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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,089 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Here's some interesting news from a seeking alpha article about seanality"..curious what the jeddi master YUP has to say about this please? "As gold stocks' spring rally soars in May, that is actually the best calendar month of the year for this sector seasonally! May saw average gold-stock gains of 6.9% between 2001 and 2012, exceeding the August, November, and September averages of 6.7%, 6.3%, and 4.8%. Gold stocks enjoy heavy buying in May before their summer doldrums kick in, the seasonal lull in gold-demand spikes in June and July." =============== http://seekingalpha.com/article/396...ely-outsized |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
"So it's very important for investors and speculators alike looking to ride the gold-driven spring gold-stock rally to deploy well before May's surge. And the best time seasonally to add new gold-stock positions is during March's consolidation. That's the seasonal slump before the spring surge. And the setup for this year's gold and therefore gold-stock spring rallies is exceptionally bullish, the best witnessed in many years."
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@ilikeikes
well, that will never happen. The miners already are very active in the futures market, this is where they hedge their production and also hedge in various currencies. So there will never be another futures market solely for miners, not too mention that it would be burdensome to have a separate clearing house for just the miners. So its impractical as well. The miners would never support that either.
As far as seasonality. We do pay attention to it in the sense that we are aware of what seasonality factors are present. However, PRICE ACTION always trumps seasonality. If it was that easy to just say, "hey November is great for soybeans, lets buy them" then we would all be making money left and right. The fact is while we remain aware of seasonality, if the price action goes contrary to the seasonal trend, you always go with the price action.
I know for a fact that sometimes seasonality doesn't work the way it should. Sometimes they follow the seasonal trend and sometimes they dont. As always, consider price action as the real determining factor in how one positions themselves.
The article from Seeking Alpha is in some ways late. The reason I say that is because we already discussed many weeks ago which gold miners and silver mining stocks were hitting 52 highs and that was a perfect spot to be buying those stocks. Remember we want to start at the beginning of the move and as close as possible to the start of the move so that we dont have to worry about pull backs and sharp violent moves. The farther away we buy from the start of the move the more risk we carry.. something we want to avoid.
@Zack6736
Glad to be of help. Just remember that there are points where you want to buy and then decide on how much you will buy and then just let it rest. Thats how you will get the most out of your dollars and at the same time limit risk in case things dont pan out.
I appreciate everyone's kind words. Trading is very difficult. It can be done but it takes immense time and patience to first read the tape and recognize patterns. You also have to understand that out of the vast majority of trades taken, most of them will be WRONG even when you do follow price action. A trader wont be right 100% of the time. At best, if you are doing 40% right, you are doing great.
The whole objective is to follow price, limit risk, find the trends and go with the flow of the market. Even then, there are many other unknowns that can happen.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Are we still in a gold uptrend? I'm not so consident anymore. It sees like the Bears are still strong, and I'm not just talking about overhead supply.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
got it..thanks for the input! Since 52 week highs reached, and lowered now, finding the sweet spot to get back in will take some good ole work and watching things carefully. I tend to get "tricked" by a swift rises, which creates the "I'm missing the profits" emotions. Now, I will be patient this time..NOT everything happens in just 1 day..watch, read, and stay the course. A great opportunity here to really hone my investing toolbox.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@MontanaCMR
Yes we are, we remain in an uptrend. Remember, we have a ton of overhead supply, in terms of price, so we are hitting areas where sellers are present.
I have said repeatedly that this will not be a smooth ride. I often repeat - "price has memory". There are always areas in any asset where sellers sell and buyers buy. This is how it has been for as long as markets have been open.
The other factor we are facing is that money is rotating away for now from gold, gold miners etc. The funds and institutions have put in their positions and arent buying for now. This doesn't mean that they are walking away, just for now thats all we will see. Based on how our markets have been moving lately, I suspect the markets go much higher and gold goes lower. AGain, that doesn't kill the uptrend.
A lot of market leading stocks go into lulls, time periods where they drift lower and do nothing for weeks, months.. and then later on, guess what, after a big cut down and months of nothing, slowly they appear back at 52 highs.
Again, the markets are dynamic. Money is constantly flowing, rotation is present as different sectors find new fresh buying and in time they also go into a lull. AGain, this is nothing new.
Finally, there is no such thing as a "bear" or "bull". These terms were first started to be used in the 1800s by the financial journalists of their day and it stuck. At the end of the day tho they mean nothing when trading markets.
It just makes things seem exciting and whips up emotional sentiment, when at the end of day, no one cares what they are, they just want to make money. As we say, there is no bull or bear, just being on the right side of the market is what matters. The term "bear" or "bull" is something I never use because again, means nothing.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Just a few notes for today-
Gold- if one is looking for this selling pressure to end, gold has to first stop making lower lows. It needs to reverse with a set of higher highs and higher lows first and then have follow through. Until we see that, gold goes lower, simple as that.
for today, gold already broke the Friday low, so lower we go. I suspect, based on price, we are going much lower. Again, no surprise really. Lets see if we get into the 1190s area for now. Supposing that gets breached lets wait and see how gold reacts around that area.
Silver- the low of day last Thursday was 15.10 and we see that hasnt been breached today. Also, notice that silver made a higher high over the Thursday close. So here in silver we have a set of higher highs and higher lows. Now the real interesting thing is seeing if silver and put in a follow through day with another set of higher highs and higher lows.
As it stands now, silver hit and dipped below the lower end of the range and for now managed to get to the lower end of the range without going lower.... for now. we'll see how strong the buyers are this week. Should we see silver break lower from this lower range, the probabilities for lower prices are high.
Finally, minter FNV received a downgrade even as it has been pulling back, a double whammy. Notice a theme here yet? Gold mining stocks hit yearly highs and downgrades come in. Another set of yearly highs are made and once again, downgrades are passed out on the gold miners.
The gold miners seem like a battle ground of sorts between sellers and buyers. There is definitely accumulation and buying, but they continue to get sold off and downgraded.
Expect a super bumpy ride here. Do you remember how one can handle this sort of environment? By staying small in size and not adding on the way down as the miners pull in. Remember too that if dont feel comfortable, you can always sell and just stay out until the neat area to buy.
Remember, we have a TON of over head supply in gold and gold miners and the same for silver. It will be a GRIND full of sharp violent moves so if possible avoid getting desperate and worried.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
I do a lot of reading to try and get a bigger picture of physical bullion situation, and, the "Paper Gold" issues, While not one entity makes 100% calls, nobody ever will, or, they would be the richest person on earth...I have a few sites I like for forecasts like FXEMPIRE.com, SAFEHAVEN.com(Clive Maund is a very good writer), and more can share if you want. THIS article, by John Hathaway, of Toqueville Assets, is a MUST read for gold bugs, puts synthetic paper gold in perspective, supply issues, and, since Silver is so closely tied to gold, Silver bugs will enjoy this remarkable work on the Big Picture of Bullion these days: http://tocqueville.com/insights/pap...a-alchemistsThe more I read, the better insight I get, remembering not 1 person is right or wrong..only the spot price tells the truth! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@ilikeikes
Yea I honestly do not read a heck of a whole lot in terms of anything financial, especially like financial media news, theres a few things I read but when I get down to trading, the only guide, the only thing I study, is price.
Price never lies, it never hides what it wants to do.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
So, I have been reading up on candlestick graphs, and found a good website that has a free one on investing.com. Was at work watching this graph in real time, wondering where it would go next. There was a tug of war going on it seemed, I figured it would go down, came home looked online again before going to bed and it had some buyers buying but really hadn't made a lot of upward motion. Then this afternoon when I woke and checked the graph, gold has gained like $20 and silver .20. It appears the volume of buyers are going up and the wicks all are pointing upward on silver. How can one tell on a candlestick graph when a big run up is building? Would the candlesticks be long instead of the short ones I'm seeing now? There was a tall one at 0800 and 1100 this morning.
Thanks for any insight into the candlestick graph anyone can give. Also, there is a lot of green sticks on todays graph, with very little red. Green is the buyers, red is the sellers, right? Not much red in todays graph to be selling to all the green sticks. Did I miss the boat and get left standing on the shore waving goodbye?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@zack6736
Not too sure I am getting all you are saying. It sounds however, from how you describe it that you were watching a feed for the gold market but it was in the futures market, as that runs 24 hours. where the price action really matters is when London passes the baton to us.
Candle sticks, to keep it simple, each one is based on each tick in whatever you are watching and each has a Low of day, high of day and the close on the day. Each candle stick means something. The wicks represent again, certain types of price action. These tick by ticks are usually used by intra-day traders. So unless you are intra-day trading, reading these candles and watching them everyday wont do too much good.
There are various forms to plot the daily price action. I personally use the HLC bars.
At the end of the day, all indicators move on price action so they will only show what price is doing, no indicators and tell us what price WILL do.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Looking at Nadaq for after hours trading numbers, to see the profit-taking, under Newmont Mining(NEM), someone bought 836,100 shares at $26.95/share...when I see things like this, it makes my mind spin.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
yup7676 Just commented on gold as silver seems to follow and the silver is what I'm interested in buying. No, not really into trading, just want to buy physical silver to hang onto, but want the best bang for my buck so looking for a low point to purchase more. HLC bar graph? Will have to do a search and locate and do some reading up on how to read that type.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@zack
I would suggest a few books to get, just to get a feel for things. One is an easy read from over 70 years ago. This book is mandatory reading on trading desks all over the world. This book set out the template for which many traders use to this day including myself.
How To Trade In Stocks by Jesse Livermore
another book I use and the absolute best for TA that also goes back
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards Magee Bassetti
Getting to know where to buy and sell short/sell is pretty straight forward and simple but you need to know what kind of time frame you operate in. I take a guess and say you want to keep for the long term and keep as simple as possible.
There are a TON of free resources on the internet that can help you understand the various time frames and how to buy properly. I have suggested this site a couple days ago - stocktwits.com I have no vested interest in this site, have no connection nor any affiliation. It is however, from what I have seen legit and I wish I had this sort of material back before I started. I found out about this place by way of the one paper I read, the Financial Times. I have referred family and friends to this site when they ask me all sorts of questions that arise such as yours.
lots of great free info in the forms of articles for investors and traders alike. I can guarantee you that financial advisers and the like are not fond of these free social media finance sites.
Check out the first book I mentioned tho, its simple, straight forward. A lot of trading is simple and repetitive and most of trading is about patience and discipline.
I am sure its going to be very overwhelming. You will drift to one thing and then wonder what about this. So just take your time, take it all in.
Thats why tho I started this thread. I started this so that I could help folks understand in the most simplest terms that assets all move based on price. The whole purpose of this thread was that while I was still here in the hobby I would share what I am doing every single day, I mean why not? Heck I am knee deep everyday following all markets, trading a wide range of assets, I might as well share whats going on with gold and silver.
When I started this thread we were still in a downtrend. We saw a LOT of fake outs, counter trend moves, I kept saying to not buy and we saw silver and gold going down. I felt important to share the knowledge and what the readers choose to do, well thats up to them. However, I can only relate to you all what the price does, not what I think it will do or should do. I can certainly offer the different scenarios that could be expected... but the whole point of this thread is to educate and to follow the price action as our supreme guide, not what guide ourselves by opinions or just mere whims of emotions.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
Thanks for the reading recommendation yup. I did check out stocktwits.com, at first glance was confusing. Then upon revisiting discovered a lot of reading within links contained in comments. I read one analysis that suggested silver could bottom out between $11-$12/oz. Not sure I'd have the courage to watch it dip that low before jumping in around $14.50. Also read a link picked up there about the 'Elliott Wave Principle'. Read the basics about that, then tried to recognize the 5 step up, a-b-c correction down. I maybe could see that in the graph but it's difficult to pick out that pattern specifically as there is a lot of upward and downward movement. I got up this afternoon and see the price is down, my inexperienced judgement based on the graph and what I've read thus far tells me it's going lower. I'm going to wait till the middle of April and look for a price range of $14.50-$14.75 to jump in with what I've got set aside for silver. In the meantime I've got some studying to do in my down time at work. :-) I was wanting to ask you what you thought of the Elliott Wave Principle.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,089 |
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Posted 03/27/2016 11:36 am
