What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

I'll just say this-

the market environment, looking at whats making 52 highs or getting close to them, is full of EMs. I say risk on. (Has word gotten out to institutions that no Fed rates are going to happen?) Also, more and more oil related names near stock leadership.

My brain box, upstairs, based on experience, previous memory, if this continues to run up, reminds me of back when commodities were flying high, including gold, silver, EMs, oil names were in play and risk was on.

We'll see but things are looking like "risk is on", (China hotter than a pistol for weeks now) with a combo of EMs, oil, gold, etc.

EMs = emerging markets

I'll tell you what, I'm SOOO sick of this rate hike boogeyman and it's market manipulations that cause hair trigger reactions in which folks with any money at all, lose 3-4k in a day.

Low interest rate policy is played out and I'm sick of not being able to make any money. Low interest rates are very good if you're looking to borrow money, but not worth a hoot if you've got 500k invested somewhere looking to make money.

If they raise the rates, it would only be a VERY small amount.

Absolutely, I'm in the markets for the long haul. At 41, I figure I'm going to ride this horse for 20 more years.

I've got a really good buddy of mine that put $350k into the stock market in the early 2000s. By the time 2007/2008 rolled around, he had a tidy 700k. I saw the finance statement from Smith-Barney. Of course we all know what happened in the summer/fall of 2008, the stock markets were losing 300 points per day in daily trading. My buddy lost half of his 700k and was back to his original 350k and lost his nerve, he called his agent and pulled out. I can't say that I blame him, he was taking hit after hit and there was no way of knowing how much worse it would get. If he had kept his money in the market, it would've recovered and he would more than likely have over a million dollars right now.

I'm going to try and ride it for the next 20 years. It's a bumpy ride...but I've got plenty of silver and gold as a hedge, and adding! Good Luck!

time for some charts- very simple charts on a monthly time frame with no indicators to keep things clean and simple, no clutter, LESS is more in charts and trading.

Gold





Continues range bound since 6/24 and even tho we briefly broke the range in early September, gold managed to get right back into the range. I have to say that was pretty impressive seeing that the sideways action from 6/24 would have created enough energy to drag gold much lower once it broke the range and yet it didnt.

We have seen gold pull back this week, putting in a set of lower highs and lower lows since mid week. The question becomes: is gold next week going to test that lower end of the range once again? Please refer to the yellow arrow on the chart which indicates were we stand for the time being.



Silver





Silver has a little different look than gold, in fact it looks much weaker than gold. As we had talked a few weeks back, on 8/19 silver broke the range that it had held going back to 7/5. Note the break on the chart where the green arrow is.

Eventually, silver found support in the 18.60s and managed to get back into the previous range for a brief amount of time before it once again fell out of the range (please note the red arrow).

For next week, unless silver can get back into its previous range (between the aqua blue lines, the lower end that silver needs to enter back into is the 19.60s) there is the probability that it will want to retest the lower end of the 18.60s where it found support and bounced. Should next week find silver probing those 18.60s, the probabilities increase that 18.60 gets broken lower.


Both and silver and gold remain in up trends. Within these up trends, especially ones with overhead supply, you have to count on resistance, levels where sellers will be present. AFter all, after a 4 year downtrend, you have to count on sellers being present.

I know everyone is focused on the Fed and what they do, rate hike or not. All that should be considered noise and ignored. Better to pay attention to price action. Perhaps they do hike but gold and silver continue to move higher. Perhaps they dont and silver and gold do nothing at all. Point is- concentrate on what price action for the next move instead of guessing what happens.

been super busy as back to the normal routine here of trading however will say this

gold- still sitting on the lower end of the range, again. We have been range bound in gold since 7/6/16.. and still in an uptrend, but short term time frame, just range bound. Make or break time again, does it break lower or bounce from here... watch and see

silver- also range bound, albeit, on the lower end of a second range. Again, still in an up trend but trapped in a range. Just as with gold, make or break time. does this lower end hold or does it give way?

In any case, which ever way we move, its going to be explosive, the next move, whether its up or down. This range is building a base and the move will be again, explosive.

lots of mining charts look busted, dragged down with gold and silver, short term they look ulgy. However, as I always tell you, its about time frame. Longer term, tho, they are in up trends.

Some are coming into areas where it is make or break time. Again, the move will be explosive here as well.

Mining stocks are tough to hold because of these violent swings. Hence why I stress you want to buy right and sit tight, to handle these violent swings like we are saying.

Gun to my head, I think we start to see these mining stocks start to move away from the lower end of the range, along with gold and silver. We remain in an up trend and so the probabilities remain for higher prices. We just remain tho, in a time period where these stocks, the mining stocks are really doing nada.

Next week should be fun.

@ terry8835, regarding PM liquidation challenge: I know that not all members on here have this luxury. However, if any of you live near a large population of Asian (where they have Gold/Jewelry store) then you can sell your physical gold/silver for spot (or even a bit higher, especially if they are Swiss gold) ON ANY WEEKDAYS. Their spread (btw buy & sell) is usually w/in $50/oz for gold.

The same can be done by selling to major online dealers such as APMEX etc, despite taking extra time to mail and risk of loosing your PM in the mail.