What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

Yup,

Thanks for your detailed response.

While I have enjoyed collecting silver, I can't imagine taking a large position in physical metals as opposed to paper holdings, at least for me. IMO, the cost of storage (e.g., deposit box) would be cost prohibitive. Also, I don't buy into the notion of, "if you don't hold it, you don't own it" that some talk about. For me, if I hold it, I usually just end up giving it away or losing it. In addition, the physical stuff for me is fun. I wouldn't want to have to depend on ebay or a local coin shop to sell a larger investment.

LOOK OUT BELOW!!!

Anybody buying this drop?

On the 14th silver spot was around 15.30, I got a 5 oz bar shipped for $80.15. Same bar today is $90. Not buying until premium comes down a bit.

Gold has taken a bit of a beating over the last couple of days as well.

just a quick late night update here as time is tight here.

gold and silver fell again, isn't that obvious? Now this isn't shouldn't be a surprise tho.

For starters, the price action as of late has been weak since 3/16 where gold had that major surge. Instead of ramping up for another attempt at 52 highs, gold started to make a set of lower highs and lower lows, all indicative, in a shorter time frame, of slowing momentum and lower prices. So with the gap down today, this was really not surprising at all.

So I would imagine Joe public is probably out and saying "I told you so! This move in gold was fake! What uptrend? Its going down!"

However, astute and observant followers of this thread who should by now realize price action is really all that matters, should by now know that we have talked at length why were were expecting a move as we have seen lately.

Remember- we have a TON of overhead supply. I repeat myself again- we have a TON of overhead supply. The "over head" supply we are referring to is NOT in the physical form but rather expressed by, yes, PRICE. We are hitting levels where sellers are going to encountered.

The ride up will not be smooth and easy as it was before. We are going to hit areas with turbulence. So just take a chill pill and watch the price. I have been saying this and I have been saying looking for a test of the lower end of the range. That is entirely possible. Additionally, retracing the 52 high b/o areas is not out of the realm and does NOT negate our uptrend.

Some uptrends are steady grind ups with very little pull backs. Others are the kind where a yearly high is made with a violent pull back, right back to where the asset originally made its first 52 high, run higher and then break down, right back to the original scene of the crime.

We are seeing this even with the gold miners. Hitting yearly highs, pulling back, hitting yearly highs, pulling back deeper... rinse and repeat.

So just be patient. No need to start out until we first see that lower end of the range in gold violated. Even then, patience must be exerted to watch how the buyers handle this selling.


Ok I have gone on too much so here is what you need to watch-

gold- a break of the LOD of today, 1215.40 brings us even lower prices. we need to see gold make a series of higher highs and higher lows to snap out of this move lower.


Silver- it really looks ugly compared to gold, but again, not surprising. It has been a laggard and only until last week did it break out (over 16) but then immediately failed. Its weakness is showing up as it should.

But again, its sitting on the lower end of the range now. It is possible it falls below the range as it did a few weeks ago. However, pay attention to price. Does silver recoup and bounce higher now that its on the lower end of the range?

For silver, watch and see if it breaks 15.24 and then see how it closes tomorrow.

@zack6736

Well, you will always get million people telling you the reasons "why" something went down or went up. In my world, those actively participating in the markets in various time frames, by the time the "why" is known, the important move has past us.

It is important then first pay attention to pay price because it alone ignores the opinions of others and is always right.

Calling and finding tops and bottoms, no mortal man can do it. No one sells at the exact top all the time, no one can always buy at the exact bottom all the time. That really happens to the insiders and really for the most part participants are to privy to those deals.

Which you bring up a great point that I wanted to talk about in this environment. I can imagine a lot of people are nervous with these recent week. How does one keep those nerves at bay?

I'll tell what we do.

Give you a typical example. Say I want to buy 30,000 shares of "XYZ" asset. It could be a stock, currencies, bond, etc. But lets say we are doing "shares". I say shares to keep this simple because we dont buy "shares" in commodities or bonds but I want to keep the lingo to a minimum so we zero on the important part of this example.

So typically what happens is this, if I am buying or selling. AGain we'll talk uptrend- I am looking at buying 30,000 of XYZ and it makes a 52 high.

lets say I am building a position to keep things super simple here. XYZ hits a 52 high at 100. that is the yearly high. First I do 10,000 at 100. Then I sit and watch. How does it react? A couple weeks go by and it back and fills, chops around. Then after 3 weeks, it hits say 101, a fresh yearly high again. This time I drop in 15,000. Now I am into it for 25,000 shares. I sit back and wait.


My first line already is in a profit. So I added to it. Now I watch and wait and see how this 2nd line does. Notice that now I am left with only 5,000 units to add. Lets say some more weeks go by with a lot of nothing, side ways chop, perhaps a re-test of the original b/o area. Then it rips higher and makes another fresh 52 high. This time it hits 102. Here is where I add my final line. I am done adding to my position.

So what did I illustrate here?

1- I dont buy all at once.

2- I add on the way up. I Always buy from a higher price than where I started to confirm the price action. new highs are my confirmation

3- As I get farther away from the initial move, I buy LESS.

Why did I give you this example? Because one can get nervous when its real capital put to use. It helps to manage emotions when you go in small to start. It also protects you in case disaster looms around the corner.

Always determine what you want to put in FIRST. Then pyramid on the way up, watching the price action.

WE call that sizing and positioning. IF you start by increments, you wont fret. You can clearly determine what the market is doing. If things go against you, at least you are only risking the initial amount.

Finally, by having a set limit of what you want to put in, you allow yourself a cushion and head start on making profits.

By controlling your size, your positioning, you can handle the emotions and nerves. And hey, if you are wrong and it doesn't work out, thats OK. No one can be 100% right all the time in markets, its IMPOSSIBLE.