What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

Lurking Listening and Learning from all the great minds here and oceans of knowledge.

well no, its not "talk".

As a trader, being immersed in this day after day, year after year, you see the same patterns repeat over and over and over and over. You watch and you hear people always say the same things over such as "oh theres no way it can go higher" or "its done going lower" or the ever "well the worst is over, price is moving again" and even the often "how do you like that, we were up for a week and now we lost all of it this week". There is a reason for this.

The general public and all too often crappy traders fail to recognize patterns that repeat. Price advancements, failure to follow through, all this happens all the time with good reason. Price has memory and it is attracted to spots like a magnet. Eventually tho those areas dont hold up, either on the way up or down.

SO anyone who says "it will be what it will be" is very ignorant of repeating price patterns. What we are seeing in gold and silver right now has already happened in the past. Anyone whos been paying attention has been waiting for this sort of retracement. Markets dont pull price levels out of the air as some sort of mystery or voodoo hoodoo. No, rather, the price action is repeating itself and hitting levels that have major points of buying, selling. Now whether those points hold up again, that we let the market decide.

i have not looked at the volume on certificate trading and the OP knows better than most of us I suspect with a few exceptions, my point: is there a squeeze on the shorts driving the pricing here? If so, once they're all squeezed out, will we see a dip, if yes % guess?

I'm still all in at Gold/Silver to hover $1400/$28 as it steadies here and see those levels maintain with no breakthrough on resistance until we see significant economic news from our Fed. Taper off the $85BN charity printing and PMs will break their oppressive ceilings for the next big run. Maybe couple some dead cat bounces in-between and short squeezes on paper trades as well to make some quick profits while all of this transitioning is taking place, no?

It could just be as simple as silvers easier to move because it cost less. Buying enough silver to move the price up will cost a heck of a lot less than gold.

By the way did anyone else notice the gold and silver commemercials go into overdrive when the prices were falling? I know its kind of a simplistic view of it but at least in our area the advertising went full swing maybe it worked.

I regularly glance at the news headlines on Kitco. Now I understand they exist to make money on Gold and Silver.

But the big headlines were basically; "Gold up on Syria/Safe haven buying'. Really? Syria? The same old, same old that is going on for months already? It reminds me of the run up in gold the first time. "The economy is bad, BUY gold", "The economy is good, BUY, gold"; "there's snow in the Alps BUY gold"; "people are buying gold, BUY gold".

You know, I get Yup, and respect him; even when I disagree.

He reminds me of the Pro Surfer that knows how to recognize the patterns in the ocean and when to catch a wave as it develops; and riding it in to shore where it ends. Thats all he needs to know to be happy and successful and it fits his goals and needs.

I'm more like the Oceanographer that tries to understand why that wave developed in the first place.

Some of you know me, and know that in my first career I spent almost 20 years as an Interviewer, or what used to be called an Interrogator. And it's all about getting into someones head using non physical means. Which means using psychology, and empathy, to make someone admit to things like Murder, Rape; among others

I used to have a sign on my desk that encapsulated my own observations; "Perception and desire will destroy truth and reality every time".

As I see it we have a huge market that has sprung up to capitalize on the run up of gold and silver. This market made mad money on the way up. And like most businesses, can't simply close their doors, fire their works; and break their leases. They have a vested interest in seeing the prices of pm's go up. I call them the cheerleaders.

They have made less and less money on what Yup calls a broken asset; which I agree with. But they work with the known techniques of controling "the herd". Herd psychology is well known. The people they work with WANT higher pm prices. Why? To increase their personal wealth; obviously. Most of them don't know how to make money like Yup and ONLY know how to make money on the way up. That is if you buy on the way up and sell, and buy and sell, you can only make money. It was easy, it was seductive and it required no thought.

Especially because the underlying motivation is greed. I have to tell you the easiest way to manipulate people is through greed. When I worked in the field the easiest way, by far, to get to a subject was to work through greed. Greed makes people completely forget about logic; or consequences; or reality.

So on the way up ANY excuse was a good excuse to bring people into the market and drive the price up.

One of the more common themes was that there was a "shortage" of Silver. I used to post links from Industry sources which showed that there was always a surplus of silver...ever...single...year. And that the surplus grew with all the recycling, until you have a point right now where there is a two to three year supply of industrial silver sitting in wherehouses. Think about that for a moment. If the Oil companies had enough gas in their storage tanks to supply the whole world for the next two years, what would happen to the price of gas?

From my perspective, and learning a few things from Yup, it seems we had a big drop in price because of possible tapering of QE. Then a lot of people dove into the market and went short trying to cash in on the dropping market. But I guess it isn't as easy to make money on the way down as it is on the way up. And we had a series of short squeezes that forced the market up, and up, and up again. This up trend caught the attention of the cheerleaders that piled on about bottoms, and the historic uptreand, shortages ( again!) and increased demand from India and Asia.

These people, who are after all part of the market, want and need, the price of PM's to go up to make money.

Now that demand destruction is being brought about because of the rise in prices, the cheerleaders need to find other reasons to "shout up" the price in PM's.

Syria; Safe haven; short squeeze; Egypt; Debt ceiling; Obama care; ect ect are all going to be used to drive the price up.

But I ask, what happens when we really do get an end to QE? We saw what happened when we got a RUMOR of the end of QE.

Do we really think it will be any less of a drop when it really happens vs the possibility of it happening?

They think they do just like Iraq. But no mention on actual issue in Egypt with all the 'spring' there! Killing Christians in the name of shatever they are seems to be being missed by our leaders

I know. No mention of ISON for the most part either. Just that it will just pass on by. Coast to coast has shows as well as Ground zero.