Proof Set Values

The Red Book is what the suggestion retail price or FMV is. The blue book is what a dealer would offer you if not less. The difference in price is so a dealer can make a profit. Both books are "references" and the values do flux. Best example is silver & gold coins. Dealer will offer 1 or 2 points or more below spot. However, they will turn around and only sell the coins/bullion/etc for 1 or 2 points over spot. Watching auctions you will see bullion bars, junk silver, etc. going for 2 to 3x spot price.

Most dealers / flea market sellers / etc will pull out a Red Book to show you their price is fair.

Too murky the waters up a little more. Dealers use what is called grey sheets to get the up-to-date "buy" price on coins. These prices reflect dealer to dealer sales and such. You must get a subscription to get the grey sheets.

But proof set prices DO go down. Why? Because there are usually a lot more proof sets made that the collector base will support pricewise. Typically the value of a proof set will run through a certain cycle, issue price, a premium as soon as they become available because some people don't want to wait for their sets, or don't buy from the mint etc. Often anoter price jump when the mint cuts off orders. Then over time usuall a five to ten year period the price of the set will drift back down to issue price or even less as more and more of them come onto the market and there are more sets than there are collectors seeking them.

Sometimes there is something unusual about a set and that will cause its value to stay high for a longer period. A good example of this in the 1979 set. When the type I and II mintmarks were discovered the value of BOTH types of sets tok an upward jump. The type II being much scarcer held onto its value, but the Type I, althogh its value went back down, took much longer than normal to fall back down to issue price. Something like 13 years. Then once it reached issue price it quickly slipped into the normal few dollars under issue level. I don't try to judge whether of not a proof set, commem, or other "special" coin will be something that will hold its value until it as been out at least ten years. During that first ten years there tends to be too much speculation and uncertainty and most everyone who buys and holds during that period loses money.

True every now and then there is a winner, but usually the losers will, or almost will, offset the winners. (Now if you buy and sell and are able to lock in those profits that is a different matter.)