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 Replies: 82 / Views: 7,913 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
834 Posts |
I'm in the same boat as a few members. I am young 28, holding a few 1000's oz. of silver. If it heads to $10 ill buy more, I have time to hold it, maybe one day we will see $200 a oz. then ill retire early.
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Valued Member
United States
90 Posts |
What is everyone long term price target on silver say 20 years from now.
I honestly would be very worried if silver fell below $10 /oz. rather just build up stack in this 25-35 range
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Pillar of the Community
1283 Posts |
I would be upset for sure.
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Bedrock of the Community
 13014 Posts |
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Over the next 20-30 years, a lot of silver is going to disappear unless some great discovery or some new kind of technology can replace the 10,000 uses of silver. Not holding my breath. In terms of the overall silver supply the losses are pretty minimal. Theres probably more sitting at the bottom of the ocean from shipwrecks than in landfills. There are companies now that recover PMs from electronics so going forward the losses should decrease. Quote:
The only worry would be the drying up of supply or the raising of premiums if spot gets lower. A higher premium would still have a lower total cost, but the big sellers probably wouldnt raise it much if any. The local mom and pop stores probably would though to try and recover cost. Quote:
What is everyone long term price target on silver say 20 years from now. 10-40$ barring massive inflation giving a higher price from a lower value of the dollar instead of higher value of silver. The 2000+ year history of it being viewed as a valuable metal without being one of the high end premium metals makes it hard for me to believe that something will make it all of a sudden be a super valuable metal. Again thats for real value increase not inflation. It could be a 1000 dollars an ounce but if were all making millions a year and milk is a 100 dollars a gallon thats not a real increase, just money inflation. |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
The current price of silver is $28.30 per ounce.
At a price growth rate of 4.0% per year over 20 years, (which is the long term inflation rate), the value of silver is $62 per ounce.
To be a profitable investment (like any other) it has to do better than the inflation rate, after paying all taxes AS WELL.
I just cannot see any commodity doing less than the inflation rate over 20 years.
Taxes? That's a different matter, and will apply differently for most CCF members, for a large variety of different reasons.
In Australia, Capital Gains Tax is calculated on the profit above the inflation rate.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Whats the rate in AUS out of curiosity?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
I wouldn't complain, just try to buy some.
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
Over a 20 year term, the rate of inflation in Australia is not much different to that of the U.S., with only about 0.5% variation either way.
BTW, the 20 year projection is QED on a calculator with exponential function.
QED = Quite Easily Done!
Currently, an Aussie dollar will buy you 104 U.S. Cents. 20 years ago, it hit a low of 52 U.S. Cents. That's what U.S. QE 1,2 and 3 has done for the exchange rates. Also currently, international investors would rather buy Aussie bonds, they return 3% above that of U.S. bonds; there are far fewer of them in the market place, because the Aussie economy is only about 1/20 the size of the U.S. one.
Ideally for the Australian economy, the exchange rate should only be around 80 U.S. Cents because as it stands now, Australian manufactured exports are too expensive.
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Valued Member
United States
386 Posts |
Nice thought, basebal21. I'd love to see the prices drop. I know my collection would rise in price again. In the meantime, it would give me a running start on buying more commemorative halves, which are very costly in MS65 and above. Also, I'd keep stacking. Well, silver's at $28.00 right now and I didn't think it would go that low until the summer. I see this as a buying opportunity.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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Ideally for the Australian economy, the exchange rate should only be around 80 U.S. Cents because as it stands now, Australian manufactured exports are too expensive. The catch 22 of currency strength. You dont want it to be weak but at the same time if it gets too strong no one wants to buy anything from you. How about the cap gains taxes there? I was looking at it briefly the other day and it seemed to be much more favorable than what we have in the US in terms of not having every single penny of an increase counted against you. Quote:
it would give me a running start on buying more commemorative halves, which are very costly in MS65 and above. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the classic commens in ms-65 and higher will be affected minimally at best be a silver spot change. I'm doing a series of those as well and absolutely love them  . |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5862 Posts |
Hmmmm.... I wonder what BU examples of common date Morgan dollars would go for if Silver ever did drop back down to $5. Right now, the premium on them is prohibitively expensive, but I'd definitely be willing to buy a bag of them at $10-15 apiece. |
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Valued Member
United States
318 Posts |
Expect a big move over the next 2-3 weeks.
Here's my reasoning. If any of you read stock charts, take a look at SLV. It's a good enough proxy for spot silver that we can use our TA tools on it. Bring up Bollinger Bands with standard setting of 20,2. Now look at the Bollinger band width. The band width shows us recent volatility, and it has been peaking and valleying about every 6 weeks for years. It's at an all time low over the last two years, meaning it's ready to spike. Which direction will price move, up or down, I don't know because I'm not a fortune teller. But move it will.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts |
@barryg---In the immortal words of the classic Aerosmith song, "Dream On..." although it sure would be nice, though.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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but I'd definitely be willing to buy a bag of them at $10-15 apiece. I cant remember but I think they did use to sell somewhere around that point. It is a shame how inflated they are right now they are beautiful coins |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
Even as a person on the cusp of 1k oz. of silver, I'd welcome $5 prices- the caveat being that they didn't stay that low for more than 15-20 years and silver ultimately shoots back up to at least the 2011 highs ($47+). Although my collection includes more than half of all coins with numismatic value far outweighing bullion worth, I've still managed to keep my price-per-ounce ratio to under $32 (last I calculated it, anyway), so I hope I'd be in a position to add, let's say 10k oz. over 10-20 years (storage would be a nightmare, though). But by the time prices hit $50 again, I'd have a collection worth at least half a million for a total cost of under 90k. Essentially, as long as one has the time to let the market recover, I can't see much of a downside to rock bottom silver prices for an extended duration, myself.
Of course, this is all just an interesting, but unrealistic, hypothetical exercise, I think. It took an ostensibly existential threat to the entire world financial system to get silver prices down to $9 in 2009. That was a drop of a little more than half the PM's value from the March 2008 high of $21. What sort of event would have to happen for silver to lose nearly six times its current value? I shudder to think.
I believe I remember average quality Morgans selling for around $18 back in late 2008 through most of 2009. If the price fell to $5 and stayed there, Morgans would probably sell for around double that, if the scale from the previous crash is any sort of indicator.
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Replies: 82 / Views: 7,913 |
First Page
Posted 03/31/2013 4:25 pm
