bullion coins as an investment for the cheapest I can get even if the face value is lower. and I insist on a government backed coin. Some coins are big winners, Take the superman or dinosaurs sets or candy cane coin. Big winners if you bought into them early. Even the crystal coins. I don't own a one either. Just not what I like. You could also take a chance on an obscure coin nobody likes in hopes the mint destroys enough of them when they don't sell to make them a rare coin later on. It's at least how I justify to my wife why I want that coin.  |
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1700 Posts |
Here's something that many coin collectors:
Many have a coin collectors have budgets. Say that one buys a (or more than 1) $100 silver coin and then wants another one but cannot afford it.
From what I can see, here are the possible things that can happen,
1) If we look at the mint pricing system in 2011, buying a coin from the mint at the price of issue can always give you some type of a profit. The coin collector may sell a few of them to get the extra $100; however,
2) In 2014, many dealers get the coins at absurd (low) prices. In my analysis, there is no way to gurantee short-term profit (I'd say five or more years) by purchasing the 100 for 100 coins.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Well, I used to chase after the coins I like. Now, I just wait, watch the market, and decide whether or not I really want it. Like the candy cane coin. I decided to wait on it. It showed up over and over again in various places. I was even called by the PO who offered it to me. I ordered it and didn't like the size of the candy cane, so I sent it back. A few weeks later, the local PO offered it to me for 20% off. I would have taken it, but I was no longer interested in it.  Discounts, offers, and the Black Friday sale tells me it's worth the wait for lower prices whilst making a decision. Funny how things change.... it's a buyer's market.... lots of choices!  |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1823 Posts |
My wife and I have a limit about $5000.00 a year,we buy what we like you are right nclt coins are getting out of hand might spend 1/2 of that this year.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1700 Posts |
My point is: it is impossible nowadays to gain a budget by simply selling older coins.
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Valued Member
Canada
312 Posts |
*** Staff Edit - One more post like that and you're done here. First and only warning. ***
Edited by Whitetail Junkie
02/08/2014 9:40 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts |
Speaking with the rep a couple days ago, he let it be known that this months release sales are slow, and that maybe the mint has too many releases. I still think the RCM will only change when their major dealers stop ordering blindly, kind of reminds me of the sports card boom and bust. The Perth Mint has suffered for years because they restruck some coins a few years ago, the RCM is getting close to doing the same thing with these bullion mapleleafs, and other proof and bullion issues with different finishes, all adds up to unhappy collectors, turning a 25.00 coin into a 80.00 version |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Good points, john100! Thanks for the heads up!
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Rest in Peace
Canada
1360 Posts |
I mentioned just this, when discussing the Kilo Owl. When Silver was this low - Early in 2010, the mint was selling kilo coins for about $1200 - $1400. Today's price, I think is based on the 'buy price' of silver from their supplier last year - They likely purchased tonnes of silver on spec at $40 to $50 per ounce - that it would continue it's rise to it's established 'usual' level of about 1/25 that of gold spot - not many were prepared to see both gold and silver drop so substantially over the past 12 months. I certainly didn't.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
871 Posts |
If you aren't in a rush and willing to take a gamble, wait a year after release and find it on ebay for cheaper. Some coins have appreciated past issue price but a majority are sold for below issue price. |
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Valued Member
Canada
246 Posts |
On my side, I stop to collect series, like "O Canada", "Great Lakes" and I finish the one I already start, like the Glow in the Dark Dinosaur and the bird series which seems to have no ending... Anyway, my point is since I do this, the RCM did not control my purchase because I want to finish a series I started... Look at the Bison, 4 coins this year, and so on... Why would I let the RCM control my desire? It's up to the consumer to control the money you are aware to spend and not the RCM to decide for yourself... And I think @john100 is right with the card bublle in the 1990 era... I was there at this time as a teenager and it was a great lesson for me that serve me in my life since then... It's always the same, buy low, sell high... The majority of people take the train when the price is at the highest stake... Simple questoin : "Why do we need to convince ourself to buy a NCLT coins with those price even if we know that those price are overpriced?". At this time on my side, I finish my series, and I'm almost on the side-line and maybe I'm going to retired myself of this craziness overpriced coins. And after couple years I'll look if the market will come to it's fair value priced like it was 5 years ago... I think we should not pay more and 2X the bullions prices for a 1oz gold or silver for NCLT coins... Just like stocks on the market, why are you willing to pay lots of dollar to own a company, maybe you're in love with the company, maybe you're expecting a big growth in sales and revenue and you're willing to take the risk of paying more to own the stock... There's people who think the gold will be a 2000$ in the next twelve months and also people who say it will be under 1000$... It's depend on what side of the fence you are... For me, I think the spot price of silver and gold will be almost at the same price in the next 12 months. So at this time, buying NCLT coins at 4-5 times the spot price it's overpriced... |
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CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
 United States
12256 Posts |
I'm a "data person" so I did a very quick and dirty analysis of the average RCM selling price for an unadorned one-ounce, 0.9999 fine silver NCLT coin vs. the silver spot price for the period 2010 to 2013. Here's what I found:  Reading the table: "Avg Spot $" represents the annualized average spot price for one ounce of silver. "Avg RCM $" represents the most common/average selling price for a one ounce silver coin without any type of "bedazzling." "RCM:Spot" is the ratio of "Avg RCM $" vs. "Avg Spot $" with higher ratios signifying a higher RCM markup over the silver spot price. What the table shows is that the RCM's selling prices for its unadorned one ounce silver coins in 2011 and 2012 were priced closer to the silver spot price vs. prices in 2010 and 2013. As a collector, I'd obviously like to see the RCM maintain ratios under 3:1. The problem is, the RCM has found that collectors will pay the higher prices (albeit grudgingly) for many of its coins and so does not feel compelled to lower its prices. If sales continue to be slower than anticipated, the RCM might reassess their pricing model. However, until sales targets are missed dramatically for a large (and growing) percentage of their coins, they have little incentive to reduce prices. Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
Edited by commems
02/09/2014 01:08 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2124 Posts |
To sum up: We are on February and there are many people here that are already waiting for the next Black Friday deals ... I don't know if that answer your question...
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Replies: 36 / Views: 6,224 |
Posted 02/08/2014 7:32 pm
