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I Don't Win Auctions Anymore. How Should I Adjust My Bidding?

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 Posted 01/15/2021  2:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Was watching a Pawn Stars Youtube video last night that was all about rare coins. Several people came in the shop that wanted sky high prices (10x over auction estimates) for their coin. All proclaimed that THEIR price was the FAIR price and the other price didn't matter. "Good luck to you" I thought.
With bidding it can work both ways. If you 'never' win an auction, maybe it is not because other people are overpaying, but maybe it is because your "fair price" is unreasonably low. On the other hand, I have seen eBay auctions where the seller was like the guys trying to sell their coin with Pawn Stars and their asking price was just waaay too high, like 2x - 10x Greysheet.
Edited by NumisEd
01/15/2021 2:02 pm
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 Posted 01/15/2021  6:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add txgolfer56 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I've seen where the pricing guides are lagging the auction activity on coins I was interested in. As such, my max bids were not competitive. Plus, the winning bids exceeded previous auction prices as well. So, my research appeared to be dated. It could be a function of looking for specific type set coins too vs more frequently traded day date set coins.
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 Posted 01/16/2021  2:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JasonKflo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have been winning to many bids lately haha
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 Posted 01/16/2021  3:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add llewellin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I only bid on coins that already have lots of bids, the auction is the most accurate determinant of true market value
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 Posted 01/18/2021  1:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Andrew99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think many auctions are now going for full retail these days, a combination of more collector involvement, the shut down of shows, stimulus money, who knows?
The collection is in your mind. Dispose of your albums and free your mind from the tyranny of holes.
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 Posted 01/18/2021  1:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I think many auctions are now going for full retail these days, a combination of more collector involvement, the shut down of shows, stimulus money, who knows?


I fully agree. I'm a collector, and have been buying mainly from auctions for about a decade. In the early years, I sensed that I was bidding mainly against dealers, as they had to leave room for profits (but not me). Bargains were aplenty in those days. Now, occasionally I get bargains, but mostly the coins where I'm the high bidder are at "fair" prices, and occasionally I have to stretch with a strong max bid to get a coin that is really special.
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
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 Posted 01/18/2021  3:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I follow a number of antiques and collectibles categories and many of them are seeing steadily increasing prices and demand since the start of the pandemic. I am being outbid almost all the time for quality items and I am shocked by how much prices seem to be going up. Housing prices are also crazy right now and I think we are in a hyperinflationary period that is being hidden from the general public so not to cause panic. All of the monopoly money that is being printed and distributed by the government and the current policies of the FED are are cause I believe.
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 Posted 01/25/2021  01:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add newguy22 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@NumisED I'm agreeing with what you're saying. I think alot of the rising prices has to do with the free covid money. Suddenly, a lot of people who normally could not afford their "dream" coin suddenly have the funds to make the purchase. I'm sure once normalcy returns in the coming months, prices will correct and sooner or later, OP will be winning those auctions again ;)
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 Posted 01/26/2021  10:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Tonight I participated in a Heritage Auction and actually did win two coins. Contrary to what I mentioned before, I slightly changed my approach.
First of all, I made a list of all coins I was interested in and looked up past auction and Greysheet/NumisMedia prices for each coin. I also included a few coins I did not want to bid on ("dummy coins") but which were of similar quality AND were of an earlier lot number (very important!). I wrote the price of each coin down on a spreadsheet. Secondly, a couple of days before the auction I placed "place holder bids" well below Greysheet, knowing all too well I probably wouldn't win at these prices.
Just before the auction itself, I looked over the Proxy Bid tab sheet on Heritage but didn't really see the use of it. Then, when the "live" auction started, I followed every coin on my list, starting with the "dummy coins". I wrote down the sale prices of each coin next to the Greysheet price. That way I got a real-time indication of the "true price" of each coin.
Finally, when the coins came up for auction I was interested in, I closely followed the bidding and decided on the spot whether the price indicated was relatively good/bad compared to the "dummy coins".
To make a long story short, I bought two coins in the manner described above that I got for a lower priced than the "dummy coins", but were of similar quality.
Edited by NumisEd
01/26/2021 10:30 pm
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 Posted 01/26/2021  10:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Congratulations! I'm happy for you. Thanks for sharing your tips.

Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Out of curiosity, I ran through the bay's listings for circulated S half eagles 1855-1874 to see where pricing was relative to PCGS list. In most cases pricing is 50-100% higher than list - for details coins. Only two straight grade coins were priced at list.

There's a lot of optimism in pricing gouged, scratched and cleaned coins for double the price of a straight grade.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
There's a lot of optimism in pricing gouged, scratched and cleaned coins for double the price of a straight grade.


It doesn't surprise me. I think there are plenty of sellers who crack-out a details coin and pass it off as straight AU or even BU.
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The details coins I saw are mostly in slabs. There are a few raw ones with obvious polishing. Raw circulated coins with natural appearance have disappeared.

The two relatively common coins in this run are the 1856-S and 1857-S. Not anymore.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
01/27/2021 11:42 am
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Tonight I participated in a Heritage Auction and actually did win two coins.
Excellent!
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 Posted 01/27/2021  12:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Commemoratives still seem to be "bargains" compared to other coins.
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