What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

super surprised no one is talking about this today... breaking out of the range. If you notice, thus far, its been successive week after week, after building a range, that gold breaks out, holds the range, and breaks out. Now its entering, with today, that gap down I last talked about.

Silver, on the other hand, still has to put in work ahead of itself.

@allspice

well.... with gold, the gap, that was some really crazy heavy selling, so thats where our eyes should be at. How does it react there,,, filling that gap,,, getting into it, and holding would be a MAJOR deal for gold. Resistance loom ahead for gold, but at what point? It will show itself. I find it extremely interesting how it has hold tho, its gains thus far.


What we do now is this thus far-

The pull backs get bought thus far. I think at this pace, the next round number of 1400 gold isn't that silly.

Now we know what ranges to look that will act as support for gold as it pulls back and where buyer could step in.

The price action is constructive.

@Mac

Depends on what and whos time frame.

Whats even more interesting is that money seems to be floating into commodities, some have reversed on a dime, such as coffee, out of its steep muti-down trend into yearly highs and cocoa at yearly highs as well.

Other such as wheat, corn are trying to work off their bottoms and break trend lines.

On the flip side, we have base metals, such as copper, doing horrible and going lower and at yearly lows.

yup........






Hi yup!

I like futures also ... Question please .... I see Silver may be braking out on the up side (intermediate term)

What say you?

Question: In your opinion how much of this current rally over the past few weeks is due to the situation in Ukraine? If prices are going higher due to Russian actions, will this momentum/price increase in both gold and silver be retained after the fate of Ukraine is settled? It sure looks like Putin is preparing for a large scale invasion/occupation of not only Crimea but other portions of the country as well.

I also have found it interesting that gold has been much stronger than silver in the short term.

Guys, sorry been extremely busy here trading wise in the past week and other projects.

I promise I will have some charts up, super simple charts so we can see where we are going and where we are at.

I want to say this: WOW gold has had one heck of a breakout, holy toledo! Silver, not so hot.

I will address everyones questions in the post, I crank something out this Saturday, and I also want to share a few commodity charts also.... such as coffee. I want to show and illustrate how once things get going, they rip... but also how somethings rip, and then fail.

I mean, I gotta say a trader, respect the price action. I am neutral on everything always, but man this has been one rip roaring move in price action in gold. Anyone who has continued to sell short gold or remained short has been just smashed and tore up.

But see, these are how markets are.. and why I want to throw in a few charts of related commodities, sometimes, the sentiment is so bad, everyone gets on one side, and bammmm and everyone gets wrong footed.

that said, gold still has work ahead of itself. However, everyday, every week, every month that goes by, we are getting clues. Note tho, how silver really has lagged.

I will have a bunch of charts thrown up this weekend. I also want to repeat myself that to me, charts ONLY tell us what has happened and gives us clues in regards to how price can react. Remember, price has memory, that works on the way up and down.

thank you for patience

Ok let me get right into this.

First let me state this as always: Let price be your guide, not your opinion. Dont confuse events as the reasons for something happening. NEVER allow your thoughts and opinions to cloud your mind so that you fail to yield to price action. Prices and price action as set by the market are the ultimate decider of where an asset goes.

The charts I throw up are only for reference, as a way of spotting where price has gone. They are an easy way to make out of and record how price reacts. Always remember that charts only tell us the PAST. Not of the future.

Finally, I keep the charts super simple and clean. Sure, we could put moving averages, andrews pitchfork, Bollinger Bands, Eliott waves, Fibs, and more. However, I find that keeping it is simple and also makes it very easy to follow along. By just following price action, we can learn a lot about the asset.

First up, I want to illustrate how rapidly and fast some assets can turn on a dime out of downtrends. To keep this easy to pull up I will be using some other ETNs that mimic and follow the prices of various commodities. Lets take a long term chart of coffee first, and we will use our proxy JO for that. This is a 5 year chart below-





Notice the 2 year downtrend. a very powerful downtrend.





Next, above is a 1 year look at coffee. Notice how the price churns around the bottom, doesn't hit another yearly low and then the steady nonstop buying comes in. So much buying came in that in a short period of time, coffee was out of its downtrend and at yearly highs.


Lets look at another commodity, sugar. First look at the price via 5 years, via the ETN SGG.





In the 5 year time period it has had some yearly highs, then proceeded to go into a down trend.


Now look at the yearly chart for SGG. Clearly in a downtrend, follow by a sharp rally as it was touching yearly lows, another yearly low, another sharp rally but not as strong as the first and now looking currently weak again.





So why do I pull these charts up? I want to illustrate how you have to keep an open mind. But you also need to know that counter trend rallies can occur within a trend and they neccesarily mean an asset is back to form. this is how price operates. With coffee, there was enough sharp, steady buying that it snapped its downtrend and went to yearly highs, putting it in uptrend. Sugar, while rallying several times out of its yearly lows, out of its downtrend, its current rally ran out of steam as we can see of late.

The same patterns will emerge in silver and gold. The buying will continue, some resistance might cause some pull backs, or perhaps the buying is enough to trump the levels of resistance. The element of time is key here as well. Time will tell us if gold and silver are just experince big massive counter trend moves or really are working on breaking out of their downtrends in a solid convicing fashion.

With that said, lets look at silver first, and we will look at our proxy, SLV-





So, pretty interesting here. For starters, silver is holding that gap up that happened on 2/14, where the blue arrow is at. Notice that ever tho, weeks later, silver gapped down and even filled the gap almost, it bounced right off it weeks later. Thats a positive. Silver has had some range bound trade, notice how price consolidated between the yellow and red line at the yellow arrow, dipped below that line, came into the aqua blue line, bounced off of it, and even on Friday almost broke back into the range where the yellow arrow is.

There is clearly support for silver around 20.60ish area. Look for higher prices ahead if silver and rip past 22.18. If not, looks like silver is range bound. Being range bound will offer us clues when it breaks that range, so be patient and wait to see first if we rip higher.


now lets look at gold, using our proxy GLD






Ok, same chart pretty much from last update. I love how SIMPLE and clean this looks,, I just LOVE how price is telling the story. Again look at teh green arrow, gold broke out there after consolidating in that range.

It continued its push higher, going into the white line, building a range, a small pull back, and continued again to push higher out of its range, go into the range where the blue arrow is at, consolidated yet AGAIN in that range.

Now look at the yellow line. Two instances where gold popped its head about its range, got rejected. On the THIRD try, it probed the upper range and POP, it broke out even higher.

So, do you see how this works? Ranges, boxes, channels, whatever you want to call them, occur,,,, all done by price. This time period is building energy, and the direction it breaks tells us where price is going. Notice also, the more an area is probed, the more likehood and probablity that that area of price gives in.

Also note how the pull backs here in gold are not so violent. They are really mild.

So, this constructive. Any trader who caught the range that was broken back even in 2/10 is setting on some very handsome profits.

In terms of price, the next trigger for gold is getting beyond the Friday high, of 1388. However, I would not be surprised to see some sort of pull back, seeing how gold has been ripping day after day.

So there you have it folks. That is how we stand. I really have enjoyed this, isn't it so FUN to see how PRICE tells us EVERYTHING. As each week, day, month go by, we are getting this pictured painted for us, a story of where price is at, and what it is attempting to do.

For sure, while the price is constructive, please be aware that at some point, resistance looms for both gold and silver. IF we dont see that tho, boy do we have a ripper, such as was illustrated by coffee. Just keep an open mind, and take everything level by level, range by range.

In case I forget anyones questions, let me know. If anyone needs further clarifiaction or still has questions, please free to let me know.

Finally, I want to mention, I have found it very intersting that are several strong names showing up among the miners. one such name is GOLD. This company is at/near 52 highs, a sign of a strong market leading gold company.