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Replies: 28 / Views: 1,316 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2724 Posts |
will coins continue to appreciate in value?
probably. especially if we go cashless, or coinless. mho.
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Moderator
 Australia
17006 Posts |
A large driver of "where coin prices will go in the future" depends to a large part on what happens with coins themselves - will they remain a visible, viable part of the economy and in people's daily experiences, or will they become a curious anachronism like swords and oil lamps, relics of a bygone era with little to no practical function in modern society?
Coin collecting is popular because it's super-easy to "get started": all you need to do is sort through your change. That's how many of the "old guys" got their start as kids back in the previous century, and will continue to be the main "recruiting ground" for future coin collectors. A proportion of those fishing-coins-from-change collectors will go on to become those "spend big bucks on rare coins" collectors. But if coins essentially disappear from public view (if everyone goes cashless or if the dollar becomes so worthless that the only "cash" anyone normally uses is notes), that means fewer new collectors to replace those old ones. And that will inevitably lead to lower demand, and lower prices.
I've often said that one of the reasons I like collecting coins is that coins are a tangible continuum of history - they are one of the few ancient inventions that are still in use today. Suppose you were to travel back in time, kidnap a random Roman citizen, and dump them on a 21st century street. They'd be totally confused by everything they saw around them - the culture, the language, the fashion, the technology - but show them a coin, and they'd not only know exactly what it was, but roughly how to use it.
Sadly, unless something drastic happens with our modern culture, I think the 21st century is going to be the last where that first sentence in the above paragraph is going to be true. And "people who become interested in curious anachronisms" are always going to be smaller in number than "people who are interested in everyday objects".
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6905 Posts |
AU, that is quite a wealth of information on airborne disease countermeasures! I am of the opinion that if I am in a crowd so densely packed with air so contaminated, that I am probably just in the wrong place and a mask won't do much good. I extremely dislike planes right now for the same reason. Half the people I know who fly on vacation get sick during or afterwards. No thanks!
I do go to our small local coin show occasionally, but the prices were high, and it is simply not as convenient for examining coins, doing research, taking my time. I did enjoy the bargain bin diving though. =)
Sap, I think a reasonably intelligent Roman citizen would recognize a lot of stuff—buildings with doors and windows, roads, wheeled conveyances with a mysterious power source, clothing, jewelry, signage, restaurants, and so forth. The specifics would completely astound them, of course.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
794 Posts |
I'm 75 and have collected coins since I was 7. In that entire time I have read countless letters to the editor about the need to get young people intrrested in the hobby, and here we are, still chugging along. By the way Brandmeister, thanks for the anecdotal evidence about flying. Exactly one month from today I'll be on a 10 1/2 hour flight to Paris. Good luck to me I guess. Au revoir.
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Moderator
 United States
196100 Posts |
An interesting question and thoughtful discussion here. I try to avoid worrying about future value. I treat my coins as a commodity and not an investment. However, I still ponder their value from time to time.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
794 Posts |
Sorry, but at my grade level when I'm spending well into 4 figures for a commodity.....it's an investment.
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Moderator
 United States
196100 Posts |
You can always join me in the bargain basement! I have yet to crack the $500 barrier for a single coin. 
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New Member
 United States
24 Posts |
Brandmeister: You've been listening too much to the anti-mask brigade. My tests using the sprays of the sweet and the bitter solutions show me that masks really do work. Even a lousy mask worn properly provides substantial protection. Even the "lower tier" N95 masks provide substantially more protection than a lousy uncertified mask. Remember that the amount of viral load is the biggest factor behind your risk of infection and the potential severity of infection. A tiny viral load is MUCH less risky than a large viral load.
If I'm not wearing a mask at all, I cough from breathing the spray. The bitter spray is particularly nasty. With a lousy uncertified mask on (such as a cheap dust mask with one little head strap), I can distinctly taste both solutions, especially the bitter one. With a "lower tier" N95 mask on, I can faintly taste the sweet spray and more distinctly taste the bitter spray. With a "middle tier" N95 mask on, I cannot taste the sweet spray at all but can faintly taste the bitter spray. With an "upper tier" N95 mask on (like the 3M Aura), I cannot taste the sweet spray or the bitter spray.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
8056 Posts |
Getting back to the original question, and Sap's hypothesis, I agree it will be interesting to see how strongly the health of the hobby is tied to coins continuing to be a medium of exchange. I won't be around to see, but it's hard to shoot holes in that logic.
Except ...
I see an awful lot of "numismatic" products that never intended to circulate being gobbled up by some kind of collector. I have no idea if those collectors started by going through pocket change, or if that was too dull, and they just jumped straight to buying the one ounce chunk of silver with half the rainbow applied on its surface, and maybe even a chip of diamond or palladium. Of course, they are unlikely to provide the demand that will continue to drive up the price of, say, a nice semi-key Morgan. Or will they?
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Moderator
 United States
196100 Posts |
Quote: I see an awful lot of "numismatic" products that never intended to circulate being gobbled up by some kind of collector. The power of marketing/advertising?  Quote: Of course, they are unlikely to provide the demand that will continue to drive up the price of, say, a nice semi-key Morgan. Or will they? 
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Valued Member
United States
96 Posts |
Saps post is exactly correct. Coin collecting will eventually decline in consort with the decreased cultural relevance of coins themselves as ubiquitous, daily objects .
I too collect for the same reasons and coins offer some peculiarly satisfying elements as far as a medium to commune with history, but they're basically all but dead as 'money' and those who collect them are definitely getting older. This is exclusive of bullion. Different thing, and a very good gateway to numismatics, but the post COVID collectibles boom does not a sustainable trend make. I remember when LCSs were everywhere. Now, they're nowhere and those that exist are 90% bullion interest.
Sports cards, once a dead hobby since risen from the ashes and now white hot once again, is driven by sports. Go to a sports cards convention, tons and tons of kids, Very few in coins.
If I'm not mistaken, New York City has one remaining full time dedicated 'stamp shop'. One. In NYC. Once, vintage tools were hotly collected. Now, cannot be given away. Once, a 1929 Ford Model A was the desirable 'classic car'. Now, they sell for a tiny fraction of what they once did, inflation adjusted, now that the people who wanted them are mostly all dead.
It will eventually come for Numismatics. Demographics are destiny.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6905 Posts |
Quote: I remember when LCSs were everywhere. Now, they're nowhere and those that exist are 90% bullion interest. I remember when the publicly available Internet didn't exist. Now, there are dozens of huge coin shops online and possibly hundreds of smaller ones.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
8056 Posts |
I think it can be argued that internet sales are a just a "new" channel to market for all kinds of goods including coins, that have changed the market dynamics in certan ways for now (positively as far as I'm concerned, by effectively increasing supply. The number of "online stores" is effectively well into the thousands, since every ebay coin seller is effectively its own "store" in the sense you can just click on "see seller's other items"). What the hobby will look like in, say, 20 years is a different issue. I've been trying to come up with an analogy a bit more recent than Sap's oil lamps, but without success. I think both stamps and books are further along in the "cultural transformation" trajectory than coins, so we will probably be able to learn from those.
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Valued Member
United States
96 Posts |
Personally speaking I don't care if numismatics grows or not. Coins aren't an 'investment' for me (despite recent gains they perform quite terribly over time TBH), they're a hobby and I couldn't care less how 'popular' my personal hobbies are with the general public.
If anything, I'd personally be much happier if all the competition who showed up after COVID went back to collecting Pokemon cards, or whatever, and all the values went straight back down.
If you collect something for the enjoyment of it and not for dreams of financial gain, popularity decline is quite the good thing. Example, all those brass and rosewood antique hand tools that sold for a fortune 25-30+ years ago are now worth a pittance. The antique tool collection in the man cave came at pennies on the dollar over what it would've cost to assemble in the 1980's or 90s. Same with antique furniture, now a fraction of a fraction of its cost at the peak (truly, stuff that sold for thousands in the 1980s- in 1980s dollars- now sits gathering dust for $150 at an antique store). If you appreciate good furniture, how is this a 'bad' thing?
If that comes for coins in my lifetime, it's a best case scenario for my own interests. As long as there are enough collectors to fill a few shows a year and keep the local coin club going, the 'investment' aspect doesn't matter to me, at all and I'd be totally cool if everyone who showed up to coins after COVID went away.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
8056 Posts |
Quote: Personally speaking I don't care if numismatics grows or not. Coins aren't an 'investment' for me (despite recent gains they perform quite terribly over time TBH), they're a hobby and I couldn't care less how 'popular' my personal hobbies are with the general public. I think a lot of CCF members are of the same mind, me included, but the question is about value of coins, so answering that question requires a broader view. Quote: Same with antique furniture, now a fraction of a fraction of its cost at the peak (truly, stuff that sold for thousands in the 1980s- in 1980s dollars- now sits gathering dust for $150 at an antique store). If you appreciate good furniture, how is this a 'bad' thing? To me, that's an interesting example of changing tastes. Everyone needs furniture. And, checking against Sap's construct, it's not left the culture. But I think younger generations than mine have no interest in furniture that has to be protected because it's old and valuable. At least that's the case in my family. Also true for china and crystal. I get the impression nobody has any use for it these days, even though we all still need dishes from which to eat (proper grammar ... another dinosaur  )
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Replies: 28 / Views: 1,316 |
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