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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,074 |
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
How does the last day of the month affect the price of PM?
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@zack
It doesn't. What we were referring too was end of the month, end of Q1 in fact.
So what happens, at the end of the month, funds close out positions, add to positions trim, etc. That accounts for choppy sideways action on these days. As they will be sending forms to their investors, they want to say "at the end of Q1 we had these names etc etc or we had this but trimmed it etc etc".
IT was mentioned that gold and silver were up but miners down. Probably because some funds were selling out, some where buying in.
Gold and silver are commodities and as such, they only move based on the law of supply and demand. There is no need to wonder why, how, where, when etc. Just supply and demand.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
@yup Thank you. Another question. I have read that in the futures, contracts will be due in April. Will we see this action in the first two weeks of April or are they spread out throughout the month? I studied the graph you posted, and what I saw was a possible drop in Silver, but as you have stated it's choppy and it's gone up. Have been reading articles on the stocktwits.com site you recommended about an inverse head & shoulders and how we may be looking at the development of the right shoulder and if so a possibility of $14.62. So for now, as you have stated I'm practicing patience. In the meantime I will sit back and watch, take a chill pill and wait. Still need to pick up one of the books you recommended for reading during my down time at work. Thank you,
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@zack
well futures are a bit different and without getting long winded and confusing lets just say that it all depends on whos doing what with the contracts. How they expire, roll over, be due, etc will depend on who took those contracts out and on what date. So we really cant say exactly when all that happens. Some might expire immiedately come April, others no, etc.
Yea just take your time. I a lot of things are going to sound like gibberish and never ever going to make sense. Thats OK. I know I never went for a CMT exam, I dont care about candle stick patterns, Bollinger Bands, moving averages etc.
Thats not to say they dont have their uses. Its just that all these indicators become too much. At the end of the day, the less you use the better AND keep in mind, every single indicator is some how tied to the price action. None of them can predict what happens.
So I was taught "less is more". Keep it simple. Have an edge and refine it. For me, I excel at reading patterns, buying and selling short 52 highs/52 lows and buying/selling break of trend lines. I know my time frame. Furthermore, this type of trading fits my psychology and emotional make up.
I prefer and have no issue at all buying stocks at all time time highs. I dont have trouble buying stocks at yearly highs. Other traders are not comfortable buying a stock at say 350 that has moved for a year steady. To me, I have no problem doing that.
So when it comes to investing, trading, one should try and develop an edge that also suits the emotions best while ALWAYS paying heed to price action.
Another good book that has been referred to me by fellow traders but I havent looked at but I always hear positive things about is Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas, its a good read for investors and traders alike.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Thanks, Yup. I like the look of FSAGX as they hold some bullion.
The other looks pretty similar to the Vanguard, but you can probably better distinguish.
Do you work for a major investment firm and take clients?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
I was able to tweak my TD Ameritrade watch list to show me what I want now, including 52 week highs-lows, and more...easy!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Here's a micro gold OTC stock, at 52 week high today(off by a whisker), for anybody(like me), who enjoys putting funds into inexpensive miners. This company, Intergra Gold Corp I found out from one of those mining articles where they interview a large name in the business, and, ask for some recommended companies that they have bought for the long haul. I'm in for the long haul. What I like about these small stocks is the ability to own 5,000, 10,000 + shares for not much cashola, and, when they go up even a penny or 2, or 3. 10,000 shares would be $3,900...$3,900 into Rangold would get me 42.94 shares. If everybody has a good day, and go up, say 2%, I make $77.29 on #3,900 in GOLD, yet, $200 on the same amount in Integra. I doubled my money in 7 weeks, with micro silver miner Silvercrest(SVCMF) by doing this...25,000 shares bought at an average of just 0.21/share..sold when it hit 0.40
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3348 Posts |
I found this 3 year old article very interesting. https://www.caseyresearch.com/artic...e-disconnectAt the time, a 400T sale triggered a $200/oz drop in gold, to the $1350 range. The analyst provides a fascinating history but what has happened since then is more interesting. -Gold has continued to fall. I'm glad I didn't take the analyst's buy advice. -There is no explanation for the drop. Several large players are suggested. But anonymity plays large. -The most solid advice is that this is not a market for beginners to dabble in. The contracts are written to the brokers advantage in every regard. 90% of futures investors will lose money.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@MontanaCMR
Based on price, the three in that article, when I looked at them, look much better than the Vanguard, which seems to be really lagging. I wouldnt buy anymore of that Vanguard. Remember too, if you are dip buying, to space out how much you want to put in. Manage your risk always.
@ilikeikes
The best place, tho most brokerages offer screeners but you can also use a site such as finviz.com and make custom screeners for US traded miners, both gold and silver.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Big ugly gap down for gold and silver. Gap downs tend to bring more selling.
Gold remains in the range tho at this rate and with the gap down today I would not be surprised next week brings a deluge of selling.
Silver officially broke out of the range as well. We have seen it dip below tho and be bought back up.
At this stage, thats all we can say. Probabilities are high that next week brings lower prices. We will be watching to see if silver goes lower and the back into the range OR does it break even lower here. Gold we want to see what happens, does it march to the end of the range and then break down lower?
Next week should be pretty interesting.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3348 Posts |
@Montana FGADX, FSAGX and BGEIX look like dead cats based on the 5 year trends. If you want price action you'll get your bounces, but be prepared to get out in a hurry. I chased my former company's stock down figuring it couldn't go any lower and ended up with ten cents on the dollar in bankruptcy.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Thanks thq. I'll probably just stick with the original and add a bit more today given the sell off.
I don't mind holding for the next 10-25 years, and actually like having a bit of diversification.
One problem I will readily admit. I enjoy PM as a hobby, and probably shouldn't mix investing and hobby. However, I suppose PM is potentially a good spot to hold some assets in case the stock market tanks in the next 10 years.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3348 Posts |
@Montana, acting as an executor affected my outlook. First, the precious metals I liquidated were worth more than all the cars and guns combined, and far easier to dispose of. Was any money made on this bunch of USguvmint proof sets? Probably, but only because gold was up so much over 15-20 years. Short term they would have been big losers.
Second, the energy royalty trusts I liquidated were very profitable. But their value today is only 10-20% of what it was in 2014, due to the energy price collapse no one foresaw. From this I learned a lesson about the difference between holding a capital asset vs holding a leveraged asset. It would have been bad enough if we had waited and watched all the savings evaporate on unit shares that were physically held (literally - they were all paper certificates). It would have been a total catastrophe if those shares had been leveraged, as is gold is when you buy futures. Not just an 80% loss of capital, but bankruptcy of the estate to pay for the margin calls.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Great conversations today..thanks to all the comments. Personally, I have physical bullion in 3 vaults..gold, silver, platinum and palladium. I own my own "Basket" of mining stocks, which, I am confident, will do well over time, as long as I stay the course, and just hold..no reason to panic on swings..their going to happen, that's a given. The overall economic macro-envoronment is pro bullion for safe haven, as the global economies seem to be at the end of the road for paper currencies and high debt that crushes any hope for revenue aquisition and growth. I do not dabble in paper etfs..I don't do day trading with them, don't want to guess 3 day trends for scalping..it's a losing game for me, and, I would never buy/hold paper bullion long term, unless it was backed by sprott, who are legit. I have read too many nasty things about the "fine print" about GLD..basically, it's uninsured from acts of God and terrorism...poof..gone...and, if someone bought a few gazillion shares, it would freeze up the system, causing stops of buying..and, potentially, a freeze on withdrawals, if the fund collapsed. When I read over and over "The world's biggest Ponzi scheme", it tends to get my attention. Right now, LOTS of buying in the mining stocks...y screens are showing a lot of green, even with the drops today..a great sign for stability in the foundation.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,074 |