What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

Should be an interesting week, lets look at where we stand-






Last time we were focusing on when would gold make brand new 52 highs and move above 1263.90. It finally did break out above it, hitting another 52 high of 1269.50 on 3/3 and then had follow through on 3/4 hitting 11280.70.

Pretty good price action last week and it did pretty much what it should have done for a break out (b/o) at yearly highs, break above the previous 52 high and follow through the next day. So that is great constructive price action and price is doing what it should do.

Now here is the caution. The pattern on Friday is typical of where the buyers are going to take a break and a pull back is in the works. Notice how on Friday it didnt manage to close above any of the previous 52 highs. Instead it pulled back and settled lower and its back in the range.

This is nothing really to worry about at this point. A pull back should be expected as I have been saying. Again, watch how deep and how far. A pull back all the way to say 1191 would not be surprising and really shouldnt be something to fret at. It could pull even deeper from there, but again, no need to panic.

Pull backs within the context of an overall uptrend are common and should be expected. Some market participants will step in and put in orders in these areas so watch and see how deep and where we bounce.

Did you notice our gold mining proxy GOLD this week? it also made fresh 52 highs and then pulled back, reserving lower from its 52 high. Again, this is typical of where buyers are tired and a pull back is looming. Pretty normal stuff, nothing to see, run along sort of things in trading lol.

The key take away is this- Gold and gold miners remain in an uptrend and continue to hit 52 year highs. The uptrend isn't once, twice, etc and then just rolls over and straight down. We should also expect pull backs for now, its normal.

It doesn't mean that you panic nor should you assume "oh its pulling back, I am going to short it here because "X" gold miner is going back to 60 or "gold is done, it is going to drop hard all the way to 1100". The public tends to make this mistake more than traders. Usually in an uptrend, selling short means having a good idea of what range you are in and keep it tight and fast. As an example, anyone who tried to sell short GOLD (randgold resources) last week and thought it was dropping into the 70s got completely smashed and would have lost money. Dont be that person.

Don't believe gold miners are in an uptrend? Don't believe the price action. Then take note of the list of gold miners on the 52 high list on Friday, a pretty good list with some new names. This happens when institutional participants are buying-

Gold miners hitting 52 highs on Friday-

ABX
AU
GOLD
GSS
HMY
IAG
LSG
MUX
NEM
NG
RIC
SA
SBGL

The gold miners are a leading sector in the market right now. Notice how we started with a few names last week and as time went on, more and more names showed up. Again, the money is flowing to gold miners.

Silver




One word to describe silver: laggard. Coming into this week, it fell out of the range and went lower. Then 2/29 buyers showed up and pushed it back into the range.

Silver is still a laggard. Why? I have no clue, no idea. What I do know is tho that the buyers are in control, seeing that silver pushed back into the range. Yet, the buying isn't enough to make it jump out of the range, at least for now.. more later on that.

Key number for silver is breaking 15.99, when that gets broken, higher prices are coming. However, being range bound is not a bad thing, provided after time the range, if you want higher prices, gets broken higher.is The longer the range or base, the more explosive the move and IF it happens to the upside, it will be pretty big.

One very interesting development and one to keep an eye on is that now I am seeing silver miners starting to hit yearly highs as well. Sometimes, when we see both the metal and miners moving together gives us more clarity on the strength of buyers in the metals. In this case, just as the gold miners, now silver miners are hitting 52 highs.

The two silver miners hitting fresh 52 highs are GPL and PAAS. We will watch this list to see how it develops as times goes on. Perhaps silver could be getting ready to run higher and catch up gold.

So there you have it. We remain in an uptrend in gold while silver, does have buyers, it still hasnt caught up to gold.

One final note is this- for those of you who poo poo price action. We have discussed as far back as 1/26 about how in shorter time frames gold was making big moves and holding. The shorter term moves in price gave us clues that resulted in gold hitting yearly highs.

This is why we follow price action. It is important. To ignore price action and act like doesn't it matter is very unwise. Here in this thread we have spotted the move, WAY BEFORE the financial media started talking about it.As far back as 1/26 we were discussing together how gold was starting to move out. Lately, all we see are articles about why and how gold is being bought. However, that info is late because as we can see, gold started making its move much earlier than is being reported.

Ignore price action if you want, but you will ALWAYS be many steps behind the market.

We should see strong gains in pm's today guys. The European central banks have increased the negative interest rates to .4% up from .3% and are printing money like crazy loaning it away with very low interest rates in a play to spur investment and employment. They're grasping at straws. Mark my words, money will flow into pm's today

*I think* lol

just a couple of points-

Gold, still grinding and staying at the upper range. Interesting how it made a lower low, bounced off those lows and made a higher high. In the overnight futures session tonight, gold hit a 52 high. Keep this night in your head. It may mean something.... and it will be interesting to see how it acts tomorrow...

the 52 high list continues to feature both gold and silver miners.


Silver continues to lag and still in a range. Nothing really new lol

The REAL news today in was not China nor what the ECB said and did. The REAL item today was the EUROS reaction to what the ECB did and said.

Instead of the euro getting crushed yet again, it did the exact same thing as the Yen did when reacting to the Bank of Japan and their NIRP. The Euro caught everyone on the wrong foot and raced higher and stayed strong allll day.

The important key take away- financial markets do not trust and believe the ECB anymore. The ECB clearly has lost its authority to stimulate anymore.

This is the exact same price action as back on 1/29 when Japan and its CB went with their NIRP. AFter taking hard, the Yen reversed course, ran higher into yearly highs and has stayed still at yearly highs. The Central bank of Japan has lost its ability to influence markets for the time being.

Now it is the ECB's turn. The market is ignoring them.

Mark down todays date on your calendar as today is important and watching the Euro going forward. 1.07 on the euro will be important going forward.

I think going forward, again, this is going to be an interesting year for gold. I do not think it goes straight up, the price action seems like one of a grind, with pull backs, back to highs, etc.

As I had mentioned earlier this AM, after seeing gold hit 52 highs in the overnight session yesterday and then no follow through into the regular hours, I suspected a pull back and we got one.

Gold went out at the lows, typically this sort of price action lends itself to continuation. Counter that with the fact that we are in an uptrend, so there will be dip buyers.

however, even if gold should pull back and it say it goes lower, it doesn't mean the uptrend is done. It would be better to get some sort of time period where gold just doesn't do anything at all for a while, let it rest and digest the gains through time.

we'll see how all this plays out, there are many scenarios but anything is possible as we do not have a crystal ball.

The other interesting thing to note is that while gold went lower today, silver pretty much finished flat. PRetty interesting price action considering silver has been such a laggard. In some cases, the lagging assets in a category usually get hit hardest the most when the leader gets dragged down.

Next week is another week and I am sure it will be another interesting week for gold and silver. To repeat, gold remains in an uptrend.

Silver 16.05

I need me some yup to tell me this is meaningless in the interim and to wait and see how it shakes out in the weeks to come

My guess is its just scared money pulling out of the dollar. Let's see how it plays out and settles on Friday then how it moves going forward next week

Yeah, I'm not talking gold. Golf is still range bound which is good. The mild excitment is currently with silver though I'm worried about a fizzle. Yes, next week should paint a better picture