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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Pillar of the Community
Doug58s's Avatar
United States
899 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  3:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Doug58s to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
yup - I have a problem with the market sitting all on the edge of their collective seats wondering about QE as they spend money buying and selling stocks to new highs. Then they hear QE might be ending and the market drops like a rock... that tells me even they know they are trading on false money hopes and don't want to be caught holding when everything starts dropping.

There is no real data to support the growth in the stock market to these levels. Jobs data is up this month down next, unemployment is holding at 7.6% - while earnings are going ok this quarter - there is no earth shattering across the board record profits. Housing starts are ok - but then again considering where they are coming back from that doesn't mean a heck of a lot.

There is nothing to support this continue climb in stocks...
Pillar of the Community
starbuxinvestor's Avatar
United Kingdom
616 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  4:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add starbuxinvestor to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Doug - Interesting to hear your views but I see things differently.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  5:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Doug

I don't see it as the market wondering about QE. Market already knows and expects QE will be trimmed going forward. Furthermore a reduction of QE means things are getting better. The markets have accepted that higher rates will be here in the future.

I would have to flat out disagree with you tho regarding the economy. Things are getting better, more people are going back to work, housing is recovering after being damaged badly, housing values are going up and yes it will take time but we have already see the worst and now the healing has started and is well on its way.

There are a ton of factors going in the right way. The market continue to make all time highs because things are getting better and it is the best place to park money for the best returns.

There is absolutely no reason to be negative or feel that things aren't getting better.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  5:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I have a problem with the market sitting all on the edge of their collective seats wondering about QE as they spend money buying and selling stocks to new highs. Then they hear QE might be ending and the market drops like a rock... that tells me even they know they are trading on false money hopes and don't want to be caught holding when everything starts dropping.


Theres a little more to it than that but theres some truth to that.

Some of it is just uncertainty about what happens when it ends. The quickest way to get money out of the market is uncertainty. People pull it and sit on the sides and if they see everythings fine get back in, they just dont want to be left holding the bill if there is a drop.

Some companies will suffer from the end, but the strong companies shouldnt really be affected. Maybe a bump in the road more than a revaluing.

People are just more cautious though after the last big crash which they should be. Some probably see it as a money making opportunity as well. If people get nervous and start to pull out you can sell and buy back later at a lower price keeping the profit.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  5:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
And to me,,, all this nervous sentiment, all the negativity, the more people I see saying they don't believe the market at all time highs is good to see, it means the market will continue to grind higher.

One thing about the equities markets is they always do what people least expect them to do. At this point, I agree with BB, a lot of folks got burned, people are afraid of higher grinding markets, but that's a good thing.

Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  11:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I love to read the headlines on Kitco.

Every time Gold goes up $3 or $4 dollars you get something like; "Gold solidly up on xyz"

When Gold sheds $15 to $20 dollars you get something like todays "Gold holding near steady on profit taking".

Eight years of advanced mathamatics wasted! All I had to do was go to any Gold Bug site to learn that a $2 increase is "significant" and a $20 decrease is "insignificant". Who knew?
Pillar of the Community
coinwatch's Avatar
United States
808 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  1:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Simply looking at the markets and the numbers allows me to accept that the US economy is getting better, but it's difficult for me to sustain such believe on an intellectual level. The new market wisdom says that debt and deficits really don't matter in our new economy so long as the psychology of the marketplace agrees. That's a HUGE leap of faith for someone like me, but I'm getting there. You have to play the economy you're handed, not the economy you wished you had.

Yup's lessons on "price action" are helping me quite a bit. It's a strategy that makes some sense when nothing else does.
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tpg22's Avatar
United States
919 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  1:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tpg22 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I hope all the pros are correct. I'm stacking cash and ready for $6 silver and $300 gold I keep reading about in posts here. Looking forward to starting a $5, $10 and $20 gold coin collection. That will be fun.
Pillar of the Community
Doug58s's Avatar
United States
899 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  1:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Doug58s to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
jmkendall... that is basic government style math. A small tax increase equates to hundreds if not thousands of dollars per person per year. A huge tax cut equates to $26 per person per year...
Valued Member
miggs's Avatar
Canada
281 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  8:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add miggs to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

-There is no real data to support the growth in the stock market to these levels....
-There is nothing to support this continued climb in stocks



What goes up must come down.
And the DJ is over due for a correction but the next time will be
fast, furious and very very ugly. You can thank deregulation for that.
If any of the 3 bubbles burst which are the stock market,derivatives
or the US dollar, my question will be
can you say hyper inflationary depression?
Bye bye pension funds, hello gold and silver
This is NOT a potshot to you yup, I'm on the outside looking in, so to speak.
It's not about being negative or pessimistic but more about being realist. The writing is on the wall for all to see...
Pillar of the Community
trout1105's Avatar
Australia
7096 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  9:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trout1105 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It's not about being negative or pessimistic but more about being realist. The writing is on the wall for all to see...

See what, I can't see anything


What-Happens-To-Gold-And-Silver-Next?-Look-Out-Below?
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  9:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
eekkkkk getting behind here, lets jump into what happened yesterday first

1- Did you notice how AFTER Monday and the gap up, Tues rolled around and the market in gold held that gap and filled the 6/20 gap. Notice the price 130.38 was the LOD (low of day) on 6/19, the gap got filled. Not too shabby and I am sure there were a ton of traders helping squeeze that up. So not bad, it filled the gap on Tues, filled it even.

Nevertheless, the buying volume was and has been pathetic and to make anything really stick you want to see strong volume, many times 4-5 times the average volume. However, GLD closed Tues with higher high and higher low. Paying attention to these dailey price movements gives you a great clue as to whats going on, you'll notice as gold has closed the gap it was making a continued series of higher highs and higher lows, pushing upwards. Remember that this also works in reverse, lower highs and lower lows day after day means more weakness. If you can remember this, it will help you when trying to determine whats going on in the intermediate short term time frame and they do add up over the long term as well.

TW, this type pattern manifests itself in currencies, futures, commodities, bonds etc etc etc etc ET AL.

2- Silver once again continues to lag and like last time, is weaker. Tues we had silver lagging gold. Looking at our proxy-

SLV- lower high, lower low

So again, we had gold pushing higher into the gap, and silver not really following through after Tues price action. IF this sounds familiar, it should be. This was happening last time back months ago.

Next post will cover today-
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  10:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ok lets get into the action for today, 7/24.

To begin with, gold was immediately rejected as it filled the gap. Silver continued to slide lower continuing its price action from yesterday.

GLD- lower high, lower low- turned away from the gap, complete reversal, closing near the days low.

SLV- lower high, lower low- moving away from the gap and never really came close to filling the gap despite entering it.

I will note also that both the long bond AND gold were moving lower today in tandem. Safe havens they no longer are. It will be interesting to see how much lower these go and if they start a new range lower or do they rush down to the yearly lows. I think we see a continued narrow chop lower, bouncing around aimlessly for a while.

Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  10:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@coinwatch- Glad to hear you are learning and seeing how markets work. Once you master it, is a very powerful instrument and you can stay ahead and keep up with markets, across all asset classes. You will be able to get a handle on the direction, if any, in any sort of asset.

As humans, it is easy to allow oneself to be convinced and stick to ones opinion as being truth and not veering from it. HOWEVER, markets do not work this way. No one is powerful enough to harness and go against what the markets wish to do.

If the markets wish to go higher, they will go higher, if they want to go lower, they will go lower. No one, I repeat, no one that thinks that because they "feel markets are too high" or "feel markets cannot go higher because" or "feels markets aren't going lower" anyone who allows themselves to be led by this sort of thinking will not fair well in the markets, whether they be gold, stocks or bonds.

As a trader, I realize I must follow the direction of price as it is the only "truth" out there. Everything else is noise, whether it be from financial media or even other fellow traders. I draw my conclusions only from price and volume and I keep my opinions to myself and thats it.

The markets continue to defy anyone and everyone who keeps saying they are going up on "nothing". Traders and the general public fall into this trap. This is also the same tune one will hear when markets fall and fall and fall, everyone comes out and says, "oh they cant go lower". .. and they do go lower. However, if one would only pay attention to price, then there would be no noise as to what is really happening.

@Miggs

No offense taken at all. As far as inflation, deflation, stagnation.... I really don't worry about it or care, I;ll be looking always just to see whats either going up or down with a trend I can ride.

My whole point and objective is to identify the trends. Right now, markets are strong because the US is humming along and things are getting better. We are no where even close to panic or fear and we have already experienced the worst. Things will never be perfect, but they never have. To cling to assertions that things are not good and getting better however is the incorrect view and those who dig in will be in the minority and left behind by the economic expansion. The trend is up in the markets until otherwise proven that the uptrend is over.

Gold and silver continue in their downtrend and have a lot of work in front of them before they can return to their up trends.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2013  10:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
one final item, I think everyone on this thread needs to read this article so that they can really understand how the gold market works.... and understand it from a NON conspiracy angle and view.

Its an easy to understand article that puts things simple as possible and will help you understand more about COMEX.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/co...ks-072420136
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