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Replies: 27 / Views: 6,003 |
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Valued Member
United States
164 Posts |
(I hope this type of thread has not been made already, I did a quick search and didn't find anything related) This is a theory that I've been hanging onto (And somewhat hoping for) for a long time, And I wanted to hear it from a professional (You  ) if there was any truth to the theories surrounding the copper cent. In short, Because the mint is (Most likely) either going to change the metal used in the making of a cent, Or stop production of it all together, It makes me wonder if the old Copper cents will suddenly see a spike in value. There's also another theory that once the change is made, The government will melt down mostly all of the publicly circulated Copper cents, Not only (Possibly) making the old copper cents rise in value, But making even the most minor error on a copper cent receive a boost in it's premium. All of these rumors have got me excited, And make me wonder whether hoarding rolls of old copper cents would be worth it, Half for the copper content, And half for it's possible numismatic value. But is it all just rumors and speculation? Even if the government starts melting down Copper cents, Will it cause a rise in the value of copper cents? And even if it does, How many years potentially will it take until the rise in value of the copper cent becomes noticeable? And would the rise in the value of copper also have a domino effect on Wheat and Indian Head cents values? I'd like to hear your opinions on this.  Edited by JOE 09/22/2008 8:24 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2661 Posts |
Joe you have my attention. I have a 5 gallon jar about 2/3 full of pennies now. If the big copper melt does come I'll be pulling out all of my 1959-1982 coins an putting them into tubes for a later date.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
936 Posts |
I deal with copper pricing all the time (electrical contractor) and feel copper will continue to rise over the years. Take a look at any of the precious metal charts, they have increased over time. I agree that if the government raises the melting ban people will melt more than what they already are, which in turn should increase the value of some cents. As more third world countries continue to upgrade or improve their infrastructures, which require copper, the demand for copper will increase along with the price. Some people might argue that many systems are going wireless and the demand for copper will decline over time, I happen to disagree but to each their own!
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Valued Member
United States
296 Posts |
I hoard copper pennies. I have a little over $700 face. Copper pennies are already selling for a premium as bullion. Do a search on ebay and you will see $50 and bigger lots readily selling for 1.3 to 1.5 face value. Copper pennies have a melt value of 2¢ right now. I will go out on a limb and predict that in the not too distant future you will see copper pennies being sold as "junk copper" the same way as junk silver already is. Even APMEX is geting in on the bullion aspect of it. They are selling copper pennies by the bag like they do junk silver. Copper is slowly becoming a precious metal. It will become a hedge against hyper inflation right next to gold and silver. Along with silver, copper has a vast array of industrial applications that will always keep it in demand, and valuable.
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Valued Member
United States
311 Posts |
From a numismatic point of view, I don't think that copper Lincoln Memorial Cents in average circulated condition will ever be worth a premium over melt. Look at it this way... the Mint melted down a huge number of Morgan silver dollars. The highest mintage of early Morgans was 1889, with just under 35 million split among the four mints, with 21.7M at Philly. The lowest mintage of LMCs was 261 million (1968-S). Circulated common-date Morgans barely get a premium over melt. However, for metal value... yeah, I'm hoarding copper cents as well. Buying a commodity for half of spot value is OK by me :)
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Quote: In short, Because the mint is (Most likely) either going to change the metal used in the making of a cent, Or stop production of it all together, It makes me wonder if the old Copper cents will suddenly see a spike in value. For all practical purposes the mint stopped using copper for the cent over 25 years ago. Even with the huge number of cents produced, I'm sure they use much more copper in the nickel each year than they use in the cents. (For example they used enough copper in the 2005 nickels to produce 14 billion Lincoln cents.) Ending the production of cents will not affect the value of the old copper cents. What WILL affect their value is the market price of copper. Quote: There's also another theory that once the change is made, The government will melt down mostly all of the publicly circulated Copper cents, Not only (Possibly) making the old copper cents rise in value, But making even the most minor error on a copper cent receive a boost in it's premium. If the market price of copper rises high enough I'm sure the government will start melting them down. There is precedent for this, in the late 60's all of the dimes quarters and halves that came through the Federal Reserve banks had to go through a separation machine that separated the silver from the clad coins and they melted down the silver. As a historical note at the time this was going on there was a law forbidding the people from melting down the silver coinage just as today we had a law forbidding the melting of cents and nickels. After the amount of silver dropped low enough that it wasn't cost effective to keep running the separation machines the law forbidding the melting of the silver coins was repealed. My guess is that once the number of copper cents still in circulation drops very low the no melt law for cents will disappear as well. But once again it will not be the melting of the cents that causes their rise in value but rather the market price of copper. I also don't believe it will cause any rise in the value of copper cents with minor erros be caus e the coins will still be too common. Even after over 40 years of melting down the silver coins, minor errors are them still don't bring any real premium over the metal value, and the mintages of the copper cents are MUCH higher. Quote: All of these rumors have got me excited, And make me wonder whether hoarding rolls of old copper cents would be worth it, Half for the copper content, And half for it's possible numismatic value. I'd forget numismatic value, but for the metal value it may eventually be worthwhile. Sure they are only worth 2X face right now, but I remember when the silver coins were worth LESS than 2X face, and I remember when there was a steady market in the bulk silver coins when they were 3X face. Quote: But is it all just rumors and speculation? Even if the government starts melting down Copper cents, Will it cause a rise in the value of copper cents? And even if it does, How many years potentially will it take until the rise in value of the copper cent becomes noticeable? As said the melting by the government will not have an effect. How many years? Who knows. It all depends on the metals market and no one can predict them accurately. Al you can say is that in the long run they will continue trending upwards, but how fast they will trend upwards no one can say. Quote:And would the rise in the value of copper also have a domino effect on Wheat and Indian Head cents values? On the common wheat cents maybe, because most of the value of those coins rests in the value of the metal. But even for the common Indian Head cents in low grade the value tends to run around 100 cents apiece with a copper value of 2 cents. If the copper in them rises to 3 or even 4 cents I don't see a 2 cent change in the copper value having much of an effect on the 100 cent numismatic value.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Looking at things scientifically I would suspect the usage of Copper will deminish to practically very little soon. Many usages of Copper for electrical conductors is even now being replaced with fiber optics. And electrical wiring inside electrical devices is vanishing due to the usage of such items as Silicon. Gold and Silver plating for contacts will soon not be required due to so many electronic switching systems, cellular systems for phones and the internet. Massive wires for homes for the phone is already vanishing. I have several neighbors that do not have a hard wired phone line into their homes. Numerous communication systems are being replaced with microwave and fiber optics. One more item not to popular in publications are how many organizations are attempting the old alchemist dream of changing metals from one to another. Nuclear bombardments have already being done to change some and if this is consintrated on making Gold, Silver or Copper, guess what will happen to the prices of those. Diamonds are already being manufactured and there is only a weakening world concern to not flood the market with manufactured ones. Coin values, numismatically, will always be there and if metals becomes a thing of the past, the older coins values will climb dramatically. Many people will laugh at the possibilities of making any kind of metals but once Aluminum was also a substance of fantastic value. And who would ever believe we could fly? For now metals are just barely hanging in there in value but in the near future I suspect you'll see a great drop in all coin values.
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New Member
United States
10 Posts |
i keep all the old cents from my change I have about $30 worth of copper cents. I ask friends if I can have their cents heh..( pennies) and they are glad to give them to me. :) I find copper most of the time.
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Valued Member
United States
346 Posts |
Yeah, I have a face value of $22 worth of copper pennies. Hopefully they'll go up in the future, but if not, oh well, not losing any money.
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Valued Member
United States
311 Posts |
Quote: Looking at things scientifically I would suspect the usage of Copper will deminish to practically very little soon. Many usages of Copper for electrical conductors is even now being replaced with fiber optics. And electrical wiring inside electrical devices is vanishing due to the usage of such items as Silicon. Gold and Silver plating for contacts will soon not be required due to so many electronic switching systems, cellular systems for phones and the internet. Massive wires for homes for the phone is already vanishing. I have several neighbors that do not have a hard wired phone line into their homes. Numerous communication systems are being replaced with microwave and fiber optics. I don't know about diminishing to very little. Electrical wiring inside the home is still copper in most areas, and a hundred feet of 14-2 Romex contains far, far more copper than 100 feet of twisted-pair phone line. Copper is still used widely for its heat-transfer properties as well. While aluminum is being substituted in a lot of applications, it does have significant disadvantages for some of the applications. And for right now, fiber-optic is crazy expensive compared to CAT5/6 or coax for data use. Personally, I'm wagering that severe inflation will drive up the dollar cost of copper long before the industrial uses go away, or transmutation becomes economically feasible...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
Quote: "Looking at things scientifically I would suspect the usage of Copper will diminish to practically very little soon". Two words: "Copper Pipe" (fiber optics don't make very good pipe for your hot-water heater!)  I'm sure all those third-world countries are replacing their copper electrical conductors with fiber-optics even as we write this...   Oh, and I'm sure that China, for example, is building all their new buildings with fiber-optic electrical wiring exclusively!  Just Carl makes many great points in his post, though, especially about what would happen to the price of 'precious metals' if they could be made synthetically (at an affordable cost). Most people don't even think about that possibility! My point, though, is that the third world infrastructure may not move at the same technological speed as we do, and even if we, the U.S. move past 'needing' certain precious metals, other countries may 'need' them for decades (even centuries!) longer... As for synthesized precious metals (silver, for example): That's why silver coins are a such a great 'double hedge' (as compared to silver bars). Even if 'synthetic silver' caused the spot silver price to drop below $1 an ounce, a common American Silver Eagle would still be $1 legal tender!  (Cash drawers across the country would collapse from the sudden influx of ASE's and 'junk silver', if silver ever went below $1/oz  ) The value of the best slabbed Morgans and Peace dollars is 'all numismatic', anyway!  This is an ironic subject to talk about with bullion silver being in such short supply right now, but it does make the point that IF cheap synthetic silver ever happens, 100 ASE's will be worth U.S. $100 and a 100 oz. silver bar will make a nice-looking doorstop  ... Just another reason why coins rule! 
Edited by DNA 09/23/2008 9:38 pm
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Valued Member
United States
164 Posts |
Let me throw my 2 cents in. One poster commented that common date Morgans are selling for just over melt value and that a large number have already been melted.
I wold make the point that no one knows exactly how many of each date and MM are left. What is now regarded as common may, in fact, not be common at all. When you look at the number melted by the Pittman Act, Some dates could very well have been almost wiped out and no one would be the wiser.
I guess it is all a matter of perception.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2661 Posts |
Well folks if I my put forward a slice of personal philosophy, I feel that any item be it a coin, bullion, or just a plain old cinder block is worth, and will only ever be worth what the highest bidder is willing to pay.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1040 Posts |
Quote: Two words: "Copper Pipe" Australia has been moving steadily away from copper pipe for over a decade now, there are cheaper, better alternatives with modern plastics. And as for china, I travel there a lot on business, within 10 years, China will be the most powerful economy in the world. There is more development, and high tech development at that, than anywhere else I have ever seen. My last trip earlier this year was an eye opener. In Guangzhou, a southern city not to far from Hong Kong, there was more development going on in terms of infrastructure and building in a 5km radius from my hotel, than there is in my entire home city of Melbourne, second largest city in Australia. And I am in construction. Out of necessity, other materials are used to expedite the development process. Copper is expensive, and suffers from supply shortages, so it isn't used where it is not necessary. Same in third world countries, which China definitely is not, cheaper, more practical methods are used. As these methods are further developed, forget about copper.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Quote: Two words: "Copper Pipe" (fiber optics don't make very good pipe for your hot-water heater!) No but there is a definite move to replace the copper water supply lines with plastic as latman100 said.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
19930 Posts |
My copper coins seem to be always going up in value!  
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Replies: 27 / Views: 6,003 |