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Replies: 23 / Views: 3,348 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
Historically, it 15:1. But what has changed to get the ratio so out of whack? That, I'd love to know.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1450 Posts |
I think that 15:1 ratio we see thrown around so much has more to do with amounts mined rather than price. I doubt we will see the ratio go much below 35:1 anytime soon. I think the drop in the ratio will be a result of silver prices surging more than gold dropping. That is just my gut based on all I have read.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5870 Posts |
Yeah, when was there ever a 15:1 ratio? My math is not that great, but when I was growing up I seem to remember silver being around $4 and gold being around $300 for the longest time. Isn't that actually a 75:1 ratio?
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts |
Quote: Yeah, when was there ever a 15:1 ratio? My math is not that great, but when I was growing up I seem to remember silver being around $4 and gold being around $300 for the longest time. Isn't that actually a 75:1 ratio?
I can remember them days as well, I can also recall that people still had the old wireless with valves in them. We even had silver coinage in our pockets and thought nothing of it. Since then there has been an explosion of electronic devices solar power and many other industrial uses of silver. Silver is now not only a PM but is an essential metal in industry and as such the demand for golds little sister is growing all the time. Gold has some industrial use but not to the same extent that silver does and IMHO the gold silver ratio is reflecting this higher demand for silver industrially and will continue to do so until someone finds a substitute for it.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1723 Posts |
15 to 1 ratios were a long time ago. People are kinda foolish to think that those kind of ratios will ever return in my opinion. The way the world runs today vs then is so different. I can see a 30 to 1 ratio or even 25 but not 15. Though the 15 to 1 radio exists based on the amount of mine able silver there is in the ground so you cant argue the thought process or the want for those ratios to reappear. I think silver is definitely undervalued and has more upside for sure and because of that I'm a silver bug, but I did just pick up my first gold coin by trading in silver. If I were you, I would hold my gold and just accumulate more silver. Just my thoughts. Cheers. Let us know what you decided.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
Quote: It would be interesting to hear some discussion on what it would take to shift the G / S ratio in a meaningful way. What causes it to change? Why does it go up vs. down? Is this controlled primarily by supply? I just read an interesting article over on miningweekly.com by Henry Lazenby discussing the discovery of "mega" gold deposits in Mexico that very well may change the economics of modern gold production. Currently, the average cost world wide to produce one troy ounce of gold is $649.00 USD. However, if Mexico can exploit its new-found deposits (projected to come online in 2017), it's abundance of cheap yet highly skilled mining labor could bring the production cost per ounce of gold down to an amazing $325.00 USD! In some ways, it's reasonable to assume the lowest sustainable price for gold can be no lower than it's current production cost. Thus, high average gold production costs create a high "minimum" gold price. Of course, the opposite is true if costs come down. While Mexico faces considerable political risk and potentially some interference from the ongoing drug war, it's not unreasonable that Mexico may influence an era of more affordable wholesale gold in the near future. This may very well impact the gold/silver ratio, but it's anyone's guess how this will translate to the retail PM market. Thoughts?
Edited by coinwatch 05/13/2012 11:17 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
According to the ounces produced to date tracker on SGTreport, there is a 9.4 to 1 ratio of silver ounces produced to date to gold ounces. Add to this that there is WAY more gold above ground, about 7 billion ounces, and available for use than there is silver, about 1/2 billion ounces, and we have a scenario where a ratio of 10:1 is not at all unrealistic. Seen in this light, the silver price should be somewhere around 1/10th that of gold and not 1/50th or so. Given the current gold price of about $1580, that would give a silver price of $158. If the paper pushers can stop playing games long enough for REAL price discovery to develop in silver, we might see something VERY interesting... particularly to those of us who hold silver!  We'll know how badly the industrial users of silver really want the stuff when the demand just exceeds the supply and bidding for the stuff occurs like it does for oil... fast and furious! Quote: Yeah, when was there ever a 15:1 ratio? How about when a US Double Eagle coin was $20 and a US silver dollar was $1? The Double Eagle contained 0.9675 oz. of gold, so gold was valued at $20.67 dollars per oz. A silver dollar contained 0.7734 oz. of silver, so silver was valued at $1.29 per oz. The ratio then was 20.67/1.29 or 16:1. This is not 15:1 but it is close to that. Just sayin'... and yes, it has been a while but it did happen.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
We can thank Roosevelt and Nixon for that, as well as the FRB for printing and printing backed by nothing.
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote: It looks like the gold/silver ratio is 54.7/1. It may be time to let loose of a couple ounces of gold to beef up the silver hoard. What do you think based on what has happened the last week or so? swap gold ounces for platinum, put the difference into 90%.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1450 Posts |
That is excellent advice Fredd! Platinum is under priced so now is the time to grab some.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: We can thank Roosevelt and Nixon for that, as well as the FRB for printing and printing backed by nothing. I agree, Angel. The more I read and learn about the history of money, how money works, and its functions in economics the more convinced I become that money MUST be backed by something, even if it is just the productivity of the people in the state that issues it. Problem is, no one can ever resist the urge to print more money when they should be cutting back. Because of this, only gold and silver have ever been successful at backing a currency for an extended period of time. The natural rarity of these elements acts as a barrier to the currency over-printing by governments that always leads to financial disaster. They simply cannot print more double eagles or silver dollars if they do not have the physical gold or silver to do so, no matter how much they might want to do that. Some will say that gold and silver are not suitable for use as money because they limit the growth of an economy. My answer to that is that they should be careful not to confuse growth with inflation.
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote: money MUST be backed by something, even if it is just the productivity of the people in the state that issues it. Problem is, no one can ever resist the urge to print more money when they should be cutting back. It's like musical chairs. Fun and games for quite awhile with 50 players and 49 chairs, even for the few that slowly get bumped (little or no inflation). Less fun when the game goes faster (moderate inflation). No fun at all when there are 25 chairs for 50 players (hyper inflation).
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
Ed, have you read any of Ron Paul's books on the FRB and sound money? He dedicated his life to trying to restore money soundness after Nixon withdrew our last ties to money backed by gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: No fun at all when there are 25 chairs for 50 players (hyper inflation). Lol, Fredd! How about the ultimate in hyperinflation... 50 people, 1 chair, and 1 BIG knife.  Quote: Ed, have you read any of Ron Paul's books on the FRB and sound money? He dedicated his life to trying to restore money soundness after Nixon withdrew our last ties to money backed by gold. No, I haven't read any of Paul's books but have read and listened to a number of his speeches and comments in congress. I agree with Ron Paul much of the time. As to Nixon... he made plenty of mistakes but he was in a very tough spot re gold. At that time, only the US dollar was pegged to gold. Other countries sometimes pegged their currency to the US dollar, in effect being pegged to gold, once removed. Still, it is an impossible situation to have your currency pegged to gold while one or more of your major trading partners is / are not pegged to gold. They can demand your gold but you can't demand theirs. If this is allowed to continue, pretty soon, they have all of your gold (which is hard to replace) and you have all of their paper (which is easily printed). Hmmm... not good and even Nixon realized that. I've read a lot of criticism of Nixon for this but no valid alternatives proposed. I suppose that we could have gone to an international dollar and a domestic dollar, with the i-dollar not backed by gold but the d-dollar backed by gold. To work, it would not be possible to convert one to the other. Didn't South Africa have a dual currency like this at some point? If so, do they still have it? I was a LOT less happy with Nixon's wage and price control experiment. Even though I was just a young man at the time, I thought that this was really dumb. It, of course, flopped Big-Time. 
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