Funny JK I love how all the fools try to push that spot higher then it is.....
I recall a couple years ago here someone was trying to buy some silver from a seller on ebay an at time silver was close to 40 per oz. The seller was trying to get 50 per as their reasoning was this......
"Well heck it's gonna be 50 per oz soon and beyond, so a great deal how can ya go wrong?"
What a STUPID STATEMENT, and my mistake it was a Craig's list tool lol. That is kind of seller you don't even wanna respond to with words, simply remove the Bugs Bunny white glove-add brick and begin the forehand backhand treatment til you have just brick dust in the glove lol....
Boy, that kind of thinking, that QE is here to stay, and basically the front running, makes me cringe as a trader. Basically its assuming that the Fed is going to do that.... and as we traders say, if its obvious then you better be cautious,,, because markets fool the vast majority of folks.
Again, the selling we have seen, I don't think that was some sort of correction. I correction in the metals would not be on going for several years, and especially putting the assets toward yearly lows.
I tend to lean on the fact that PMs are broken assets going forward and at best they stay flat... all this I base on price action, not my personal feelings. I have seen these type price movements in assets across the board and they just don't turn around 1-2-3. Finally, I will, as always, let the market show me and tell me,,, and I;ll make sure I am on the right side of the market.
But for now, I don't see much to do in gold and silver for my time frame as a trend following trader.
right now for months what has worked is being involved in the high beta, momentum upward trend market leaders such as TSLA QIHU Z FB LNKD NFLX etc.
Quote: Now they are talking about unemployment being around 5 percent before they begin tapering
If that's the case, it can only mean QE to collapse. Official unemployment figures are tampered, it's at least twice that, if not more. It will never return to 5%.. ...unless they're talking about migrant workers...
Quote: i hear you basebal. I never back out of a sale, though I have ended one or two early that had NO bidders. But I have never ended one that had a bid on it. Though I have to tell you, it is no fun selling a 1965 Pontiac Tripower intake for 99 cents, when all of my sales before and after that one, for the same item, were over $300.
I had something similar happen to me a while back though no where near as bad but that led me to just using buy it nows unless theres a special for auction listings once they made the fees the same. I have no problem with people who kill listings that have no bids on it, until someone bids its fair game as far as I'm concerned.
Quote: Why, simple RESERVES tick bidders off and most key they are TOO COSTLY via the reserve price ebay charges for them and all the bidders often flee on reserve auctions as I see it all the time.....
I was shocked how brutal the fee was when I looked into it one time. I do kind of hate the reserve price thing too though its really just driving up false interest and wasting everyones time until its met which does seem to fall short a lot. When it doesn't get there and you see the item relisted it just reminds me to much of a deal not being honored. Just start the auction at your reserve price. 1 bid for the price you want is better than 50 bids that falls short.
Quote: Official unemployment figures are tampered, it's at least twice that, if not more. It will never return to 5%..
If you ignore the size of the work force it easily could. Give it another year or so and more people will be coming off the books. Of course that will in no way be reflective of the real number, but neither is the 7 or 8 percent they claim now which is really probably not to far off from 15.
Personally I think itd be a big stretch to shoot for 5 and that may just be a way of being able to test the waters for slowing it down where you could say its going to slow but not till we hit this number and see how people react.
Sure would have been nice if they would have used those stimulus packages for something productive like fixing all the bridges
"Sure would have been nice if they would have used those stimulus packages for something productive like fixing all the bridges"
Those road job stimulous packages were actually counter productive. My company for example got caught having to be involved in many of them as a utility. We were unprepared for a major ramp up of the road jobs that came at us, and many of our growth monies were spent trying to keep our plant out of the paths of the road crews. The feds allocated us a fund of money that fell far short of the actual costs and we had to eat quite a bit as well.
The other thing people are overlooking is the employment growth right now - has trended to part time. So while the rate is dropping - the actual jobs being taken are paying a lot less than they have in the past due to fewer actual hours being worked.
Like I said before - there are so many mixed numbers - hardly anyone can say the economy is "healthy" and in my opinion it isn't going to get any better when Obamacare takes off. Those part time employees are going to find it tough to make ends meet with the health care coverage they have to pay for or pay a penalty if they don't. It will start another ugly ripple here in the near future.
One of the reasons the fed said they wanted a lower unemployment number is that they recognize that the falling numbers don't indicate a positive employment number, but rather that folks are falling off the rolls. It is widely recognized that all the Government has to do to say that unemployment is at 4 to 5 percent is to eliminate the additional benefits past the first 6 months.
The other thing is that the wealthy who get the easy money don't want their money to lose value via hyperinflation and the Fed is now on record as saying they want full employment....with low wages. Because if people can't buy things then the prices won't go up.....wow...I wish I was making this up.
I would love to have a time machine and go to a library and read how this all turned out. I can just see people wondering if the whole population was on massive drugs not to have realized what was going on. lol
Quote: people wondering if the whole population was on massive drugs not to have realized what was going on
Well actually; Nearly 7 in 10 Americans are on prescription drugs, study finds http://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-...n-drugs.html That might be the reason why...with anti-depressants being the second most prescribed.
Boy that's a lot of people on prescription drugs. So, with Toilet To Tap Water concept... do all trace pharmaceuticals get filtered out? That could be interesting.
The reaction to the Fed minutes is baffling to me. Everything I watch or am invested in went up. US and foreign stocks and bonds, REITs, and PM. I can see why stocks would be up since they love the Feb pumping money into the economy. I understand bonds would be up because if the Fed stops holding down rates and rates start to rise, bond funds will be negatively effected by rising interest rates. I understand that REIT's like the Fed holding down mortgage rates. I don't understand PM's. PM's should move opposite stocks but I guess this could be people still worried about the Fed causing inflation.
Quote: One of the reasons the fed said they wanted a lower unemployment number is that they recognize that the falling numbers don't indicate a positive employment number, but rather that folks are falling off the rolls. It is widely recognized that all the Government has to do to say that unemployment is at 4 to 5 percent is to eliminate the additional benefits past the first 6 months.
We should expect total employment to drop as the largest generation in the US population retires. Some are retiring before they want to but that doesn't change the fact that the retirement of the Boomer generation was going to cause a drop in the total labor pool. The US birth rate has been steadily falling and is below the replacement rate. It is currently at 1.89 births per woman. The USA is only still increasing in population due to immigration.
Quote: So, with Toilet To Tap Water concept... do all trace pharmaceuticals get filtered out?
No they don't. Anything you flush or put down sewer goes into our waterways. That is also why it is recommended to throw away unused pharmaceuticals instead of flushing them down the toilet. Sewage treatment plants only remove the solids and use bacteria to break down the human waste. They do nothing to remove chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Again two days back I said that little push is meaningless and it would take several upswing days to convince me anything is about to happen minus the buy window opening back up....
And it's Friday so we seeing the opposite of what most Fridays have been lately with price decline goin into weekend verses a push up......
yea, as a trader I always want to see follow through. Instead of at least staying flat, gold drips lower for two days in a row.
The big takeaway? Gold and silver are extremely weak, the move on Wes. was short covering and as I have said, there has to be something else outside of more QE to be a catalyst for higher PM prices.
"because markets fool the vast majority of folks."
I never gamble cause I know the house wins most of time,can't beat that 10% juice in long run....
Like a wise book keeper once told me, ya gotta hit 7 out of 10 games and beat 7 point spreads along the way just to break into the black. Same thing in the paper trades I would figure....
the key to my success has always been to listen to the market and only make moves, big moves when the market confirms and I make sure all the probabilities are on my side.
As far as gold and silver are concerned, for my time frame, there's been no reason to put money to buy nor to sell short. My last big trade in selling short was months ago.
For me, I would only be interested in selling short if gold and silver got to yearly lows. As far as buying, that would depend on price levels, in the form of trend lines being broken to the upside. That hasn't happened either so I move on to other assets to trade.
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Posted 09/19/2013 12:28 pm
