What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

current price action looks like death, its ugly lol

Both the PMs and miners look like they want to make another leg lower.

What will be interesting in the coming week and weeks, to see if silver and gold can re-test the lows of the week and either bounce OR slice through them.

Do you buy the dip? You can, the uptrend can be forgiving, tho this has proven to be an ugggggly uptrend. But if you nibbled, if thats your thing, I guess you could do it, just dont be surprised that prices go lower in the mean time.

this market is all over the place tho and very few assets are moving up, something that has been going on for a while.

In case I had mentioned it, October is a crappy month for gold btw, here we see the seasonality is confirmed by price action.

@ilikeikes

yea the amount of fakes is concerning. I have thought, after reading a lot of this stuff, that I dont want to buy anything from a pawn shop or older coins because its so easy to get a fake.

I think if you are stacking, probably best to buy going forward from reputable dealers to avoid getting burned. heck a dealer could even by mistake get blind sided.

This is such a weird time...I feel like I'm underwater, or something..get the feeling SOMETHING is about to happen...this sideways range-bound is torture..even though Mr. YUP does not like "noise" induced observations/predictions, I am afraid this election crud DOES, or WILL have some effect on charts..which way, I have NO idea...just kinda want it OVER with, so, on with life while the clock tics.

I've decided to change my strategies for buying paper versus physical. For me, I have decided to do what a lot of you recommend regarding physical which is to only buy when you can lower your dollar cost average. I know this violates some trading principles, but it makes sense to me if you are buying and not planning on selling, perhaps ever.

For paper, the only sound advice I have found is based on Elliot Wave trading, but defer to the recommendations of Gary Wagner (a favorite of Kitco). His videos on Fridays are free.

I was stunned when he made a call late last week on gold. Now I'm stunned and happy.

@YUP...what # would you like to see GDX, and, or, GDXJ back to, to clarify a decent upside has "restarted"...seems this is many-an-investor's gauge for jumping in, or, back in to bullion buys.
Thanks
Calvin

@ilikeikes

well, gold and silver are STILL in uptends and are FAR from violating their uptrends.

I would go off of gold myself to see where we are getting traction. however, if we look at GDX, right now, we can see for the past 2 weeks a range has developed. Low end of 22.50s and a high of 24s and it does appear that today the break out happened, higher and held. Now we need to see follow through.

I think that IF this range can be broken higher and holds on GDX, this could give us the first clues that gold is trying to get going.

This will be a process tho, as gold will once again have to go through price levels from the previous months. For this reason, I really feel gold and silver need a lot of time before they get going, as in weeks, months. If GDX was really going to get going, it would be right now heading towards the 31 level, which it is not.

So right now, the element of time is key here. Again, I really think we need a lot of time to go by before gold and silver get going again. Gold and silver are in up trends and just need more time. Remember, assets can correct through time besides price, which we have seen gold and silver correct.


Another thing I want to add is current market structure is not great, the market conditions are really crappy. 90% of break outs in all assets across the board do not hold, whether an asset breaks out higher or lower. We are in a market full of indecision. Only a handful of assets really are holding up and strong. Look at stocks such as ARLP, IGT, TTEK,... those are a few of the strongest stocks out there, defying whats happening. Look at coffee, it broke out to yearly highs today but the break out did not hold. Look at oil, it has been strong and very close to breaking out higher but it continues to run into resistance.

Look at the US Long bond, it broke down big last week and has been breaking down but then finds support. I can go and and on and on where assets break down or there is no follow through.

Gold and silver are NOT immune to this. FOr this reason, the only real solution to what happens next is time. You do have the dollar breaking out right now but give it some time, it too will break down. You have the Yen, in an uptrend but starting to break down.

So we have a TON of market indecision. We are not going anywhere fast in any asset. Why? I really dont care and what I always do in these situations I sit on my thumbs and patiently wait, no matter how long, I Do not form any opinions, I just sit and wait and observe the tape.

I feel with gold and silver, they just need a LOT of time before we get clarity on the next move.

so we talked last night about GDX, broke out yesterday of the range it was in and now with follow through today.

It is still very early today tho, so watch and see IF this move holds today.

Breaking the range doesn't mean its off to the races again, this tho, could be, little by little, the range breaks higher on which gold and silver build on to get moving again higher.

You might recall earlier in the year, as gold and silver broke to their yearly highs, they were forming ranges, trading sideways and then moving out higher. This gradual progression is what gets the overall trend running again.

Watch and see if this same pattern of price action continues in the coming weeks and months.

@ilikeikes

you know thats a hard question for me to say, as from a technical stand point, for my personal time frame, I am not a dip buyer per se, so I dont see any reason to buy.

This doesn't mean dip buying is wrong, as I have stated, in an uptrend, after some vicious selling, buying these extreme dips is very forgiving because of the uptrend.

So if we look at it from that context, and there are institutions and funds that have been buying down here, I would do this-

1- Add some miner ETFs that give you exposure to several names. I personally like GOEX and SIL.

2- we are in earnings season. See which miners act best on their earnings. I will add here tho, a rising tide lifts all boats and again, in this sense, the uptrend will be for the most part be forgiving even on the worst performing miners and believe me, there will be some miners that even in an uptrend will under perform, hence why you want to add some overall ETF exposure.

That said, watch earnings and the reactions. I like this names, some of which are the old standby go to names in the market-

PAAS
SLW
SSRI
RGLD
ABX
NEM

I might also add, right now we dont see them, but any miners you see that start to once again hit week 52 highs, zero in on those, those are your leaders in the sector.

Finally, if you are playing this whole PM up trend, you must add to this some SLV and GLD. By having a mix of individual miner names, ETFs and the PM ETFs, you cover all the bases.

Again, you could buy down here, if you nibble, buy in small positions. I personally am not fond of dip buying but I do know and it is done in an uptrend. I personally buy at the start of the trend and then hold and watch and decide where I want to either sit or take profits.