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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2013  1:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Cey

yes ... tho that would depend on everyones time frame as well thats why I said the day traders are having a lot of fun today with this action... and around these areas, even if we go off of SLV we do see areas of possible price support. However, as with everything, these are subject to change.
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GoThunder's Avatar
United States
830 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2013  1:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GoThunder to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm not seeing an outside day last week, but today is a nice one.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2013  6:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting reversal day in gold and silver today. Was this IT for the selling? at this stage we don't know, its too early.

What caused it? Well, to me, this sort of action is common and typical, especially when yearly lows are hit or very close to being touched. In one scenario, a yearly low being triggered brings even more lower prices which continue in that path. Today, we saw silver come close, in fact, overnight, the futures market had silver probing this 20 area. However, coming into the morning, things changed. Silver was not as depressed, nor gold.

So whats the take away at this point. Tomorrow and the coming days will be key, that this area holds. Above where silver stands is a lot of price memory which will now act as resistance. Furthermore, it will once again have to enter that gap, fill it, go above it and stay above it. This also applies to gold.

I tend to agree with other traders who are calling this is nothing but a short squeeze, especially since we are still very much in a downtrend. Furthermore, the price action in both silver and gold as of late remind me of other similar assets I have traded where they are essentially broken, in a no mans land,, where there are points of rises, followed by depressed price action, and vice a versa. To a certain extent it becomes the domain and playground of shorter time frame traders.

Let's see what tomorrow brings us, if the buyers can keep the momentum. One final thing I wanted to mentioned and forgot and am putting this in for the edit, but the volume on SLV wasnt too shabby for today...... Thats another thing to watch and see if it sticks.

One more edit here- Something to chew on. sometimes, and this is going off experience such as trading the SPYs and Qs via the futures market, a sort of behavior I have seen is this- a sort of bottom is occurs in an asset where the futures market over night experiences a type of flush, some might refer to it as a "crash", THEN when the cash markets open up and regular hours trading commences, things gradually aren't as low, as in the case of silver and gold, as expected, and there after, the prices commence rise. If you notice, in the futures market, we hit our 20 area in fact, which is key, a round number,, and we didn't see in this case, a break below it.

so keep this date and price range on your calenders,,, that 20 was hit and a bounce occurred.

I remember one instance, as an example, when the damage from the japan earthquake and other events were happening, negatively impacting the markets and the futures markets hit big lows, the overnight session was deep in the red, and coming into the morning, things were calmer and started an accent from there.

Perhaps we have some sort of floor,,, and again, keep in mind, filling those gaps from 4/12/13 are super key to determining just how far this can get.
Edited by yup7676
05/20/2013 7:16 pm
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Ceylon62's Avatar
United States
1285 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2013  9:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ceylon62 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Go thunder,
May 13th was an outside day dependant upon what you saw.

Today was another confirm of the outside day.

Fwiw, I went long on the 14th (un hedged) for a trade and lets see how this plays out.
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Northerncoins's Avatar
Canada
2019 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2013  05:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Northerncoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Could this be the first domino for paper gold and silver?




HKMEx voluntarily surrenders automated trading services




Quote:
Hong Kong, 18 May 2013

The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) announces today it has decided to voluntarily surrender the authorisation to provide automated trading services ("ATS") granted by the Securities and Futures Commission ("the SFC"). With immediate effect, no new orders may be placed and all open positions will be financially settled at the settlement price determined by HKMEx and its designated clearinghouse.

The voluntary surrender decision was made to enable the Exchange to re-align its strategy with the new industry environment since its trading revenues have not been sufficient to support operating expenses and, as a result, its inability to meet the required regulatory financial conditions.

While trading on the Exchange will discontinue, HKMEx as an organisation will continue to operate with its existing staff, and will focus on developing new products including renminbi-denominated precious and base metals contracts that will better meet customer needs. It also intends to re-apply at an appropriate time for an ATS authorization to launch these products with stronger and more effective market maker programs.

"The favourable conditions under which HKMEx was founded have not changed. Global commodity demand continues to shift towards Asia as the region undergoes sustained growth, presenting great opportunities that we will continue to exploit," said Barry Cheung, Chairman of HKMEx. "Our priorities now are to protect members' interests by ensuring effective closing of open positions while strengthening our shareholding base and developing new products that play to our distinctive strengths."

In closing out the open positions, the Exchange has developed a plan in consultation with the SFC to ensure the process is orderly and that investors are well informed of the matter. The Exchange will disseminate settlement prices to its members the morning of next Monday, 20 May 2013.

Ends --







http://www.commodities-now.com/news....htmlhttp://




Quote:
When the Rothchild's HKMEx was launched in 2011, much of the metals community assumed that the COMEX & LBMA, were they not to outright default, would fade into irrelevance with the advent of the new Asian metals exchange.
Two years to the day after the exchange's launch however, in perhaps the most glaring evidence of physical gold & silver shortage to date, the HKMEx has announced it will voluntarily cease trading, and all open positions will be closed out and financially (cash) settled on Monday 5/20!




http://silverdoctors.com/hkmex-to-c.../#more-26786
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starbuxinvestor's Avatar
United Kingdom
616 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2013  08:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add starbuxinvestor to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Having only dealt with physical PMs for about 2 years now I am amazed at the ferver some people have on certain idiosyncratic events and how they prove or disapproves things of a much larger scope. Perhaps it has something to do with the smaller nature of the maarket. But whatever it is it definitely ignites passion.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2013  10:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well here we are,,, and not what you want to see if you want higher prices. Both silver and gold should have had follow through, instead they failed to do so. As I stated tho yesterday on 5.20, yesterday was no doubt nothing but a short squeeze and we are just in for some volatile times and plenty of ups and downs, a day traders paradise I might add.

Nevertheless, gold and silver continue to be a strong downtrend, nothing has changed. Look to see if yesterdays lows are broken on our proxies, SLV and GLD.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2013  12:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
5/21/13 -Its interesting to note that intraday thus far, we have the same price action as always, a flush lower, then a retracement of the day lows and days of continued chop.

This is typical price behavior and patterns exhibited by broken assets. why is that? because there is no institutional money being put to work here.

At this stage, if you want to be active in buying physical PMs, palladium is your best bet as it is the strongest of the group.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2013  11:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Late night update but anyways here we go

lets turn to our proxies, SLV and GLD-

Some are calling today as a double bottom for gold and silver... meaning that the price attempted to go lower and gave up some gains but did not make a lower low today and held.

Perhaps but no matter what, gold and silver are still in a downtrend and have a lot of work ahead if they are to get back to where they were.

Both SLV and GLD made lower highs today, but no lower lows. More of the same going forward. Just an aimless drift and chop going no where, they remain broken.

What would convince me of higher prices is the same scenario I have been repeating. That scenario is having gold and silver march towards the gap, filling the gap, chopping around and basing, holding and then moving out.

I believe we have some Fed announcement tomorrow, so perhaps that gets us going again, in either direction. I still continue to be leaning towards looking for more areas to sell silver and gold short, tho if everyone is leaning short, this may take a while to play out as well.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/22/2013  08:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good morning gang!

Ok, today should be an interesting day for the PMs. At 2:00 PM EST we have the FOMC minutes from their meeting and this AM we have Mr B speaks also this AM at 10 EST.

Keep in mind that what matters is NOT what he says, but rather, the REACTION to his words, by the PM market... is of importance and will give us clues as to how the market will position itself going forward.

As I mentioned yesterday, some traders are in the camp that this double bottomed, I dont think so, I am on the side that silver and gold are guility until proven innocent, that is to say, they continue locked in a downtrend with no where to go but down still. We'll see.

more later on in the day
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/22/2013  10:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
update- Ben's testimony has been released this AM and the markets reaction across the board, including the long bond,, has been favorable. Seeing the long bond respond well to this is very interesting.

we;ll see what happens later with the FOMC meetings at 2 EST
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/22/2013  10:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
HAHA! wow,, talk about whipsaw,,, the long bond and PMs losing steam. clearly a tug of war, and the day is not over yet.....

Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/22/2013  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
gggggggggggrrrrrrr my mistake wrong thread! this is where I wanted this to be at-

My apologies for this 3rd post- I am trying to do multiple things here but I wanted to share this as much as in real time as I can-

Please look up a chart of GLD, lets go to that as our proxy. Note the the HIGH of the day for 4/15 was 136.75. Do you see what happened today, just now, GLD ran into today, the HOD of 136.77, it attempted today a second time to run into this gap and was stopped hard by 2 pennies!

This tells us we have a resistance at this price and gold cannot not move higher until this area is breached. So again, the gap from 4/15 is CRITICAL and super important, until gold enters it, fills it and holds, it is going now where and we have our confirmation that the sellers are in control. The same goes for silver, it must fill that gap from 4/15. Until this gap is filled and held, any moves going forward should be considered head fakes to the upside.
Pillar of the Community
United States
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 Posted 05/22/2013  1:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Heads up! FOMC meeting minutes in 10 minutes,,, pay attention to how gold and silver react to what is said... notice that gold and silver are at the LOD, see if they push them lower or reverse on these minutes.
Pillar of the Community
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 Posted 05/22/2013  3:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As we get nearer to the end of the day, what I find interesting in regards to gold and silver is how they will not crack this area yet and go lower. Despite the market mood, despite the reversal this AM, nothing seems to budge gold and silver lower from their current levels right now.
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