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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2015  09:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
yup, I just shorted GLD @120.5

finger crossed.

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United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2015  09:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I would be a buyer of GLD at the 120.51 price point, set a stop and thats it. Either works or doesn't. Its all about your time frame in any case.
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MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2015  11:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the last few posts! It is exciting to follow.

I did think the other day some of us are tracking different things. Some are looking to trade paper gold and silver in the short term. This obviously focuses on charts, pricing bands, and volume. However, others are looking at silver price possibilities 30 years from now. In this instance, the question is at least in part, what will the industrial demand be in 30 years and what will the supplies look like.

Again, I appreciate reading your posts and watching what tomorrow brings.

Mahalo
Valued Member
Gothic's Avatar
United States
300 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2015  12:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Gothic to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Swiss National Bank gave central banker omnipotence a big hit today. Wonder if the ECB can buy up all those overpriced European sovereign bonds before the Euro itself goes down?
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Domain555's Avatar
United States
1804 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2015  6:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Domain555 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
On Jan 13 @ 2.10 PM I said buy

Today I say BUY
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2015  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
interesting day. We saw gold hit and settle above 1255. It also managed to close the session at the high of day, which is not necessarily a guarantee of anything but its a positive, you want to see buyers close out the day with the asset going out at the highs.

It is constructive what is happening. There is no guarantee however, no certainty of what happens next.

I'll say this tho, and I Am speaking from a traders viewpoint, as if I was in this very trade right now-

* positive that it closed at HOD
* positive that it broke 1255
* positive that it has moved away from and since the December 1st overnight futures lows, which is VERY important.


but if I was gold right now, I would be saying this-

*pull back is coming, when, I dont know but I'd have to say soon based on the price action

*how deep, how far will gold pull back?

* silver is lagging... does it catch up, or left behind?

These questions, I face all the time, in any asset I trade. I live with uncertainty EVERYDAY. I go into a trade, based only on patterns I recognize that have worked for me thousands of times, from reading the price action. I go into a trade realizing that it might not work, hence why I have a stop set. I get confirmation, it sets up, I take it, and manage the risk in case it does turn on it.

I am beholden by the market and I can only but follow what it says and does and trust both my stops and trailing stops.

Going forward, either gold puts a spectacular run higher or it starts a pull back. There are countless scenarios possible, and say I that because I have seen them all, I have experienced them all. What I do is NOT based on any sort of guess or luck. Let me repeat again: I have been in and seen this same pattern and price action thousands of times before.

Now, what I do is based on tried and true set ups, and then I allow the markets to do what they want with it. I have seen all kinds of outcomes.

Do I know exactly what happens tomorrow? NO, NEVER. I have no clue what happens tomorrow.

I suspect tho, based on the pattern, price action and , pricing, I put the higher probabilities on a pull back. A pull back wouldn't be a bad thing. Whats key is, if there is a pull back, how much does gold pull back. That gives me clues.

In any case, hitting and busting 1255 is constructive if you want to see some sort of floor put in.

As always, be patient, give it time, and manage your risk. Nothing AT ALL IS GUARANTEED in markets.
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Domain555's Avatar
United States
1804 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  03:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Domain555 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
On Jan 13-2015 @ 2.10 PM ~`~`~`I said buy

Jan 15-2015 @ 6:31 PM ~`~`~` I say BUY


Jan 16-2015 @ 2:26 AM ~`~`~` I say BUY.
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Liverpool's Avatar
Canada
576 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  08:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Liverpool to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I still think that the bottom has not been seen yet, just an opinion (I have been wrong before). More important than my opinion is a reminder about entry and exit costs.
Odds are most of the people reading this form are not buying at spot, dealers must get something to keep their lights on. You must pay Spot plus something. When you exit (sell) once again the dealer / broker wants to make a profit.
These two costs: getting in and out have to be considered if you are attempting to make any money buying P. metals. Good luck

I am not buying at this time other than if I find an oportunity to pick up something cool or interesting to the collector in me.
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BamaBlue's Avatar
United States
624 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  08:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BamaBlue to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Investing in ANYTHING is about patience. If you buy (gold, silver, pork belly stocks, etc) now and prices go up, you get your profits sooner. If you buy now and prices drop, you must wait longer to sell. No matter what happens, you'll do well if you remain calm and patient...
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United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
investing and trading are two different things. In a downtrend and if one is underwater in any given asset, no amount of patience is going to help that position out nor does patience help improve a faulty investment or trade.

going back to gold- nice follow through today exactly what you want to see in a trade.


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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  11:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Average down my short position of GLD @122.8

GLD is in a light volume short-squeeze, IMHO.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  12:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I like it, means no one believes in the rally AND averaging down on a trade that already is going the wrong way never works. :)

As I have said many times, December 1st overnight futures lows were the key clue to this move. The farther we push away from those lows, the better. The slower we go, even better if one is looking for higher prices.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  12:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
BTW, a nice pairing would be a portfolio that included the swiss franc. For those who want to learn more and would like to put money into the franc, research and educate yourself about the currency etf, FXF, an easy way to get direct exposure without having to have a futures contract.
Valued Member
Avshater22's Avatar
United States
337 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  5:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Avshater22 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Silvers almost up to $18 an ounce. I hope it doesn't go up to high because I'm enjoying the low prices right now as my funds for silver are somewhat limited. I'd rather see copper skyrocket right now lol. Anyways my grandfather told me the when you buy things such as silver or stocks you need to set a low and high price to sell to not completely lose everything if it bottoms out or to make a good profit if it begins to come back down. I'm not so much of a bullion collecter but due like to add a few ounces a month when I can. He told me this when I was in high school because a teacher told us if you buy stocks and they dip low to hold as the price can go up. He told me to tell her she was stupid which of course I didn't but still found it funny. My grandfather was did really well playing the stock market and even with silver and gold. His biggest regret was in the late 80's or so was stuck between investing in two companies one being rite aid and the other being Microsoft. He went with rite aid and while he still made a good profit it was no where near the money he would have made if he had went with microsoft. I probably wouldn't have to work had it been the latter lol. Anyways I have used most of the money techniques my grandfather shared with me before he passed and so far Ive been better off by following his guidelines.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2015  5:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What your grandfather was referring to was what we call a trailing stop. Everyone needs some sort of trailing stop, an exit point if you have profits.

One common thing people always say is "oh and to think I had a profit in that!" Well, it is simple and something one should always use even if buying silver coins to flip later on.

Know your time frame and have an exit strategy to avoid getting stuck or having remorse over lost profits.
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