What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

I am sorry Nod but I have to disagree and heres why... and I do agree that traders do not set the price, yes thats very true.

lets talk corn.
Corn prices, like any other commodity, work on supply and demand. Traders do not decide where prices are going. That is based on the market, as it decides what the market price is.

The market is influenced by supply and demand. It has many participants, in the corn market, you have many people involved. You have large funds, you have farmers, you have large food corporations and other entities to give some examples of who is involved in the market. These as a whole make up the market. As supply and demand change, and as the markets look ahead and into the future, prices change and take their respective trends or directions.

Finally, that is a blanket statement to say that when you take a contract, you are betting whether it goes go or down. Thats not really correct. As a trader, I only take a contract when I see a clear trend in either direction, as dictated by the MARKET. I will not make a move without getting confirmation. No one takes a position at random.

I also need to clarify the misconception of the USD. Again, that is a blanket statement to say that weakness/strength in the USD is tied to commodities. The fact of the matter is we have many times correlations that sometimes run in tandem and sometimes diverge. It is not true that the USD has a constant effect on commodities.

So to sum it up, many forces come to work to establish the futures contracts and that is based on supply and demand. Traders follow the trends in these contracts and do not make blind bets. Major fund money, based on what they know regarding supply and demand pushes these prices in their respective trends.

WOW Trout thank u! I didnt even notice that!

I must say I enjoy being a part of this community and I want everyone to know that I appreciate them all even if they dont agree with me, or if they feel that I am trying to ruffle their feathers, which I am not.

I truly enjoy being here and want to make the best contribution I know how and thats why I started this thread.

I mean well, I just want to help those who look at buying physical PMs for investment, that I can help them get the BEST possible prices, avoid buying at the wrong time and to see that it IS possible to understand what direction prices go and how it works.

I attempt to keep this watered down and simple so that its easier to grasp and avoids the gibberish and confusing noise that is out there.

Bear on Gold
Bear on Silver.

Save up to buy bulk silver coins ... cheaper.
Might even be able to get MS+++ cheaper too.
If depression hits, cash will be king.

quick update here-

pull up the charts from last week,,, gold has made an attempt at that line and actually got up above it for a bit today.

Tomorrow should be interesting, does it get rejected here or build on it?

I will try to get some updated charts, but key move here for gold in the short term.

Silver continues to be locked up in a range.

So for gold, watch and see if it continues to build momentum, or does it simply run a bit higher and rolls over again... watch and wait.... and more later

Going to try and get some quick charts up during the day here. But look at the line we talked about... golds going into it, there will be more of a push, I'd have to say as it clears these short term price areas.

I like buying gold up here for a trade as it clears these areas.

Silver still not above its respective line, so the jury is still out.

FIrst thing that comes to my mind is in all of this IF I was a long term holder: SELL a chunk into this rally. I wouldnt sell everything but I would be a seller of some gold.

more later

I am shocked no one is talking about this today on this forum, I been very tied up but I Am going to try super hard to demonstrate today in a few charts the range thats been broken in both silver and gold... remember we had talked last week about how a range gets probed and finally it gives in... well both silver and gold probed and pushed higher and broke it.

I think one thing thats key is the comment from Jim regarding people wanting to sell gold before it crashes again. Is it sentiment thats pushing this higher... the old "everyone hates it" and it does the inverse?

The break out of the range is very key here, that its holding without a violent pull back is key. Going forward, there are many levels that both gold and silver will run into that will act as walls. However, what needs to be done now is, just as we had levels on the way down, we'll take each level, one a time as it moves up.

Ok so-

last charts we had up we highlighted the areas were gold had probed the upper line. Multiple attempts and yet nothing. Also, we had gold run lower and bounce twice, higher.

I will repeat myself- when a certain area is probed repeatedly by price, it eventually gives in. This is what happened in gold and we find the price higher now. Also, remember price has memory, so expect sooner or later, there will be levels that turn into walls and gold will need to work out what it wants to do. Again, this is going to come down to the buyers versus the sellers. Price is the ultimate decision maker here, and no matter what, we must adhere to what its saying and what its doing.

First chart is a look at our proxy of GLD. We can see again, we ripped past last weeks line, now we are above it. What happens next? Thats going to be interesting. Thus far no violent selling. What would be constructive if you want higher prices is just a lot of back and forth around here, no giving up major gains and just churning, before moving higher.





Now, I know folks are saying, what levels are we looking at next? We can't say with an exact statement that price will be X. But, we can look at prices from the past and see what levels we can crack and attempt to get too. I am including a yearly chart with some suggested levels to look at.





So give it some time. There will be levels that are going to be brick walls. Price will be the GUIDE to where we go. Why are we going higher? I have no idea, no clue, and I dont care. I am not going to waste time thinking or giving an opinion why. All I know as a trader is that certain important areas on the upside have now been breached. Now what remains to be seen is if this leads to bigger and higher prices. The clues will build up, level by level.

Just as I have been cautious on the way down, I remain cautious on the way back up. Had not gold not gapped up on this break, I would been a buyer for a trade and I will be looking for any trades to the upside.

So, lets pay attention to price. Gold still has a lot of work in front of it. But keep an open mind while remaining cautious on how much of this sticks. We will get many clues as to how strong this move is. Dont worry if you didnt buy at the lows, it is better to buy when there is real buying and prices stick, rather than blindly buying on the way down, not knowing where the bottom really is.

I will have updates on silver to follow this weekend. I am very tight on time so I wanted to first get gold out there. If I got something wrong in context here or have questions let me know, I Am doing this on the fly as we speak but I feel bad I havent updated with charts so everyone can see how price works in either direction.

had to do an edit for a grammer error,,, if I made others I am sorry, as I said, I am doing this on the fly so I apologize.

@allspice

yes, thats correct, thats another way saying it.

To answer your question- This range, or channel, could indeed revert lower, and depending on the selling, yes, in theory we could re-test those lows. Again, that would depend on how much and how heavy the selling got.

Keep in mind tho, now those lower prices below, will now turn into support, slowing down a move lower.

For now, we give the move benefit of the doubt since its broken higher out of its range, built on it and hasnt looked back yet, its been able to build on its gains. Continue to watch how price deals with pull backs as well.

the bigger looming question is- is this move for real? I dont have a clue, the biggest clues will be left by how it tackles each area of resistance on the way up and if this ends up making yearly highs.

anything is possible