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Will Copper Cents Go Up In Value Overtime?

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Madmartigan's Avatar
United States
264 Posts
 Posted 09/25/2008  9:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Madmartigan to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well even common morgans may be uncommon or rare soon. Look almost anywhere and you see companies buying any and all silver & gold. We just had a company rent out a hotel conference center to buy junk jewelry and such. Looking at one of the big coin shows recently you saw dealers with buckets and buckets of silver coins and such being purchased to send to be melted. Not just recent coins are going in there either.

I have always kept some copper cents, and all wheat cents. I've now taken an even more active interest in this. It serves dual purpose. One I have "cash on hand" if the unthinkable happens and there is a run on the banks or such. The whole liquidity issue. Side benefit is I have all that copper also for melt value if need be.

I've been buying up every "cheap" lot of bulk world coins I've been able to find also. I collect world coins but all those dupes, culls, and such have melt value in them also. Some of the old coins are almost pure copper, nickle, etc.
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BH1964's Avatar
United States
10982 Posts
 Posted 09/25/2008  10:34 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My BOLD prediction:

1959 to 1982 common date, circulated, copper cents will never have a numismatic premium (in the lifetime of anyone reading this).

But the melt value will continue rise to the point that they're worth searching. I've saved a few hundred already but don't actively search for them.

Melt Values - Here goes:

2009: 2¢
2019: 3¢
2029: 5¢
2039: 7¢

I see major inflation and thus a de-valued US dollar 20 to 30 years out and believe that a copper 1¢ piece will be worth 10¢ within 50 years!

Start searchin'!
ANA #R3154474
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DNA's Avatar
United States
2734 Posts
 Posted 09/25/2008  11:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DNA to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Well, even common Morgans may be uncommon or rare soon.


For common 1921 BU Morgans (currently selling for around $25), silver would have to hit $35 an ounce for their melt value to exceed their current (numismatic) price.

Barring a return of the Hunt Brothers ,
this would take years and years to happen in a 'stable' silver market, even with a fairly high rate of inflation.


Quote:
"...dealers with buckets and buckets of silver coins and such being purchased to send to be melted."


Umm, ever hear of "junk silver"? Why would coin dealers bother sending them to be melted when they can very easily sell them as "junk silver"?! There's a big demand by the customers for "junk silver" at the dealers I go to! "Junk silver" is very liquid (down to $1 increments in the case of "junk silver dimes"!), a known commodity, and it's still legal tender!

A bag of 100 common Morgans (for example) is a more upscale version of "junk silver", where you have some numismatic value to buffer the periodic drops in silver prices....

I would, however, say that those "traveling buyer shows" would be more likely to send off their acquired "junk gold & silver" for melting....
Edited by DNA
09/25/2008 11:56 pm
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Kabiye_Lady's Avatar
United States
581 Posts
 Posted 09/26/2008  09:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Kabiye_Lady to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I Love how one disparaging remark is made about Morgan dollars and all the Morgan dollar Mavens come out of the woodwork.

"Self: If you want a popular thread, just slam Morgans in an early post - they'll start swarming to the thread like bees to honey."

I also gotta remember that there's "upscale" junk silver too! Hilarious. Or is that <Capital J>unk silver!
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DNA's Avatar
United States
2734 Posts
 Posted 09/27/2008  8:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DNA to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One dealer I know of uses 4 increments for 'junk silver' bags (lowest priced bag type listed first).

  • Bag type #1 = Mix of Dimes (worn to BU Roosevelt, worn Mercs.), Washington quarters, JFK '64's and worn Franklins

  • Bag Type #2 = Half Dollars only (BU '64's and/or better Franklins)

  • Bag Type #3 = Dollar Bag; 1921 Morgans and/or 1922-35 Peace

  • Bag Type #4 = Dollar Bag; 1878-1904 Morgans


Needless to say, by the time you're at Bag Type #4, your 'junk bag' is at a high price premium over 'spot silver' and the buyer of this bag is seeking more 'numismatic' value in the total equation than the buyer of Bag Type #1. And yes, you could question whether a bag type such as '#4' that sells for nearly '2× Spot' price should even be called a 'junk bag', (even with a capital "J")
Edited by DNA
09/27/2008 8:42 pm
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XavierOfGreen's Avatar
United States
2589 Posts
 Posted 09/27/2008  11:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XavierOfGreen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
plastic melts at a relatively low temperature, cracks easily, and traps organics in its self. copper will be along for hot water piping for quite some time.
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Conder101's Avatar
United States
17884 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2008  12:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
My point, though, is that the third world infrastructure may not move at the same technological speed as we do, and even if we, the U.S. move past 'needing' certain precious metals, other countries may 'need' them for decades (even centuries!) longer..

Actually they do tend to leapfrog. Developing countries aren't running telegraph wires, then phone wire, to a large extent they are going straight microwave relay to cell towers. TV/video first comes to them as DVD's and satellite. Surveys are done by laser instead of tape rule and chain. Water is still bone by copper pipe but as plastic becomes more common place in the developed world it will also rapidly expand through the developing countries even faster and they will have a greater percentage of home plumbed with plastic than the developed world. (Because of the huge number of older homes in the developed world already plumbed with copper.)


Quote:
plastic melts at a relatively low temperature, cracks easily, and traps organics in its self. copper will be along for hot water piping for quite some time.

Depends on the plastic. Some plastics can withstand a few hundred degrees, well higher than liquid water can reach. Cracking can also depend on the plastic used (But you do have to take care to make sure the plastic doesn't change properties as it ages. Some are flexible when new but may become brittle as it ages etc.) And even if it takes awhile before its use becomes widespread for hot water, there are also cold water lines that can switch to plastics before the hot water does.


Quote:
Umm, ever hear of "junk silver"? Why would coin dealers bother sending them to be melted when they can very easily sell them as "junk silver"?! There's a big demand by the customers for "junk silver" at the dealers I go to!

Why? Because it is much easier to sell it to the smelters than it is to the "junk silver" market. If a dealer buys several bags of silver he has quite a bit of money tied up. It can take awhile to find buyers for these bags who are just looking to hold "junk silver". So the dealer has two choices in order to turn his money quickly, the smelter, or a larger buyer of "junk silver". The large buyer has the same problem. He will often get the silver in faster than it can go out to the hoarders. So once again the junk silver goes to the smelter because they can absorb considerably more than the smaller hoarders and the dealer gets paid immediately. If you don't believe this, talk to some of the large buyers and you will find that they send a lot of the "junk silver" off to the smelters.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2008  7:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

Two words: "Copper Pipe"
(fiber optics don't make very good pipe for your hot-water heater!)

I'm sure all those third-world countries are replacing their copper electrical conductors with fiber-optics even as we write this...
Oh, and I'm sure that China, for example, is building all their new buildings with fiber-optic electrical wiring exclusively!

Oddly enough you should really look into conductivity. Many labs are working steadily on conductors made of non metals. Fermi lab has already made and produced materials from one element to another. Only now the expense is rather high. Same with diamonds. They too are easily made and only the expense NOW is provocative.
As I noted I already have neighbors with no COPPER phone lines to their homes and soon many others will also go completely wireless. Remember the old days of a cable for your TV. Now you have a dish on your house, no wires to a pole. Countries such as China will also go for less wiring due to cost.
Numerous power stations have gone to Aluminum for Grounding to stop theft.
In Illinois ComEd has recently completed a fiber optic communications system for all stations and sub stations. They also have micro wave sites. Not much Copper there you know, just a lot of micro waves.
Much higher temperature plastics will soon enough replace your hot water piping. Even your dreaded PVC melts at 212 degrees and there are now plastics that will far outdo that.
As to the future of Copper coins. There are even now web sites for the distruction of our Copper coins by melting. Metal recyclers by me take in Copper coins all the time, no questions asked.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2008  7:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
OH one more thing. On several recent construction sites for underground systems in this area, no metals were used at all. Not even rebar for the duct runs. ALL manholes for electrical were premade and no metal rebar in those either. All ducts were made of PVC. ALL connections were PVC. ALL grounding was Aluminum. These are not small projects, they were numerous miles of ducts.
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DNA's Avatar
United States
2734 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2008  9:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DNA to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
"If you don't believe this, talk to some of the large buyers and you will find that they send a lot of the "junk silver" off to the smelters."


I have talked to the owners of two of the biggest coin/bullion shops in Denver, and they said they much prefer to sell it as "junk silver" to their customers for premiums above melt value (as opposed to the smelters) when the buyer demand for such is strong (like for all of 2008, basically!). At both of these shops, they say they have sold no 'junk silver' coins to smelters at all in 2008! One owner even said "I'm selling junk silver bags to you all so fast, I might run out of it!"

They said that in years where silver was weak and their customers didn't want junk silver and were dumping silver on them (1994, most specifically), that there were selling a lot of junk silver bags to smelters. I was just holding onto my 'worthless' silver back then...
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BadThad's Avatar
United States
19951 Posts
 Posted 10/08/2008  10:53 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadThad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
1959 to 1982 common date, circulated, copper cents will never have a numismatic premium (in the lifetime of anyone reading this).


I have to disagree. This series is one of the most abused and neglected series of coins in history. Regardless of mintage, finding quality pieces is extremely difficult and I think collectors are starting to realize that. I challenge any of you to assemble a collection of MS65+ RD coins over that time period. GOOD LUCK, you're going to need it.

EDIT - I saw you just said "circulated", OK, maybe so. Then again, if melting is ever permitted or even the mint gets agressively into melting, you could be wrong.
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Edited by BadThad
10/08/2008 10:55 am
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cladking's Avatar
United States
2271 Posts
 Posted 10/08/2008  11:25 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cladking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I have to disagree. This series is one of the most abused and neglected series of coins in history. Regardless of mintage, finding quality pieces is extremely difficult and I think collectors are starting to realize that. I challenge any of you to assemble a collection of MS65+ RD coins over that time period. GOOD LUCK, you're going to need it.

EDIT - I saw you just said "circulated", OK, maybe so. Then again, if melting is ever permitted or even the mint gets agressively into melting, you could be wrong.


I agree except that there is potential in the varieties even where circulated and a few of the coins in nice XF/ AU should get some small premium further out in time.

Anything that causes people to hoard these coins is bad for them long term. As long as they remained in circulation large percentages disappeared each year but they're much safer in collections and hoards.

The day will come that collectors start noticing you're right that nice attractive Lincolns made since 1958 can be very elusive and then the coins will be considered collectible.

Getting rid of the cent will focus attention on all the cents and will drive prices higher.

The zinc cents will probably be overlooked a little longer. These coins are being helped greatly by the removal of copper in the sense they bear the brunt of the wear and tear of continually being mixed with other cents and then being separated again. The process also leaves them the only coin "circulating" which increases their entropy.

Zinc cents aren't really designed to circulate as to provide a means to provide change. The slightest little nick and these coins rapidly begin a deterioration that ends with them being an ugly corroded mess and then tossed in a landfill or remelted. Even AU's and XF's of some of these will prove elusive in time.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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