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Will The Mint Eventually Stop Producing NCLT?

 
 
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Pillar of the Community

Canada
652 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  11:34 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add JGG to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
Will the RCM eventually kill the NCLT market? A few points ...

1. Most collectors are 60+, very little young collector interest.
2. Most governments are edging towards a cashless society.
3. Most governments have abandoned a backed-currency.
4. Demand for NCLT is extremely low
5. They are a horribly performing asset.
6. The RCM method of distribution is antiquated.
7. Most NCLT does not commemorate anything.
8. They are sold at too high of a premium to BV.
9. Mintages are often too high
10. People are highly indebted, and likely do not have enough disposable income to purchase mass-marketed collectibles.

I'd like to start this discussion and hear your thoughts. I'm mean, is it feasible that RCM cuts the NCLT program? Are we eventually going down that route?
Pillar of the Community
Canada
4285 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  12:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add john100 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The RCM will only stop when the public and dealers stop buying and it will revert back to like what the US mint is doing very low mintage compared to demand as they sell out most issues, but not 15 a month.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
652 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  12:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JGG to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Mint revenues on numismatic items dropped by $55.4 million dollars y/y according to their annual report.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1664 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  1:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dbrablec to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
too many acronim initials...
RCM I got...

NCLT..I didnt...


i suppose I should know more initials - than I do..but it takes away some of the interest value - when I need to look up information to fill in the blanks...

im sure it is "my bad" ....but not everyone know all the acronim's...

Pillar of the Community
Canada
4285 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  1:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add john100 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Non circulation legal tender coins NCLT
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1194 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  1:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dcadon to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Non-Circulating Legal Tender (the legal tender - seems to be optional)
Pillar of the Community
Canada
2442 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  2:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add oriole to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
They are technically coins since they are issued under government authority and have a denomination. This makes the collector interested. If this were not true, they would sell for quite a bit less.
Pillar of the Community
Learn More...
United States
2291 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  9:18 pm  Show Profile   Check canadian_coins's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
1. Most collectors are 60+, very little young collector interest.
- I'm definitely getting close to that 60 number
- My kids ~15-17 have no use / interest in coins
- Nor any collectibles for that matter

2. Most governments are edging towards a cashless society.
- That's a fact

3. Most governments have abandoned a backed-currency.
- That's a fact
- Coins are also made with cheap materials

4. Demand for NCLT is extremely low
- It's probably still there, but not enough to swallow all the releases

5. They are a horribly performing asset.
- Not quite as bad as jewelry

6. The RCM method of distribution is antiquated.
- Abolish the reps.

7. Most NCLT does not commemorate anything.
- Or commemorate the same thing over and over again
- Like the loonie for instance, flying, dancing, diving
- 40th, 65th 90th... should wait until 50, 75 and 100

8. They are sold at too high of a premium to BV.
- agree 100%
- gimmicky (paint, crystals, to jack up the price)

9. Mintages are often too high
- A difficult issue to manage. I understand the RMC wanting to capitalize on strong demand.

10. People are highly indebted, and likely do not have enough disposable income to purchase mass-marketed collectibles.
- Not sure if this is true. I think the dynamic has changed due to your above arguments more so than disposable income. It may depend on age groups but I personally have more disposable income now than I had 10-15 years ago when I was paying a mortgage.
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Pillar of the Community
Learn More...
Canada
7478 Posts
 Posted 05/13/2019  9:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DBM to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Will The Mint Eventually Stop Producing NCLT?

All things must pass.
"Dipping" is not considered cleaning...
-from PCGS website
Pillar of the Community
Canada
2591 Posts
 Posted 05/14/2019  5:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MoneyPenney to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
1. Most collectors are 60+, very little young collector interest.


This would apply to all coin collectors, not just NCLT.

Go to coin shows, most of the dealers are in their 60's and 70's with customers just as old. You rarely see anyone under 40 there.

Many coins collectors started collecting back in the 1950's, 1960's and 1970's. That was decades away from the digital age. Back then, with little distractions, coin and stamp collecting was very big. Lots of kids were into coin and stamp collecting

Fast forward to today. Young people now literally have the world at their finger tips with the internet, smartphones, and social media. Watch a video, listen to music, play games, connect with friends, etc. Coin collecting is the farthest thing from their minds.

Pillar of the Community
Canada
2591 Posts
 Posted 05/14/2019  5:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MoneyPenney to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
9. Mintages are often too high


Actually, the RCM has lowered mintages quite a bit compared to 5 or 6 years ago.
1 oz silver coins were regularly in the 10,000 to 15,00 range, now they are often in the 4000 to 5000 range.

2 oz and 5 oz coins also have lower mintages. Consequently we are seeing more sellouts.
Valued Member
Canada
69 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2019  12:19 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CurrencyLooker to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Most collectors are 60+, very little young collector interest.


As a 19 year old coin collector I have to say I agree. When I call shops asking if I can purchase their junk silver and I arrive to pick it up they are surprised to see me since most of their customers are 40 and above.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
606 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2019  12:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Electrum to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yet coin collecting is still the most popular hobby is it not?
Are there to be less hobbyists in general?
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
15254 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2019  01:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
All of the above comments seem to have at east a slight tinge of cynicism. Perhaps not too surprising.

RCM with, and to a slightly lesser extent, most other mints around the World, have just about killed the goose that laid the 'golden egg'.

I can remember in the late 1960's there was much enthusiasm about the idea of an occasional issue of NCLT.

NCLT will continue to be produced, as long as there is a profit to be made, for whatever combination of reasons.

I do have a small amount of NCLT in my collection, but all purchased at cherrypick prices in the numismatic aftermarket.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
11862 Posts
 Posted 05/16/2019  6:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
1. Most collectors are 60+, very little young collector interest.


Which was true a 100 years ago as well, that's nothing new.



Quote:
3. Most governments have abandoned a backed-currency.


Currency is backed by the strength of the government


Quote:
I'm mean, is it feasible that RCM cuts the NCLT program?


Scale back possibly, get rid of it entirely no. As long as they make money that is all they care about for it and there will always be some market for it.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
548 Posts
 Posted 05/17/2019  07:51 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Alex A to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
As a 19 year old coin collector I have to say I agree. When I call shops asking if I can purchase their junk silver and I arrive to pick it up they are surprised to see me since most of their customers are 40 and above.


@CurrencyLooker - Kudos for collecting! Enjoy!

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