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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Pillar of the Community
larsdog's Avatar
United States
593 Posts
 Posted 07/18/2013  6:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add larsdog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't buy gold or silver per se, but the price influences what coins I go after. When silver was up, I was shopping for post 1968 Mint and Proof Sets, and expensive silver coins for my Type Set that aren't influenced by the price of silver, like Seated Liberty and Trade dollars, and 20c pieces.

Now that silver is down I am looking to complete my pre-1965 Mint Sets and have already upgraded my Morgan dollar, Walking Liberty half, and Columbus Commemorative half. Those are much more sensitive to the price of silver.

From here, if silver drops below $15 I will consider buying lower grade collections of pre-1965 Roosevelt dimes, Washington quarters, and Franklin halves simply as "junk silver" and try to finish them out with junk grade coins for fun. If silver shoots up over $25, I will start looking for that Liberty Seated w/Motto dollar I need to finish my Type Set.

I don't know what the market will do, but I know what I will do based on how the market behaves.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/18/2013  7:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Lars

Yea I been noticing some great deals across the board on like proof silver and gold coins.

I saw on ebay a set of 2013 proof eagles I forget the frac sizes now but when I totaled the final auction versus what the Mint wanted was like 15% less so not too shabby.

SO yes, I think you nibble and plug wholes in your collection. Bullion, if you own some already, I would say don't add because you safety net.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/18/2013  11:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Another day goes by, and its another day of choppy trade. About all we saw today was a rather weak bounce from gold and silver. Lets go right into the proxies

SLV- lower high, lower low

GLD- lower high, higher low

This could go on for while, it could break lower. At this stage, if we are looking for a break soon of lower prices, we need to start seeing prices dribble lower each day until they break. As of now, we dont see it.

I dont think we see it break immediately lower. Rather, as I emphasis, everything takes time and gold and silver will be no different.

For now, major purchases should be avoided, especially bullion coins. Don't be a sucker and think prices are not going lower, resist the urge. In fact, I think once again, buy gold over silver and buy coins that give you some cushion as prices go lower, such as buying proof coins.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2013  09:32 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Take a look folks, gold going into the 6/20 gap.

more later

Valued Member
miggs's Avatar
Canada
281 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2013  11:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add miggs to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
While western investors were dumping paper gold, Asia and central banks were gobbling up physical fast.
Comex registered gold is now below 30 tonnes.Premiums on the physical are high in China. The wholesale
gold lending rate has gone up. Could the scarcity in gold indicate $1180 was the ultimate bottom?
wassup yup?
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2013  12:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good morning Miggs and happy Monday to all.

Well, I really dont pay attention to COMEX reports for the following reasons that I know to be truth.

1- the data is not presented as it should be by those disseminating it. 2- Every time I hear talk about how much "physical buying" there is and it isn't reflected in the price, I know that someone is simply talking it up. 3- which I again circle back to price, price is truth, price is king, price doesn't lie, price is always right. Price is saying gold and silver are in still in strong downtrends.

To me I just see this as a trading bounce, a squeeze and nothing more. Furthermore, getting prices to get stable never happen fast and certainly not in the manner we are seeing. Therefore, this is nothing more but a bounce that many traders are making money on. If you had gold and silver and you wanted to sell a bit more, this is the week to do it.

Remember, tops and bottoms, no one can call them. Also, its a process in getting some sort of floor or top in place, it just doesn't happen 1-2-3.

more later
Pillar of the Community
Demarco Bishopp's Avatar
United Kingdom
548 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2013  5:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Demarco Bishopp to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Not much to get excited about yet. Silver is still bumping along at around $20 which is where it's been for about 4 weeks now. Gold has recovered more but I remember the same thing happened in April before the downtrend resumed in earnest.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2013  11:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Lets take a look at how things are going here. First off, lets rewind and go to Friday as I believe I left off looking at what happened that day.

GLD- higher high, higher low

SLV- higher high, higher low

So we see both held their gains from the previous day and slowly been ramping higher.

Look at today, both silver and gold experienced a gap up. Furthermore, we are seeing them push higher into that 6/20 gap.

GLD- gap up, higher high, higher low

SLV- gap up, higher high, higher low.

Now, lets see how it handles filling this gap. It is possible it can close it. Its possible it closes the gap and holds above it. So the bottom is in right?

My friends, despite this rally that is happening, which many traders are making coin on, it still doesn't change the fact that gold and silver continue to be in downtrends. Nothing has changed. Allow me to review key points here-

A- the volume as this has run up is very small and is not the type exhibited by funds coming in. For the technical picture to change it would be good to see some very heavy volume days, that would indicate strong hands are buying, IE funds, banks, institutional investors.

B. In a downtrend, sharp snap back rallies happen, many times blowing the accounts or inflicting losses on those who either have been selling short as latecomers or have yet to cover their positions. These short sellers need to buy back their positions, pushing up the price. That I believe is what we are seeing right now.

C- Again, I repeat, this is a process, it will take time. A couple of weeks is NOT going to reverse a downtrend over night. Furthermore, even IF gold and silver were to stop hitting yearly lows, they are still broken assets that will have to prove that they are ready to climb in value.

D- all that selling that has happened will now be resistance in terms of price. What am I saying? That price has memory and those levels in price that were crashed on the way below now become "walls" to prevent the price from going higher and that will take time and heavy, steady buying to overcome. Again, this sort of thing takes time.

So becareful in thinking that the worst is over and that now prices are ready to climb higher. Be selective in what you buy coin wise and stick to high quality coins. Finally, do NOT be in a hurry to rush out and buy silver and gold. The train is NOT leaving the station, avoid the pressure from dealers that insist prices will never be this low or that you will not be able to buy at these prices ever again.

I have been receiving and flooded with emails from the online dealers I have purchased from and they all smack of hype, APMEX, Goldmart, Silvertowne, etc. You name it, they are all pushing hard to get folks to buy. I scoff at their sales hype because NO ONE should feel they have to go out and buy. Instead, everyone should be dragging their feet in their purchases. Use the lower prices to YOUR advantage.

Pillar of the Community
Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2013  11:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Seems like to me Yup Pmz are starting to trickle back up again as oil goes up in price, its just that simple....

Where ever big O goes other commodities seem to follow....

Now then sure it can be short small recovery as I am totally aware, but never the less my brain tracks spot and I have not seen this many positive days in a row in some time, that tells me something....
Edited by Silverhawk74
07/22/2013 11:47 pm
Pillar of the Community
Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2013  11:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In fact most quietly and inconspicuously silver has clawed back from
$18.50 say at bottom to close to $20.50 now today....

And platinum gold and palladium are looking rather strong again....

I am already back on shelf for gold buying glad I got about 2 oz when it was lower.....
Edited by Silverhawk74
07/23/2013 01:41 am
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  01:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Check out a couple months ago when it fell from 27/28ish. It came hard to 23 rebounded into 25ish for a bit then went back down. The 23 to 18.50 fall happened pretty identical to that one and so far its gained back about the same amount. There may be a little more going on than that but right now they look identical enough that nothing looks unusual to me. Hard fast falls generally gain back some ground or keep falling.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  01:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hope your right Baseball as I would like to see a fall back to where itr was and a bit below to buy some more.....
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  02:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I know it is superficial but it looks all about QE to me. When the market thinks QE is going to be over the prices fall, when they think the train will go on for a bit more they rally.

The bottom line is that QE will end and when it does...watch out.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  10:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yea there is a lot going on.

1- a short squeeze is in effect

2- the effect from the japanese elections, currency implications (you;ll notice the gap up happened the same night that Abe won)

3- on/off QE expectations. Tho it is clear QE is going to be limited going forward. Furthermore, gold and silver have been sliding backwards since 2011, so I think QE really won't help gold and silver going forward.

Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2013  2:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Folks take a look at your proxy for gold, GLD... almost into the 6/20 gap. Note however how silver lags and does almost nothing.

more later
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