| Author |
 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,437 |
|
|
|
Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
http://www.bigcharts.com/quickchart...how=&time=20With the yield curve collapsing as some have pointed out https://confoundedinterest.wordpres...ed-with-qe1/it is interesting that the chart of the ten year treasury shows an interesting test of the whole 30+ year US treasury bond bull happening now. If we see the end of the bull, it could be good for gold. "Something else that affects gold's price trend is the DIFFERENCE between long-term and short-term interest rates (the yield-spread, or yield curve), with a rising yield-spread ('steepening' yield curve) being bullish for gold and a falling yield-spread (flattening yield curve) being bearish. It works this way because a rising trend in long-term interest rates relative to short-term interest rates generally indicates either falling market liquidity (associated with increasing risk aversion and a flight to safety) or rising inflation expectations, both of which are bullish for gold."--Steve Saville
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
as we talked this weekend, gold and silver are pushing on a shorter time frame above those levels.
Reference those levels on the charts from Saturday as your guide as to what it has to get over on a short term time frame and then secondary targets.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
so we have gold and silver breaking out today. Again to me what stands out different from other times is the price action that happened in the overnight futures session of december 1st...
now with both gold and silver breaking out in a shorter time frame, whats key is that the hold this break out. That going forward we just see some sort of light pull back or just sideways do noting action to allow gold and silver digest their gains.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
lets see if gold and silver can hold the gains they have today when the pits close. If they can close around here or higher, in a shorter time frame, it sets them both up to close above their respective ranges we talked about yesterday this weekend.
while both metals have a lot of work to put in, holding above and moving away from that december 1st overnight futures low is sooo key and important and thus far, they are doing it.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
The Federal Reserve managed to get themselves in a real pickle these days. The higher US dollar is like an interest rate hike to borrowers. They borrowed cheap bucks and now they gotta pay back in expensive ones (both the interest and principal). If the Fed throws Uncle Buck under the bus again (as many times since 1913), they lose whatever cred they have. If they let things go on as now, they might just find themselves with financial crisis no. 3 of this century. Pick you poison Ms. Yellen!! LOL
|
|
New Member
United States
11 Posts |
With the EU dealing with deflation....
|
|
Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
Well yeah the deflation bogeyman lives on. One could ask, in light of the fact that at the beginning of 2014 according to a BP survey oil demand world wide was well above supply, why did the price halve in the second half? Must of had some significant shrinkage in demand, indicating a slow down in the global economy.
Yet the stock/property/bond markets are priced for stability right now when many commodities including oil are indicating something different. Could be this year is a rendezvous with reality?
At any rate the belief in the "recovered" US economy and the Fed and the bullishness in the dollar could be tested soon if there is indeed a slowdown.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
What's "up" with gold & silver? We're quickly moving into the upper range of the 3 ranges of Yup's chart. If we crack through the 3rd range, are we on our way to an uptrend or is it too soon to tell?...  |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Its been interesting watching silver and gold thus far slowly take out each range.
We fast forward to today, and look where gold is at, climbing into the upper range already.
I wouldnt say that gold and silver have broken their downtrends yet, or officially. The price action of late is constructive, as each level has been taken out. WHat I am now looking for is two things, and I am looking at gold here-
1- Will gold in the coming week take out the 1255 area?
2- One thing I always like to see in an asset that is bottoming out is a run up in price, away from its lows if one is looking to buy, followed by a time period of chop or range bound trade. Preferably, it does this for several weeks, months,,, the longer it can make a base or range, the more blast off you get in whatever direction it goes. We havent gotten this yet... so that is another thing to look at.
3- there will be areas where gold and silver run into selling. THis in itself is not bad nor would be surprising.... price has memory, it makes for overhead supply. There will be pull backs and areas where sellers will show up. HOW gold handles these areas such as how little it gives back on the way up, also will tell us how strong the buyers are and the sellers.
So for now, not bad price action if you want higher prices, constructive price action. However, we need more time and we need to see how gold and silver deal with selling pressure to give us more clues as to how much this move can stick.
One final thought- supposing gold could take out 1255ish.... questions that can only be answered by time and price come up. One again would be,,, where and how strong will the pull back be? Also, where do we see gold make a range before moving out again?
Again, all these answers will be provided by the price action, and that means we need to be patient and allow time to work alongside price.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1804 Posts |
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
5857 Posts |
Investors are dumping oil and parking their money into gold and silver until the next phase, just a though.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I am not exactly sure and really the "why"... it is of no concern to me who is buying. However I'll say this, since my last update with the charts and levels we talked about, look at where are at now...
We talked about 1255 as being an area to crack, gold is now in striking distance of that and its in this upper range.
From here there are several scenarios.
1- Blasts past it (possible but not likely and even if it did, it would cut down on how sustainable the move would be.)
2- runs into this area and pulls back
3- comes into this area and just chops around (most ideal set up and what you would want to see) and then moves higher.
I have seen this type pattern over and over and over and OVER. in fact this week I am trading this similar pattern in many assets. Many times, they fail. Or they pull back, but its shallow. Other times, they pull back and they really pull back to where they drop out of several ranges and all the price action of advancing is lost.
So please keep in mind to not get your hopes up. Stay neutral, taking day by day. Be prepared for whatever happens. Gold and silver have a TON of work ahead of them, so this will take some time. Don't be surprised by pull backs either, rather than fret that they pulled back, observe how deep or shallow the moves back are. That gives clues.
This is how I would and am looking right now on a trade-
I take trades in just about anything so long as it sets up. For my time frame and the manner I trade, I do not see proper entry. I do know other traders with shorter time frames are already in the trade or have already traded gold and silver as they have moved out. For me, as a trend trader, I need to see some sort of price confirmation, in this case I would be looking for a break of a trend line or range.
So keeping that in mind, this is my playbook. I am looking at gold for starters, silver also but I want to keep this super simple. Seeing that I have in my book several set ups in stocks, I'd prefer myself a trade in GLD. In GLD I am looking at taking a line on a break of 120.50 Simple and then I would set a stop. Again thats how I trade, what has worked for me for years, all depending on what asset and method I am using for a particular trade.
SLV gets my attention breaking 17.09
These prices will fluctuate as prices and time goes on so keep that in mind. So for right now, I am just an observer and heck by the time they break out I might be with a full book. But I have been paying attention to them so as to help out fellow members and friends here.
For those who are adventurous, dont forget you can get max leverage with leveraged ETFs for gold and silver, those I enjoy trading, just remember they cut both ways.
My final thought is that we have seen gold and silver make counter trend moves over the past 3 years that they have been in their downtrends. We have seen some sharp rallies and then they fizzled. HOWEVER, with this latest rise in price, I find it so striking, so interesting the price action that happened on December 1st in the overnight futures market.
I have repeated this many times before in this thread because again, in my years of experience, important turning points in assets happened in this manner, with this sort of price action that we saw in the overnight futures session on December 1st. While nothing is certain in financial markets or trading, I do think the probabilities are a higher for a possible turn around for gold and silver. In the end, the market will tell us if we are correct or wrong on this view.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
It's interesting to follow various strategies. Yup indicates "I do think probabilities are higher for a possible turn around for gold and silver."
At this time, I just don't see the turnaround. I think some good news needs to be infused into the silver market as I think the notion of using less and less silver in solar panels had a pretty big impact on pricing.
I guess we all hope for different things and as a hobby, I hope for lower prices to allow for more enjoyable shopping.
Regardless, it is enjoyable to follow and I enjoy reading those who are willing to make guesses at where silver prices are headed. In the end, I would probably be just as accurate flipping a silver coin.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
"1- Will gold in the coming week take out the 1255 area?"
Like a knife through Swiss cheese.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
and here we have entered into the 1255 in gold with silver chugging along, that 17.82ish is key for silver, not there yet. with gold, on a short time frame, targets been hit. FYI, there will be some traders, based on their time frame, who will sell here, into this strength.
this is an interesting area and interesting time period-
does silver catch up and break that 17.82, following golds lead?
does gold get rejected here, if it does, how much of a pull back is there?
do we see a series of repeated days of continued buying for gold?
all are legitimate questions that arise and can only be answered by the market. give it time.
|
| |
Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,437 |
First Page
Previous Page
Posted 01/06/2015 1:44 pm
