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the base metal price is only part of the cost of production of a coin.
True, but it is by far the largest part. Non-material cost of production is typically less than a cent each for small round coins, to a few cents each for the large, funky-shaped 50 cents.
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so you are in fact agreeing that in the real world only a republic would change the obverse of our coins.
For the foreseeable future, yes I would agree. But just because you and I have trouble imagining a situation where the queen is removed from the coinage
without us formally becoming a republic, doesn't mean it will never happen. Stranger things have happened in Australian politics.
Imagine this hypothetical scenario: republican sentiment running high in two or three of the larger states, but low in the rest. A referendum for a republic could get a clear overall majority vote, yet still fail to secure the required majority of states. Under such circumstances, a federal government might feel justified in going with the apparent anti-monarchy majority opinion and remove the monarch from the coinage.
I mainly raised the point to illustrate that "Australia becoming a republic" and "removing the queen from the coinage" are in fact two separate issues - we can in theory do one without doing the other. We could, in theory, even do what Fiji did: become a republic but keep the queen on the coinage.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis