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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,081 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Bought some PM fund earlier today during the drop. With my luck. The wheels will now fall off and prices will drop.
I guess if it does, I'll buy that drop too. this is a lot of fun, but might turn out to be an expensive lesson. If we are in an uptrend, it should be fine. I'm just not sure about an uptrend IMO, the downtrend could start again tomorrow driving silver down to 12.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
For myself, $12 would be great. But do you really think that is possible?
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@zack6736
I couldnt tell you much about Elliot Wave Theory as I dont use it myself. I am sure it has its usefulness but as with any other indicator, it is all based on price action, it cant make any sort of predictions that will make it 100% accurate.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
ok I whipped up some charts real quick, lets run down whats happening Gold-  We still are going by this range of 1263.90 at the top. We are using roughly the 1190s as our lower end of the range. Gold did pretty much what it should have done- made early highs and then follow through with more yearly highs. The yearly highs stands at 1287.80. However after that, gold has drifted lower. Quite frankly, gold has been very sloppy. For all intent purposes tho, gold remains locked in the current range I mentioned above. Either its going to break this range and then follow the direction it breaks it or continues this sloppy range until it decides to move out. This is going to take time, a LOT of time. It will also require a TON of patience. You cannot rush the market, it will show its hand eventually. Currently, this the state of financial markets. We are seeing rapid moves in one direction and then reversing in the other direction. As an example, we are seeing indices moving higher. Underneath the surface, we are seeing a lot of churn. Some stocks run up to an important area and then stall. Then after stalling, they run back up. Rinse and repeat. So keep this in mind, a lot of assets are also locked, chopping around in a range. Gold remains in an up trend despite this. I realize there is a lot of trepidation especially if one doesn't realize all that is going on. I repeat myself again- the buyers did not buy gold all the way up to yearly highs just to let the down trend start again.  Silver SLOPPY. Breaking and getting into 16 was very constructive price action but besides that, silver just has been all over the board. Like gold, it needs a LOT of time before we can see what it wants to do. Remember, it has not move into yearly highs like gold. It has been a big laggard. The most recent attempt to break the range was positive for higher prices but then it stalled out. Once again, more time is needed to see what happens next. This will be a tough grind for those wanting higher prices. What can you do manage this? 1- I suggest staying small. Dont put all your money to work at once. The less you have in, the more you can control your emotions. 2- Be patient. Look for proper entry points. Let us take silver as an example. If I was going to look for another place to buy silver and follow price, then the next buy point for my time frame would be to wait until it hit 16.18 If it doesn't get there, I wait and do nothing at all. 3- Remember, all commodities are violent movers and move FAST in either direction. Sure it feels good watching it go higher but what about now? Now its moving higher. Can you stomach these moves? If you are having trouble with these moves I would suggest not buying and just holding what you have for now. It is not like the train is going to leave without you.So there you have it my friends. We remain in an up trend for gold. Silver remains a laggard and is sloppy at best. I will repeat myself until I am blue in the face: this is going to take TIME to resolve itself. Be prepared for sharp deep moves in this up trend. We can certainly pull back.. but it would NOT imply that the up trend is gold is done. It takes an AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY to get a trend going in either direction and it just doesn't stop once it gets going. Think of a trend in price like those huge ocean bound container ships. The captain cannot stop those huge ships on a dime. No, he must start a process to turn around that massive ship. The same with trends. Look at gold. The down trend went on for what, 4 years? Then to snap out of it, it took an immense amount of repeated buying to get it get into a yearly up trend. Wish I could say more but thats about it. It is always the same thing. Identify the direction of the trend. Find a proper entry. Wait for that proper entry. Enter with a small position. Allow some time and the price to show you a reason to either add again or wait more. Know where you get off in case things dont work out. Rinse and repeat. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
While I get your notion the market decides market moves, do you have a range for how long the current uptrend could last? My hope is that potentially it could stay in place for years. My hope is not to have to buy and sell every few months, but buy and hold for years until the yupster indicates the uptrend is over.
Also, it's interesting you mention the psychology of investing. I was happy to buy more PM mutual fund yesterday even though today would have been the day to buy as it broke through prior levels. I guess there is part of me that wants to buy the drop rather than the follow-through.
Regardless, thanks to all that have been posting in this thread.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
I hate days like this..spot up for both gold and silver, yet, most of my mining stocks are down..the scalpers are ruining the day..tommorow is another day!
CG
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
So would you add more mining stocks on a day like this?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@MontanaCMR
Sorry but I have no answer to that, I cannot predict the future. Boy that would make it super easy if we knew huh. The only thing I can say to help you understand in the most simplest terms of when gold runs back into a downtrend is when gold starts hitting the yearly LOWS. Right now that would be
So long as its near the yearly highs, its ok. However the minute gold hits the yearly lows, the miners hit yearly lows, there is a great spot, without any doubt, to jump off the miners.
How long things run, no one knows. Did anyone know or could have guessed how strong gold was going to run from 400s, all the way to almost 1900s? Nope
@ilikeikes
Today is a scratch day, isn't going to mean a single thing. Reason I say that is because it is the last day of the month so its going to be choppy and funds will be making changes, additions etc.
The miners remain in up trends. Just they are not going any where soon or fast. Between the chop in the price of gold and constant down grades to the sector, this is what you would expect. Some names tho, if you are paying close attention to the price action and where the moves started, bounce and find buyers right where they broke out.
For the most part tho, the gold miners remain locked in a range, just like gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3348 Posts |
Control charts. They make more sense when you're trying to control something, and even then aren't always very useful. They're the backbone of Six Sigma and Statistical Process Control. But that doesn't mean they are very useful unless you understand the process and what perturbs it.
I worked at one industrial operation that filled their main conference rooms with control charts. The problem was that the charts didn't show any perturbations, and the critical trends were pegged to the bottom of their ranges, usually based on minimum allowed quality to reduce costs. After a year of this the charts all disappeared suddenly one day. There had been no change in productivity, reductions in costs, or increase in profits. What had started out with the mantra of "We're out of control!" ended with the not too surprising discovery that the process was controlled very tightly and that improving it would require substantial capital investment, or an inexpensive process shift based on tremendous insight (kaizen event).
I'm failing to see the point of control charting precious metals prices. The perturbations are there, but the factors that cause them are not understood and/or beyond the ability of any bystander to control. Paying attention to large macro trends and taking a long position when favorable seems wiser and far less stressful. Looking for a pattern of deviations from the average requires guts, a lot of money....and a paid-up cemetary plot.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Looking at VGPMX, would you add more today, wait, or avoid this fund because it's already had a nice run?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@MontanaCMR
If I was in your shoes, I would dump it. That mutual fund is not allowing you to capture the entire benefits of the gold miners as they moved. In fact, over a year, its lagging the individual miners AND the gold mining ETFS, so its preventing you from capturing the bigger gains.
It has a few good names, AEM, GOLD, etc.
I dont like mutual funds. I prefer owning out right the names or an ETF.
I would just dump it, or avoid it and look at buying individual names or an ETF.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Forgot is was the last day of the month. Duh. With the Dollar slammed down so hard, under "normal" circumstances, a good price movement up would have been had, IMHO. I'm no expert, but, methinks tommorow, if the dollar keeps dropping, or, stays range-bound, back to small gains in spot up, miners will readjust accordingly. Nibbling today, while prices suppressed.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Pat of this is a retirement fund, so I'm limited to mutual funds and cannot buy individual funds. I'll double check on the ones you sent, just to make sure.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@MontanaCMR oh that sucks :/ I dont deal with mutual funds, you have to wait every quarter to see where they are putting the money, you have to wait until the EOD to know where it closes etc. So ok, see tho if you can buy GDX or any sort of gold mining ETF. Or individual names by chance,,, I did a quick search tho, man I havent done this in AGES lol for mutual funds but found these, I like these based on price and much more superior than what you have in terms of price. they are in this article. The two based on price that look good are, in this order- FGADX FSAGX BGEIX here read this article - http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/206...-gold-shinesI dunno tho if you can access them through your fund. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
.. and while gold slops around and chops around... someone is buying gold miners. pushing them to yearly highs..
KGC and RIC making 52 highs today. Smaller gold names, which I dont prefer but there is clear buying, enough of them to put them at yearly highs is my point.
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Posted 03/30/2016 8:48 pm
