Doomsday for NCLT not happening.
Depends on your definition of Doomsday. I think that a negative ROI for more than 85% of the items sold is pretty doomsday like. In comparison with other collectibles, NCLT distinguishes itself in a high upfront cost with little or no resale market and a significant drop in cost. Look at the painted plates or silver teaspoons of the '70s and '80. It goes back to the old adage... Anything marketed as collectible usually is not a rare or collectible item. Original series of Star Wars figurines (not my cup of tea) have appreciated fantastically... because they were sold as toys, not collectibles. Today, you can buy special package Star Wars figurines from the last movie that fare as well as modern NCLT.
If this move by the RCM
is intended to extend the MC qualification period to confirm the viability of the NCLT market rather than a simple realignment of the calendar then I think that the RCM
will inevitably retrench to their staples of SD, Proof Set, Unc/PL Set/Spec Set and a few annual gold issues.
This is not a bad thing. As a tax payer, I want the RCM
to be financially solvent; as a collector, I want items I collect to maintain a value close to issue price. I also want NCLT to remain... not at the crazy levels of 2012-2015 but at a level where the market self manages and there is a return to the anticipation for the monthly announcement rather than what I see these days which is a rush to dump on the mediocrity of the offering.