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TPG Pricing Differentials Amazing...and Stupifying To Novice

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ilikeikes's Avatar
United States
1205 Posts
 Posted 05/28/2012  8:44 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add ilikeikes to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I won some NGC PROOF70 DCAM Jefferson nickels..put in lowball bids on 2000-2011 PF70 DCAM coins, and, ended up winning 5...the price difference between numismedia FMV, and PCGS(I know, it's supposed to be ONLY for THEIR coins, and, 99% over-valued, most will say)...but, sill, like for the 2007-S....Numismedia=$36.25, and, PCGS=$275!!!....I could see maybe PCGS saying $75, or, $125 tops, but $275 seems WAY out of line.....NGC for 2007 DCAM states $36.25...which seems in line, to this novice collector
I would HOPE my nickels are properly graded, and, not really 69's, only in hand, side by side will I be able to see this mysterious grading system in all it's glory, and, make my own determination whether the difference is worth bothering over(for a basic collection, PF69 should be adequate..as a small investment, for, say 5-10 years down the line, PF 70's would seem the way to go, I'm doing both runs of 2000-2012 in both 69 & 70 to start, and, will decide whether to shell out more $$$, and do the 1990's also, which, obviously, starts getting into serious money the further back one goes...bottom line, I'm not out enough money to lose sleep over, I may have some truly beautiful coins for my collection, and, I'll learn a lot about not only the difference between the 2 grades, but, how NGC differs from PCGS on 5c grading..(NGC I believe only uses the 5-step full-steps grading method, while PCGS uses the 6-steps, a thread for another day)...as far as the price difference, I can live in fantasy-land for a day or two, and, pretend I got a almost $300 nickel for less than $17.50...in reality, half off FMV still seems like a steal....I have studied my PCGS PF69 coins carefully, and, found tiny rim ding, minor scuff, or nick that has prevented the perfect grade, so, they seem spot on, grading wise...I hope NGC is tough on nickel grading, as I have an ANA membership, which allows "Free" submissions, which is nice...no extra membership fees.
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 05/28/2012  9:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
PCGS price guide usually is high but they only consider their own coins when making it. If theyve only graded 20 as 70s as far as theyre concerned only 20 exist. They could care less how many NGC has graded. Some of the older coins its more accurate, but assuming you got the coins on ebay the pricing is all over the place. Those coins could go for more or less on any given day depending how many are listed ect. PCGS is currently the harder grader which is why their coins fetch a premium and while they dont admit it I am convinced they will only grade so many 70s per coin to control its population and the rest will get 69s until some are bought back or downgraded.

As far as 69 vs 70s, for Moderns I am a firm believer if you ever want them to appreciate in value in your lifetime 70 is the only way to go. Look back at some older coins where 70s go for a couple hundred and 69s are still the same price they were the day they were slabbed. Theres just FAR to many 69s and with modern uncir or proof coins everyone just assumes anything raw would grade a 69 with the new mint technology.

Numis is a good price guide for approximate values, but the individual coin has a lot to do with it to for the more expensive and rare coins. Not ever 66 is the same ect and some are harder to find than others. For the modern coins you dont really have that problem of being hard to find for the most part.
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
United States
23522 Posts
 Posted 05/28/2012  9:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A recently-developed factor which nobody is yet accounting for is the sheer availability of both coins and information about those coins.

The Internet has changed everything. Everything. Overnight, your choices for what coin to buy have gone from the three or four that your local dealer has, plus whatever you had in-stock from your mailorder listers, to thousands of possibilities from sellers all over the world.

And yesterday's sales are now today's instantly-available archives. If you were collecting in the 80's - did you know what your fellows felt like paying for that coin? Um, nope. But now you can tell. Because the Internet has made coin sales transparently public, far more accessible and far easier to archive as publicly-available records. At least, those sales offered by the people who have figured out where it's going - Heritage, Teletrade, ebay.

The Greysheet is done. Treeware coin price lists are done. They were done years ago, but the publishers don't get it, nor do those who rely upon those lists.

What you pay for this coin is what someone chose to pay for it yesterday. It's that simple, now. Maybe you lose because of that, maybe you win.

But you better do it, because that's where we are now. It's a new reality. Coin collecting will adapt; there are still plenty of people wanting to buy coins. But the methodology will never be the same.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts
 Posted 05/30/2012  12:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1893S to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Dave, I have to respectfully disagree.

1. What someone paid for a coin yesterday is by no means a guarantee as to the cost today or tomorrow.
2.The Greysheet isn't done. It is a basis to determine fair prices realized by sellers and buyers in recent time. Kind of like the Blue Book for cars. Some cars when sight seen are worth more than others of that year and make.
3. When I go to the local Coin Shows in my area there is a magnitude of coins available.
4.In the 80's we DID know what others were paying and selling coins for as you just asked both sellers and buyers and could check a large variety of resources such as coin prices at shows, adds in Mags, etc. it wasn't the Stone Age.
5.Heritage and ebay are aquiring alot of their coins from people that need fast cash. When Heritage comes up with a number of let's say 15 Million sold at a certain auction, that is nothing compared to daily sales by honest coin dealers on a daily basis.
6. I would guess that Coin Dealers that sell at shows or at their shop or privately comprise of 90% of all coins sold.
7. Anyone that buys a coin sight unseen unless they know the history of the specific coin is a fool unless it's a generic deal.
8. Coin sales and purchases will always be predominantly done in person and locally.
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 05/30/2012  5:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
1983 I have to disagree with numbers 6 and 8. There are far to many coins sold on the internet now a days for 90% to be done in person and with pictures and technology coin sales will only go more and more to internet sales in time. The internet gives buyers access to coins they wouldnt have had and gives sellers better chances to sell.

Older sellers may not join the fad, but as the generations that have had internet all their life internet coin sales will skyrocket
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SteveCaruso's Avatar
United States
1796 Posts
 Posted 05/30/2012  10:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SteveCaruso to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I also have a few things to add:


Quote:
1. What someone paid for a coin yesterday is by no means a guarantee as to the cost today or tomorrow.
2.The Greysheet isn't done. It is a basis to determine fair prices realized by sellers and buyers in recent time. Kind of like the Blue Book for cars. Some cars when sight seen are worth more than others of that year and make.


Aye, no guarantee, but it's an instant indicator to someone who is savvy. A weekly paper Greysheet is simply too slow to keep up.


Quote:
6. I would guess that Coin Dealers that sell at shows or at their shop or privately comprise of 90% of all coins sold.


Nope. ebay and other auction sites, etc., have eclipsed -- I'd hazard to guess -- a majority of all coin sales in modern day.

Keep in mind though that this is also due to the fact that they sell a lot of coins both *by* and *to* people who aren't collectors or dealers (or in many cases know what the !@#$% they're doing). Numismatists like you and I now have to "fight" for coins on such sites, often bidding against people who are completely uninformed (or worse: half-informed -- much moreso on ebay).

Also, a *lot* of coin dealers are setting up shop online as well. All of my local coin shops have done so.


Quote:
7. Anyone that buys a coin sight unseen unless they know the history of the specific coin is a fool unless it's a generic deal.


AMEN! ... Wow I actually said that out loud before I typed it. That's uncharacteristic of me. :-)


Quote:
8. Coin sales and purchases will always be predominantly done in person and locally.


This is what they said about paperback book sales (that people will always buy the physical book from a store)... And now Amazon sells 105 e-books for every 100 paperbacks they sell, and they're the world's largest bookseller.

As we become an increasingly digital society, it's bound to happen. In numismatics, simply because of the nature and current demographics of the hobby, it will be slower; however, it will happen. The convenience and speed is too great, and nearly all new followers of the hobby are "digital natives," growing up in a world where they cannot remember a time when there was no Facebook. :-)

It's scary stuff.
Edited by SteveCaruso
05/30/2012 10:43 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
3184 Posts
 Posted 05/30/2012  11:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkman123 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Just collect to enjoy and don't worry about money or which company is better like PCGS or NGC. Both are good, both make mistakes. Don't be pro pcgs and drink the koolaid and dislike NGC. I like both companies as well as ANACs. I buy what I like.....buy the coin not the holder
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ilikeikes's Avatar
United States
1205 Posts
 Posted 05/31/2012  12:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ilikeikes to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I just wish NGC would redesign their holders...the 4 white prongs are so distracting to me..other than that minor issue, I have had mostly excellent results with them...I like the "clean" look of the Anacs slabs, and, PCGS seems nice on the eyes too...my point is a holder should focus your eyes into the coin, and not let graphics and hardware interfere with the viewing pleasure.
cg
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 05/31/2012  12:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I just wish NGC would redesign their holders...the 4 white prongs are so distracting to me..other than that minor issue, I have had mostly excellent results with them...I like the "clean" look of the Anacs slabs, and, PCGS seems nice on the eyes too...my point is a holder should focus your eyes into the coin, and not let graphics and hardware interfere with the viewing pleasure.
cg


I couldnt agree more, the white just stands out to much and really does distract from the coin. I really like the clear look that PCGS and Anacs have which draws you to the coin instead of the holder.

I guess NGC wanted to be different, but to me it isn't a good thing
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Conder101's Avatar
United States
17884 Posts
 Posted 05/31/2012  2:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
. A weekly paper Greysheet is simply too slow to keep up.

I disagree, other than those coins where 90% of their value comes from bullion, coin prices don't change that fast. A weekly graysheet and the monthly/quarterly supplements work just fine even if you are dealing buy/sell every day. that is why most coins are still priced by the dealers using their graysheets.


Quote:
7. Anyone that buys a coin sight unseen unless they know the history of the specific coin is a fool unless it's a generic deal.

Or they really know the seller and how they grade. Buying slabs sight unseen based just on the label grades on the otherhand IS foolish. (It is very important to understand what sight unseen means. It means you buy it without seeing it first and it is YOURS, no return privileges. Buying a coin from a printed listing with no picture and being able to send it back if you don't like it is NOT sight unseen buying!)

They have improved some. They redesigned them last August and made the prongs noticeably narrower. But they are still white.
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