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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,424 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@yingyang
you know I dont know what to think, really I dont. Even if I ventured a guess, I would be wrong, I have no crystal ball. The one thing I can say with certainty is that despite the amount of QE, low interest rates and more, silver couldn't even make blow out numbers in terms of its value.
Going forward, I see lower prices for silver UNTIL they can manage to snap out of their downtrend. Until that is penetrated, they either go lower and just chop range bound with no where to go. What will get PM prices higher? I dont know but its safe to say that QE from central banks isn't going to help them go higher.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
lets take a quick look here, Ill have charts up during the week.
So we start off with a bounce in gold and silver today. You can still use last week charts for reference for price. Looking at price, we can see that both are still locked in a narrow range.
What made today interesting was the attempt to rise out of the lower range and then end up giving their gains to settle on the lower end of the range. Clearly there is a lot of price resistance above that is holding down silver and gold.
We have been seeing this type of price action, where we get a violent bounce in gold and silver, for several days, then they fizzle out. We also have seen price action where gold and silver appear ready to fall off the cliff... and then they manage to avoid re-testing their yearly lows.
I tend to think that the probabilities are very high that they will re-test the yearly lows. At that point, what happens next will be interesting. We could see the sellers push price below their yearly lows and beyond.
Again, the most important thing to do at this point is be patient and watch. If we get that break of the yearly lows, dont go rushing in to buy if you must,,, give it some times to see how it flushes. Breaking the downtrend, if its going to do it, will be a lot of hard work and take time. Gains must not be given back and it should be a steady churn higher with minimal give backs. That scenario I dont see it.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
just a quick update.... and with today,, silver and gold have again given up all their gains.
Folks, this is not the time and period to be considering gold and silver for the long haul. AT this point, the safest thing is to step back and let this thing settle down.
It would be wiser to let silver and gold break their downtrends rather than insist that the price is coming back and continue to buy.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2189 Posts |
yup7676
At what point would you agree with yourself to buy? I mean do you have a monetary value in the back of your mind that will tell you it's time to buy? If it dropped to $10.00 an oz and the charts tell you it's still in a down trend you would still not buy? I'm just curious
Edited by jasper62
12/17/2013 8:03 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2189 Posts |
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Edited by jasper62
12/17/2013 8:01 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Thanks for the update, Yup! I'm learning to step back and sit on the fence. This is a real tough resistance training exercise, but it makes one stronger!  I really want a tube of those new Arctic silver fox 1 1/2 oz. coin but will wait for a better price.  @ Jasper, just adding my take to your question... I guess we all have our breaking point when to buy, but yes, even if silver were $10 an ounce, and it were in a downtrend, I would wait. I've noticed that coins sell out, then they reappear at a later date. People return them and there they are again... only cheaper it seems... at least that's the trend for now... |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@jasper
This is how I view silver and gold. this same view however goes for any asset I am trading and looking to make a profit on.
the most profitable trades are when
a- there is a strong trend
b- buyers or sellers are present and show commitment
Keeping those two things in mind help explain what my mindset is right now. The only money to be made on the trend side is down,,, therefore getting short has been profits for me. I have been short gold and silver many times this year. Furthermore, there has been no real commitment from buyers to push up and hold PM prices higher. All we see is a constant push lower and gains that never hold.
So what am I looking for? What price point do I say "ok looks like the tide is turning?" that's pretty simple. For starters I am looking for a point where prices stop attempting to near yearly lows. The second thing is to look for price gains to hold, grind and chop around and then rise again. This sort of price action would be very helpful in getting us higher prices. Think of this as rinse and repeat.
So what kind of targets in price am I looking for if there is to be a reversal?
For silver, if we could see silver grind to 23 price point, that is a good start to say that things are changing. Seeing that hold would be a start. Zeroing in on how you mention the 10 dollar price point, if it got there, and if it was making yearly lows at 10 I would not be a buyer. Rather, if silver was at 10 and that was a yearly low, I would be a seller of silver. Remember, no asset is too high to buy and no asset is too low to sell.
Now you might be saying to yourself " but silver at 10 dollars is just to much a steal,, thats too cheap its a great buy right there".
The problem tho is two things- silver could continue to drop lower from 10. Thats a risk I am not willing to take. Finally, the argument could be made that you could afford to hold silver at these "low prices". Again thats a risk I am not willing to take. I have no idea or assurance that putting my money into silver at say, 10 dollars is going to work. It is entirely possible that say it doesn't go lower than 10, but stays around 10 and chops around for years and years and years and ends up being dead money.
SO there you have it. IF silver can grind up around the 23ish area, I would be looking to be a buyer. Thats a start. Again, if the price action is confirming a downtrend, I am a seller, not a buyer, even at 10 dollars, provided there is confirmation to sell it.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Folks, we have the FOMC minutes out now, watch and see the reaction to the news. The REACTION is more important than what the Fed says.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
There should be one clear take away from the action today- money is NOT flowing to gold and silver.
Remember that for later, we'll come back to it.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
I really want a tube of those new Arctic silver fox 1 1/2 oz. coin but will wait for a better price. Im sure you know the Canadian market better than I and pay more attention to it. For general bullion I think your plan is a good one, I would just caution that if that series or things of that nature act more as numismatic items its not always best to miss out. Only is they look like theyll be getting Numismatic value though. If they just play as bullion or can be had cheaper on the secondary market disregard that. I also wanted to make a point that I think gets lost from time to time too. Life is short, dont be afraid to treat yourself every now and then. That doesn't mean go out an make huge purchases of bullion unless money means nothing to you (in which case please send some my way ) but getting a coin here and there you really like doesn't matter much in the long run. There is a value to enjoyment and happyness. Edited by basebal21
12/18/2013 4:25 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I agree with the above. I think a coin here and there is good. But more than that, if you really want and gotta have it, give it more time, you'll end up paying less.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Ok lets get right into it So we have yet another FOMC meeting under our belt and the last of 2013. We got our minutes, which showed what we ALREADY knew was coming,, a tapering of sorts. The markets have priced this in and reflected it as in the form of lower bonds and lower PMs. As I have said many times, markets start acting MONTHS in advance of the news and when its released. We have therefore come to a fork in the road. First, the reaction to the FOMC minutes by gold and silver was negative. It appears gold and silver once again want to retest their yearly lows. Yet, some are of the mind set that now that the news is officially out, that we get one more flush and then gold and silver find a bottom. To me, I think we pay attention to price as the ultimate signal of what happens next. Price is saying that again, we have high probabilities that we retest yearly lows. lets get right into the charts  First of all, major reversal in price. Notice that GLD closed near its low after having been up much higher during the day. You can see that were prices continue is the same from last week, at the lower end of the range. Now here is the deal... the more prices keep probing the lower end of the range (reference the last dark blue line) the higher the chance that the level finally gives in. That happens, well lower prices will be around the corner  Exact same price action here. Again, SLV testing the lower end of its range. You'll also notice the reversal in price, with silver ending up at the low of the day. Here we are again with the PMs, once again wanting to test the lower end of their range. Whats on tap then? Here are the scenarios I am prepared for- 1- a retest of the yearly lows 2- a retest of the yearly lows and a flush past them, bringing much lower prices 3- yet another bounce up from these levels putting us into a range. Tomorrow should give us more clues as to what direction this goes. The longer silver and gold stay down here tho, the higher chances that a major flush happens and the harder it becomes for gold and silver to get higher. Hope the charts help and that you can see how things are unraveling. To me, I am only following the trend, nothing more. To me, I am looking to make a profit, whether things slide or go higher. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
well looks like we cracked that range... again....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I made a bet back in March that by years end we would be below $20/oz Silver. Lol, even if I lose I still look like Nostradamus! Because it will not be by much, and the spirit of the bet will still be mine!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
Very good prediction! And Merry Christmas to all that celebrate!
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,424 |
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Posted 12/17/2013 12:03 am
