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Bubble?

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First Page Previous Page  Showing last 15 replies.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/08/2011  7:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
I've tried to get people on board with metals but only one is serious enough to buy any. - Libertad


Well, just stop, will ya? We don't need the competition from a lot of new bidders.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1064 Posts
 Posted 04/08/2011  8:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JackB to your friends list
I fear we're in the oil bubble!
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/09/2011  10:43 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
U.S. house prices are dirt cheap from an Australian viewpoint.


An amazing comment, especially about California house prices. If they'd check out Ohio, they could buy an entire block for the price of a typical CA home.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 04/09/2011  10:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list
I couldn't sell my friends an ounce even if I forced them to. Now it's getting too expensive for them to get into, and one day they won't have any when it dawns on the world that they and their families have been tricked for generations. I've learned never to believe any story anyone says because frankly they've been lied to or they beef up their story to make it sound interesting. [/rant] I've run out of ways to tell people now I have to sit back as usual and say "I told you so".

Housing: I don't think the market will recover soon with all of the new condominiums going up in the place of schools.
Oil: In a bubble, but just wait for it to hit $200-300 a barrel. Then we're in trouble. Imagine the cost of food after that one, it'll be tragic.
Edited by Libertad
04/09/2011 10:58 am
Valued Member
United States
425 Posts
 Posted 04/09/2011  11:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add odentheviking to your friends list
OK, now I am really lost!!
I posted a thread,("What would you do-2?"), asking that if you had $10,000 cash just sitting in the safe - should you buy PM's? The way I read it the over welming view was "NO!". "The time to buy PM's has past!"

But this thread seems to say if you are not buying PM's right now you are clearly a fool!

A local coin show opened about an hour ago. I decided not to go based on what was relayed toi me here......should I be running out the door NOW w/cash in hand?
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/13/2011  7:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
...should I be running out the door NOW w/cash in hand?

There's no real answer to that question that anyone can give you, Oden. Everything depends on your attitude, needs, resources, and desires.

As for myself... I will continue to buy silver in small amount on a regular basis and the price be darned. I'm in it for the long haul, although others might not be and that's OK too. My goal is to collect about 1,000 oz. of silver and maybe 25-30 oz. of gold. I haven't even started on the gold yet and mostly because of its price. But then, I thought that at $500/oz. and $1000/oz. as well, so timing the gold market is no easier than timing any other market. $1450/oz. gold looks expensive today because we have seen it much cheaper in the not too distant past. If gold were to double from here, today's prices would then look cheap to us.

I will use the gold and silver that I collect as a financial insurance program that can back up my paper investments in stocks, bonds, REITs, ETFs, mutual funds, etc. If everything were to come a cropper, my gold and silver hoard could very well make the difference between pulling me and my family through it or not. In the meantime, it is a fun and fascinating hobby.
Valued Member
United States
425 Posts
 Posted 04/13/2011  9:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add odentheviking to your friends list
Hello Ed-B, I got to tell you.....I am more confused now than before!
I think first you must be clear if you are buying PMs for investment or just for fun. If someone has picked up "Gold-Fever" they will use any excuse to buy more. I have been told by so many differant folks/investers that you should keep about 10% of your total investments in PMs. If you were to reach your investing goal today, that would mean you have about $85,000.00 in PMs. That should also mean you have about $850,000.00 in total assets! Or as Jack Sparrow says: "It's a fine goal!"

If gold/silver keep doubling, we may very well see the end of our financial system, not to mention the end of the USA as we know it! I would really like to hear what you mean by, "If everything were to come a cropper,". If this is what I think you mean....... a gun and a truck full of canned food, full gas cans, and bottled water is gonna take you alot farther! Oh sure a couple of gold coins will get you through a few check points/border guards but a pile of silver/gold will mostlikely just get you killed.

There is more Gold/Silver in private hands now then in any other time in history. And because of the internet, the whole world knows what it is worth at a glance. If prices fall, I mean really fall, there will be a panic to sell and what will you be able to buy with it? How about a good horse for every member of your family, and a pack mule to carry all your camping gear and food, a couple good rifles for protection/hunting, maybe a plot of land w/a cabin you can heat all winter, or maybe you head South?

I guess it all depends on what you mean by; "come a cropper"?
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/13/2011  11:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
A local coin show opened about an hour ago. I decided not to go based on what was relayed toi me here......should I be running out the door NOW w/cash in hand?


Even in 1980, we didn't see the sheer volume of people buying gold, silver, PM in general, coins, etc.

One difference you MUST remember, is the difference between trading and holding.

Say you buy $10,000 in silver tomorrow. The only way you can double your money in a year is for the price to double. Possible, but certainly not a sure thing.

Instead, if you buy $10,000 in silver, and turn it at a 2% profit in a week, and repeat that weekly, in a year, you'll have double your money.

And here's the beauty of it: You double your money whether silver doubles, stays the same, or even goes down!

This explains why both answers are correct. It may be too late to ride up PMs, but you can always trade a series of profits.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/14/2011  12:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
Oh sure a couple of gold coins will get you through a few check points/border guards but a pile of silver/gold will mostlikely just get you killed.


In WWII, pilots were given a few gold coins to use as bribes in case they went down behind enemy lines.

I think the difference is that back then there was honor among gentlemen. If someone robbed you, he'd take a check, knowing you wouldn't stop payment on it.

Today, if someone offered a bribe, I suspect the bribe would be taken, then he'd be shot and take the rest of his gold.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/14/2011  01:13 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
I guess it all depends on what you mean by; "come a cropper"?


No matter the possible future, there's always some on the lunatic fringe with ideas that are either impractical or just foolish.

When the world was preparing for y2k, gun magazines had covers reminding people it wasn't too late to load up on guns and ammo, to protect yourself against maniacal neighbors who were starving because their food stamp cards wouldn't work, or stores couldn't get food to sell, or whatever.

Sounds plausible until you think a little. What happens when we get a blizzard? Do people rush out to kill their neighbors for food because they can't get to the store? No, you dig yourself out, then call on your friends and neighbors to see if they're OK.

Besides, do you really want to live in a society where the next knock on the door may be someone wanting to kill you to survive? Short of being some sort of drug lord with dozens of trusted minions, you wouldn't last long, anyway, gun or no gun.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2011  02:13 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Hello Ed-B, I got to tell you.....I am more confused now than before!


Hello, Oden. Well, so much for my attempt at enlightened conversation.


Quote:
If you were to reach your investing goal today, that would mean you have about $85,000.00 in PMs. That should also mean you have about $850,000.00 in total assets! Or as Jack Sparrow says: "It's a fine goal!"


I haven't checked the complete net worth of our investing accounts lately. If I did it would likely be in the area of $1.4M or so. Having even 5% of that in PMs would amount to about $70k. That would be a fair amount, which is why some of that would have to be in gold. If not, then the volume would be difficult to store securely.


Quote:
I guess it all depends on what you mean by; "come a cropper"?


Typically, that is a generic, if somewhat archaic, description of a SHTF situation. It's also flexible in that the specific situation is not yet known but it is thought to be pretty bad compared to the relative calm at the moment.
Valued Member
United States
53 Posts
Valued Member
United States
53 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2011  06:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Jamessmith77 to your friends list
Today the US Mint will open orders for 2011 American Eagle Gold Proofs. I am in. I am also adjusting my investment portfolio to contain 40% in Gold. But, thats just me.
New Member
United States
11 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2011  2:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkoenig to your friends list
May be a bubble, I'm now switching to investing in Foreign currencies, Canadian dollar, swiss frank, etc. You can do this with your local bank. The best thing about this is that you don't have to sell money...it's already money. I have enough metals, and while it may be forming a bubble, think we are just at the very beginning. I'm no financial analyst, so who knows. I can only speculate that until the United States gets it's act together in regards to debt and monetary policies we are just going to see more people fleeing to metals.

If we were to reign in debt and raise bond rates then we could see a major pull back, but what are the chances of that actually happening. I hope for my children's sake we do recover, but am a bit pessimistic currently.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2011  9:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
If we were to reign in debt and raise bond rates then we could see a major pull back, but what are the chances of that actually happening. I hope for my children's sake we do recover, but am a bit pessimistic currently. - mkoenig

I agree with this reasoning. It is sound, IMHO. When I look at all of the things that can support the price of PMs vs. the things that could cause the PMs to drop in price, the side of the ledger that supports higher silver and gold prices is quite a bit longer than the side that supports a PM price pull-back. US government financial sanity is unlikely to return until at least 2013, at the earliest and perhaps not even then. The Europeans are no better. Only the Asians seem to have their financial act together, which is why I invest some of my money there. I also like Latin America for their young but dynamic and growing economies. If they can avoid the trap of spending more than they have and living on credit, they should do well.

Bernanke desperately needs to raise US short term interest rates but seems to have no interest in doing so. This is too bad because his cheap money policy has hurt savers and retirees greatly and is now creating substantial inflation that will hurt everyone in the US and some around the world. I am deeply disturbed by the Fed's track record on spotting bubbles in the economy. That record is abysmal. We currently have a government bubble going and it is doing great damage to the US and world financial systems. When it pops, and it will as all bubbles do, there will be some very serious repercussions. Bernanke seems blissfully unaware of all this, though, and perhaps that is scarier than the situation itself.
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