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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
speaking of miners, gold miners specifically, the best name right now, as expressed by price action and where market money is going to is Randgold Resources LTD, at yearly highs, I know I would be a buyer of yearly highs as the trend is now starting so the move is just starting.
remember one wants to buy assets at yearly highs when the move starts and dump assets breaking down and hitting yearly lows.
Naturally, as one puts money to work, you have an exit plan as well, manage your risk and limit losses.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
Yup, I'm looking at GDX ($18) & GOLD ($80). Which is better positioned or are they apples and oranges currently?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Cascade from a technical viewpoint, the best name, price wise, is GOLD. It is now at 52 highs, so clear market leadership so thats where you want to be at, where the markets money is going. GDX works too but when you look at a breakdown of the names in it, most stocks arent at highs. GDX from a price stand point has broken out tho and its possible that several names in there could get to week 52 highs in time. but again, your biggest bang for the buck would be buying the market leader or depending on how you feel, you can do a little of both. I do see GDX has a weighting in ABX and NEM, two long time go to names in the market tho, again, the BEST in terms of price action, the leader without a doubt is GOLD. here is a link to the holdings and info on GDX from the fund that runs this ETF. http://www.vaneck.com/market-vector...dx/Holdings/years ago I owned NEM, ABX and GLD when gold was in an uptrend. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
Thanks yup  |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts |
With the prospect of negative interest rates being bandied about I imagine that some people are getting a little nervous about their savings being eroded and are making the move to PM's to try and conserve some of their wealth.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I think it is safe to say that with gold, US T-bills, and the Yen at yearly highs, the financial institutions and other market participants are parking their money in those assets.
Remember, yearly highs, 52 week highs, signal the start of an uptrend and the start of the move and turning the trend around, will take time. We also have clear signs of accumulation by the market. Where the market goes is where you want to be and you want to be right as it starts.
Markets are in downtrends, the US being one of the last to enter the yearly lows. I expect a bumpy ride down until the market has fully priced in future economic conditions.
I still think was pretty impressive how at first, the Bank of Japan smacked the yen down 2 weeks ago or so. In a few days, the market bought up the Yen and put it right back at yearly highs. Just goes to show you how market forces can do whatever they want and are always right, in this case the market is telling central banks that it is going to run its course for now and that what they have to say for now or planning wont have much of an impact.
A lot of talk has been circulating for a while now that the world is in the grips of deflation. I have no clue, dont know, dont care. However, in some cases, the general school of thought is, at least to economists, which I dont bother to listen to either, will say that in deflation, even gold doesn't work. But think about it, who are you going to believe? Price action or someones opinion? I will take price action any day over what someone says or what supposedly should work.
This is why I like markets so much, they are always right and they will tell you, by price action over time, what it wants to do.
Edited by yup7676
02/13/2016 12:20 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3843 Posts |
According to Reuter's buyers in India and China are mostly still on the sideline in this recent surge in gold and silver. Any thoughts anyone? As gold price soars, traditional India, China buyers show little love http://www.reuters.com/article/asia...hannel=11563 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5856 Posts |
Quote:
As gold price soars, traditional India, China buyers show little love I am guessing people needed the money for the past Chinese New Year last week? Not sure about India, perhaps now that price is started to rise, they will wait till it drops again before buying in? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Not to sound mean but I say who cares what China and India do? I could and can care less.
Gold was in for several years in a downtrend. Now it is at yearly highs, that puts it in a an uptrend. What China and india do means absolutely ZERO to me and I Am buyer at these levels.
In fact for me, as a trader, a proper entry at the next 52 highs with a stop would be a trade I take.
I dont need China nor india, in fact I dont anyone to tell me anything, except price action, to tell me you buy gold at yearly highs, the trend is now up and the downtrend has been broken. period. this is a repeat of a pattern I have seen before many times. Furthermore, in case I am WRONG, which I can be, I have a stop to get me out, my exit. All based on price action and not on what someone says.
the trend is now up at. I dont think it will be straight up because of overhead supply but it will be up unless the buyers back out but buyers do not tend to back off from buying assets at yearly highs. pretty simple stuff.
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Valued Member
Canada
312 Posts |
Got to excited on thursday and should have waited....Major dip Tonight......Uggghh
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@whitetail junkie
yea dont feel pressured to buy or feel like the "train is leaving".
there will be plenty of places to buy gold if this uptrend follows through. the coming days, weeks are going to give us better clues, especially as it pulls in.
I know it is hard for the vast majority to resist the urge to buy and to not feel like they are being left out, but the truth is there will be plenty of time to get in.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Well looks like the party is for gold. :(...
just kidding lol
Ok, I am off today so not really looking at much but I will say this just looking at futures market, I am not surprised.
Gold needs a breather, its been on a tear, hit yearly highs, bust that downtrend, what more would one want?
Going forward- lets see how it pulls back. Will this be by time or price. If it does dip, how deep is the dip?
I am sure most will be wondering, how do we know its moving up again? One easy way to know, in terms of price, is if gold can break its currently yearly high of 1263. Simple.
As I had mentioned last week, I suspect it will be a bumpy ride up, after all we do have a lot of overhead supply in terms of price, areas where sellers will step in to sell.
the good thing is tho, gold is now in an uptrend, it hit yearly highs, so the buyers did not come all the way here just to stop and not bring this higher.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Thanks for the updates, Yup! Glad to know gold is finally in an uptrend. What does silver need to do to break it's downtrend? Any charts are appreciated.  Do you see any use of the GSR scenario in terms of silver following gold? Or does the gold/silver correlation carry too much variance to bother analyzing it?  Thanks in advance!  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
Yup will probably say that silver needs to break it's yearly highs and that correlations are meaningless as price action is key.
Did I get it right yup?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3049 Posts |
Right now the GSR is very very appealing... my "magic" number is 80.. .which we almost hit... if we hit that number I would swap all my gold holdings for silver...
As yup has said gold right now is on an uptrend... if silver continues to lag while gold goes on an uptrend the GSR WILL hit 80!! That would be very exciting for me personally.
If you're into doing swaps.. with the current GSR... silver is looking very attractive, but as yup has mentioned once or twice on this thread he is motivated by price action and currently it's not there yet.
Historically:
1996 - Dec. GSR = 80
From the start to the end of the month of Dec. Price action (PA) was starting to increase on silver from $4.70 to $4.80. 6 months later the price of silver was still in the same range. By 1998 the GSR had dropped below 40 the price of silver was near $6.
2003 - May GSR = 82
Price of silver was 4.80... By March 2006 GSR had dropped below 45 while silver was increasing in price from $9 to just above $14.
Finally
Late 2008 the GSR shot up once again above 80. The price of silver recently dropped and was starting to gain some price action between the $10 to $11 range. By the start of 2011 the GSR once again dropped to 45 and continued to decline all the way to the low 30's by Feb. Early 2011 the price of silver.
If in each case you bought/swapped your gold and picked up silver... and in each case when the GSR dropped to 45 you sold the silver and bought gold.. you would be doing VERY well for yourself...
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Posted 02/12/2016 2:44 pm
