Silver Crash

mmerlinn,

I've read quite a few of your post on various thread and I can see/understand your view. Here are some of my thought: The crash of paper PM (silver in particular) will probably come (according to my understanding of your post), which would bring down the SPOT PRICE. However, in reality, at such crash where/how can people like us acquire the physical silver. My personal experience reflected this: At the crash of 2008 when silver falling from around $20/oz to sub $10/oz, all selling activities were virtually HALTED (Southern California & even online) . Not until silver climb up to about $12, did I see some selling.... but the premium was high (even for 90% junk silver).

Even yesterday, I've checked local craigslist and some online dealers.... there are not much selling, the supplies of low premium silvers are running low (even APMEX is running out of stock on some of the product that cost $0.50 plus SPOT per OZ).

What I am trying to share is even if the crash is coming, the challenge of acquiring physical silver (PM in general) is not simple and also costly (dealer tend to increase the premium as spot price falling - it make sense business wise).

Utilize the crash to play paper PM is great but unless we have a long (at least a few months) price slump, which seemed unlikely, not many physical PM buyers can take advantage of the price drop. There are simply no supplies available at the dip.

Anyways, I hope your prediction of the crash come in late October will be corrected. We have to wait and see.

Wow Danlos, you are like Nostradamus needless to say....

Can you predict whether or not a coin will land on heads or tails as well?

I am just razzing you, as I posted a thread giving Merlin credit for the same prediction, lol....

Now then, did you predict it would gain almost 8 bucks back to almost 33 by today, which tells me this aint 1980, and people are buying left an right, instead of being lead by fear and selling at the first signs of a bad swing....

It may pull back some more when it gets back up to the areas where the wise DO NOT like to buy up at 40 plus and 1700 plus around Christmas time, when everyone is busy buying little Timmy the new G.I.Joe with the kung fu grip, to steal a phrase from Eddy Murphy in trading places, lol. But as we all know if the early part of this year is an indication, it is gonna start a nice climb in January, and probably will not pull back till early summer.....

And if Stansberry's prediction and timeline turns out to be close to right closing in on late 2011, maybe it will not go back down at all in the summer....

Maybe you should have asked him what a "Reverse" was.

Fair enough but with so many people talking about it they had to get it right one time.

So it is 50/50 give me your price at the end of November. Close to $20 or close to $40?

I still do not see a crash it is still over the price point it was at a year ago. I can still hear people telling me wow it is above $24 I have never seen that.

As a very long time buyer I have hardly noticed the small drop in price, though I know there was a large crowd to jump on the band wagon this past year so they may see things differently. Now it gets back to the $8 range I may not be so pleasant with my views.

The recent silver "crash" was caused by the same circumstances as the price drop in the fall of 2008. Not so much history repeating itself as rhyming.

When silver bottomed out at $8.83/oz. in 2008, it was due to Wall Street selling off paper gold and silver futures to meet margin calls.
This month's run down to $30? Same thing.

Also the same story as fall 2008 is a big demand for physical silver concurrent with the paper selloff. When spot bottomed out in 2008, you still couldn't buy a bullion ASE in Denver for less than $17.

Agreed, Fredd. IMO, there has to be a general trend of falling prices in many items for it to qualify as "deflation". If we look at the nitty gritty of even a healthy economy, we can almost always find a few items that are falling in price as the majority hold steady or move a little higher.

The one thing that Bernanke and other banksters will not tell you is that deflation is marvelous for anyone who has MONEY. I mean, just think about it. All of a sudden, your money buys a lot more goods and services than it did before. Problem? No, not really. True, your hard assets are also likely to be worth less than before but if you aren't selling them, no problem. Me thinks that deflation IS a big prob for the banks and that is why he is so fiercely against it.

As far as the citizens go, INflation is a MUCH bigger problem. Suddenly, your money buys a lot less than it did before and any money you've saved is worth less as well. This is how your standard of living is eroded, not by deflation.

Doesn't that assume that your income is also inflating? If it isn't, then lots of inflation is a financial killer.

I'm sure that we both well remember the inflation of the Carter era and what it did to people living on fixed incomes. It definitely was not pretty.