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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,433 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
yea nice call and hat tip to Jim.
I think, based on the price action, sub 20 dollars in silver will be the norm.
Also, it appears we are running into a lot of support from previous times in both PMs,,, charts to come in the coming days. I apologize for the slow updates, just a lot of other stuff worth trading. (like TWTR, lol) just going with the trend friend.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
sorry for being behind here. I plan to either tonight or tomorrow bring some new charts for the week ahead. I would like to share some observations-
Gold-
Came close 2 weeks ago to testing yearly lows, only to bounce higher. As you might recall, and I still am hearing, everyone and his brother now is saying to sell gold and silver. With this being out and upfront, I expect more chop and bouncing before we see lower prices.
There is no doubt tho, gold prices are very weak and still clinging for dear life from testing yearly lows.
Silver- Fighting at 20. Again, just as it seemed 2 weeks it would drop, it experience a bounce. However, don't fool yourself, prices by no means are saying that they have finally stopped going down. Again, everyone and his brother is saying that its time to sell gold and silver.
Bottomline- markets fool everyone. When the public starts talking about the obvious,,, especially in markets,, well the obvious doesn't happen or it happens at a later time wrong foots folks. For that reason, with gold and silver I expect more chop and bounce until the next major move.
i;ll bring some charts either today or tomorrow, so thank you for your patience.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Ok lets get into it- Been nothing but a grind lower, retracement these past few weeks. That's it. All very boring. However, every time we see this price action, ranges on the lower end have developed with each passing week. You know what happens with that...... we are establishing a moment where a major move breaks and happens, in this case lower. In terms of price action, there is NOTHING that is saying prices have bottomed for good with silver and gold. Furthermore, the longer these ranges hold, the harder and more time will be spent by gold and silver trying to get over them, if they even do try to go higher from here. Remember, all those areas where gold and silver have been sold, these price points equal supply, areas where sellers will continue to sell gold and silver. Ok lets first look at our proxy GLD which illustrates exactly the ranges.  Take a look where I have each arrow pointing. Green arrow, white arrow, red arrow and now the blue arrow. Price drop, churn in each of these ranges, which can be seen at each colored arrow,,,, and then a drop occurs. Take a look at the blue arrow. Can you see what happens next? Thats right, the high probable price action is another drop and range. Yes, a lot of folks have scoffed at daily price movements but as you can see its been painting a picture, saying STAY AWAY from gold. Refusing and deliberately choosing to ignore price action WILL make you a poor person and thinking that prices are stable or have stopped going down are improper thinking. In addition, anyone saying "in the end, no one really knows where the price of silver and gold are going " is WRONG. Again, just by paying attention to price, WE DO KNOW where prices are going, and they are lower. So the picture doesn't look good if you are looking for higher prices. However, if you are selling short, such as myself and countless other traders, there will be nice money to be made as this powerful downtrend continues. Sliver is no different. It also have the same ranges, with each break lower leading to a range, then a drop, then a range, then a drop. Just a steady train crash in slow motion. Again, by paying attention to price we know that silver is also in a strong downtrend and we know that lower prices are on tap until this price pattern stops. Looks look at the chart for our proxy for silver, SLV.  So there you have it. Nothing has changed. Just a lot of chop, drop, chop, drop, chop, chop, drop. Both metals are still in downtrends. Strong, continued buying and accumulation is NOT present with gold and silver. There are no "foot prints" left by the institutions and funds that they are buying silver and gold. If they were, prices would not be falling as they are. Dont be fooled into thinking that someone is buying cheap. Rather, it can be said, what is cheap, will become cheaper. As far as investments, silver and gold are not the place to be at for now. As always, feel free to ask questions and I will update as I always do. Together, if we see prices change, we'll spot it together.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
just a small note here-
so, just as we had discussed last night, we see both silver and gold running back into the lower end of that last range.
I would expect we run to the lower end of the range over the week and then we'll see if we get another bounce or slice right through,
keep your eyes peeled for the answer.,
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts |
How long will this continue? What will cause this trend to break/reverse? Isn't the trend for PM going up around spring time? That pattern happened the last 3+ years (it doesn't mean the price going even higher after spring time.... as in the past, after the spring rise, price drop in the summer...)
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@SA4H
well, trends usually run for years and years and years and they dont just reverse immediately. Just take a look at how gold and silver were in uptrends until it stopped.
The way commodities are valued is simple- supply and demand. Right now, there is no demand for PMs to support their current prices. Which brings us to your other question- what changes this trend and breaks it.
The only way we get out of this downtrend is by steady buying. Thats the only way. That clearly isn't happening and I think we see much lower prices before silver and gold run into an area of support that holds and allows prices to rise.
However, even if prices stop falling, dont expect them to return to their highs. There is a lot of overhead supply in terms of price that gold and silver will have to overcome and that will also take time.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
update-
last day of the year for the markets.... both silver and gold at the lower end of the range in just two days.
Watch and see if, how, or when we slice through. I suspect we continue this slow death in gold and silver.
Must be hard to be sitting on tons of gold and silver and just watching gains disappear.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
well... back to the high of the range lol we got our answer lol
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Pillar of the Community
2087 Posts |
Quote: I suspect we continue this slow death in gold and silver. I stopped buying gold in 2007 and sold half my holding in 2011( leaving what I had left as an effective freebie.) I am a risk intolerant investor and since 2011 have been amazed at the absolutely, to me, idiotic gold market. I think gold has a real foundation price of much closer to US$800.00 oz ( where the pre 2007 traditional supports were) So I with my risk intolerance, half expect to see Gold and, to a lesser extent silver, to plummet in price when those who have bought and held realize they may be losing their initial investment. IMHO gold has been a big boys market for the last few years. By big boys I mean futures traders who deal $100,000s or more at a time. Small time gold buyers are exposed to the influences those players have on the market
Edited by austrokiwi 12/31/2013 10:45 am
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Two important points I wanted to share with you all based on the price action today-
1- this price action is also telling that prices are NOT stable. Don't be fooled into a false sense of security.
2- Commodities are not something you invest it. They have too much volatility for someone putting away money on a regular basis especially if you don't know where to buy in or hedge the commodity.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
I see we have some fireworks in the futures market with gold and silver.
Should be interesting if this is going to be one heck of a short squeeze or the start of something where silver and gold try to hold their levels.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I'm enjoying the fruits of my bet today! I admit I was sweating it a bit; afraid I would lose on a technicality; but all is well! I want to talk about perception. In 2007 the perceived and actual value of Silver was between $5 and $10 an ounce. When Silver started to skyrocket the publics perception of silver changed from a stable asset to one that was "going to the moon forever". We all remember the hype. Basebal and I both remember saying it was a bubble; and all the subsequent negative comments. In the public's perception, from 2008 to 2011, Silver was "always going to rise in price'. From 2011 till the middle of 2013 the perception was that silver was stable and had found a bottom around the $32/oz level. Now the Public's perception is that Silver and Gold are assets whose value is going down. They expect the price to go down. Bullion buying is way down. My long term customers are waiting to see where it shakes out. Every time the price falls significantly I get some buyers for the first couple of days. The way I see it; "Mom and Pop" are not trying to get rich on Gold and Silver anymore. We still have the prepper market, but that is much smaller in terms of volume. Numismatic items are starting to lose the premiums that had built up in the last 4 years. Remember in 2009 you could still buy junk Morgans and Peace dollars for around $12 bucks each. My BU common date Morgan and Peace dollars were selling in the $24 to $32 range. At their peak, a year ago, those same coins were in the $44 to $55 range. Currently they are in the $36 to $48 range. I expect that by this time next year they will be in the $28 to $40 range. "Mom and Pop" expect price to go down, and so are returning to Copper and Nickels. I have seen a resurge of interest in Cents and Buffalo's. If Yup is right and the Big boys are winding down their involvement in PM's, then I expect that you will see all the middlemen that made huge profits on the way up to begin a propoganda blitz about physical buying in order to bolster their sales. And in many cases their Corporate lives. Many smaller "we buy Gold" places are going out of business. The others, that I know, are struggling; cutting back hours and trying to find other avenues to make a profit. They are trying to sell jewelry, or coins. In this scenario the "small fish" will hang on for awhile trying to keep prices up; until one day a fund pulls out in such a way that the price collapses dramatically. After all, as Yup points, who wants to invest in a dead asset? So; for fun, my prediction for Jan 1 2015, Silver at $12/oz and Gold at $650/oz. Makes me wonder if I did this last year?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
919 Posts |
Quote: So; for fun, my prediction for Jan 1 2015, Silver at $12/oz and Gold at $650/oz I hope you are correct. I will be a buyer of silver dollars at $28 for BU and gold coins at $650 an oz. I look forward to $20 gold coins at $700 and $10 gold coins at $400.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Should have an update ready Monday,again sorry for the delay.
I like one thing Jim says, and thats that the public is counting gold and silver to keep falling. Everyone and their brother is saying it... I have had family tell me, someone who makes his money by trading markets, that gold is going down and to sell.
That sets off alarm bells on my end, I expect some sort of rip roaring rally that catches everyone off guard then loses steam after its hurt enough people.
but anyways, more on that later.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,433 |
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