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is there any Krause catalog from 1501-1600? Any plans for one?
No, and probably, once they do enough research. The 1600's edition is full of errors and omissions, so I'd rather they took their time to get all the research right the first time.
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I'm guessing not since I looked into my 17th century Krause and found that many of the places (like Poland) start with KM1, what would the 16th century become then, KMnegatives?
Krause would do what they've done before, and renumber the entire series for that country. Annoying, yes, but it's the only way around the problem.
Back onto the subject at hand. I never answered the OP question about
my oldest AD/numeral dated coin. It's a Hungarian denar of Wladislas II, dated 1508.
As for the theoretical, I looked up Doty's "Encyclopedic Dictionary of Numismatics" under "dating systems", where it confirms the oldest AD date is 1234, written in Roman numerals on coins from Roskilde, Denmark.
The oldest use of "modern" numerals to indicate the date is given to be a coin of the Swiss canton of St Gall, in 1424.
Example on CoinArchives. You can see the date figures in the top left of the obverse, at around the 10 o'clock position. If you're having trouble spotting it, I've highlighted it here:

The "4"s are somewhat archaically-shaped, and very similar to an upside-down "Indian 4", but it's still recognisable as "1424".
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis