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Do Specimens Tend To Drop In Price When Note Is Replaced ?

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Valued Member
Baanos's Avatar
Canada
290 Posts
 Posted 02/22/2012  7:33 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Baanos to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Sorry, title length restriction could not allow me to make this clearer.

Do specimens tend to drop in price when a new note is printed ? I really have no clue as I am relatively new to the hobby, but here is why I would think it does:

The price for a specimen may be high when its legal tender version is in circulation, since foreign banks are all holding on to them. But when this note stops being in use and a new note comes out, banks no longer need the specimens, I'm not sure if they throw some away, but inevitably a bunch of them will be sold to people through auctions since they no longer have a need for them. Then a lot more specimens will be in the hands of the general public compared to when its legal tender version was in circulation.

I am starting a specimen collection, and I just bought(but not paid for yet) on ebay a 2004-2006 100,000 Vietnamese dong specimen note for about 62$ which may be a bit lower than the current market value. But, I am scared I just made a big mistake. I'm thinking, since the regular note is still in circulation, the price may drop dramatically when a new note is issued.

Help would be appreciated
Pillar of the Community
United States
1231 Posts
 Posted 02/22/2012  9:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add onejinx to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't think they tend to drop. It would be based on printing numbers and not very many countries seem to make the numbers known. I have seen some numbers for NZ specimens with 500 made. Thailand has one with 10,000 made. And I'm sure there are many others with varying numbers.

I have a set of the Vietnamese dong specimens that I got years ago. Not sure what they are valued at
Valued Member
Australia
146 Posts
 Posted 02/22/2012  10:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add huckles888 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think generally you may find that the value of specimen notes (excluding those issued purely for the Collector Market - they tend to be numbered etc) follow the trend of the "issued" note that they replicate

PS forgot to add - I dont believe there is any strong correlation between "value" and whether the underlying note is in circulation or out of circulation
Edited by huckles888
02/22/2012 10:54 pm
Valued Member
almingbg's Avatar
Sweden
71 Posts
 Posted 02/23/2012  02:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add almingbg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No, value of the specimen note is not affected with a circulating status of the banknote. Specimens usually have low printing numbers and often very tough to get. I have several specimens from Bosnia (all zeros and another number on bottom, only 1000 notes printed) and will be glad to trade them with you as soon as you reach 50 posts. Just give me a call.
Pillar of the Community
United States
742 Posts
 Posted 02/23/2012  1:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add lettow to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As was suggested to you in a post on anther discussion board about the topic of specimens, you really need to get yourself educated about how specimens are dealt with in each country that you may be interested in. Not all specimen notes are scarce. Not all are expensive and not all are going to increase in value.

I don't pretend to be an expert on the notes of Vietnam but it has a history of releasing specimen notes based on the listings in the Standard Catalog.
Valued Member
Baanos's Avatar
Canada
290 Posts
 Posted 02/23/2012  4:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Baanos to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It would be based on printing numbers and not very many countries seem to make the numbers known.


Quote:
I dont believe there is any strong correlation between "value" and whether the underlying note is in circulation or out of circulation


Quote:
No, value of the specimen note is not affected with a circulating status of the banknote.


So, let me illustrate what I now understand with a hypothetical scenario. Let's say 5000 specimens of a given note are printed and handed over to foreign banks. And let's say that 300 of those found their way to collectors somehow, which would make it extremely scarce at the time. The value for this note is currently 60$ and would be based on the number of specimens printed and not the number of specimens currently in circulation. At one point in time, foreign banks no longer need the remaining 4700 specimens due to the issuance of a new note. Let's say that 3000 specimens are released and sold to collectors and that 1700 are destroyed. I would think that this would create a huge competition between dealers to sell this particular note and the price would then drop dramatically.

Isn't that plausible ? Or perhaps foreign banks don't actually mass release specimens even when a new note is issued because they know they will still encounter older versions of the note. Prices would remain the same in this case. However, they would not need the specimens anymore if a new currency would be issued and then they would mass release the remaining specimens to dealers/collectors and my scenario is plausible in this case?
Valued Member
Baanos's Avatar
Canada
290 Posts
 Posted 02/23/2012  4:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Baanos to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
you really need to get yourself educated about how specimens are dealt with in each country that you may be interested in. Not all specimen notes are scarce. Not all are expensive and not all are going to increase in value.


Yes, I do understand that, I'm actually the OP of that topic on the other discussion board. Seems like a great challenge to get educated about specimens, this makes me want to collect them even more.
Valued Member
almingbg's Avatar
Sweden
71 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2012  02:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add almingbg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The value for this note is currently 60$ and would be based on the number of specimens printed and not the number of specimens currently in circulation.


The value of the specimen notes are based on supply and demand. Specimens from more popular countries (from collecting point of view) are more expensive than others. Also, specimens from some countries are very difficult to find (try to find a specimen note from Sweden for less than several hundred dollars) and therefore more expensive.
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