Speculation And RCM Coins What Do The Members Think

"So why people (not the dealers) sell these coins?"

IN my opinion, ONLY DEALERS (speculators) are selling these coins.


"They do not want to hold the coin anymore and prefer (or need) the money."

Once again, a COLLECTOR who will sell one of their items within a year or two of acquisition is rare.


..."Or they have the target to resell the coin with some profit."

If someone targets a coin for resale, then they are speculators, not collectors.


As a collector, I do like many of they issues from the RCM and wouldn't mind having some, but aside from the 20-for-20 coins, they all seem to be well overpriced at issuance. I will wait until they get close to melt value to purchase.

Some collectors have the need to buy some of their wants RIGHT AWAY. These are the one's who are buying over issue price, as speculators create a 'false shortage' of the coins. After those collectors are satisfied, the price will drop to a level where 'normal' collectors feel comfortable with. Many times this will be lower than issue price. Only after all of an item is in the hands of collectors will the coin value once again go up.

Just my thoughts. Feel free to beat me. :)

Buy what you like, but don't buy it as an investment.

Simply backtrack and look at what 20+ year old RCM coins and sets sell for these days.

That doesn't seem a fair comparison, these series you quoted were all started before the Mint switched to monthly releases, at that time there were less choices, lower mintage, more refined designs and some of the innovations are really eye-opening..

Now the mint pretty much beat every ideas to death.
We used to have one enamel coin every other year or so, now there are a few in one year. We used to have only a few coloured coins released in a year, now is a few each month.
And there seems to be at least one new series being introduced each month...

And to top that off, the mint now re-package the coins that were over the 1-year release period and sold them again, so we will never see coins appreciate in values because collectors overlooked them and they didn't sold out (like the Summer Moon Mask) coin. And it is not just about the aftermarket value of the coin, some collectors proud themselves of owning something rare, and I believe those will got a major turnoff by what the Mint is doing these days.

I think for myself, I will finish the series I have started with RCM, and switch my focus to bullion that have different design every years (like Panda, Kook, Koala, etc).

I forgot the first Superman gold coin, the first Hologram Superman coin, etc ...

WOW! That first one (blue gem '07) is gorgeous! Now that's' one I'd pay good money for.
A few of the others are purty too. Gush!

canadian_coins : I don't have any of your coins :-) Just collecting different "surprises".
I like very much the 1st one, specially zoomed in! What's the penultimate coin?

I just read a thread over in the Australian section, they are having the same discussion regarding RAM Coins! They too are concerned over the large amount of releases and the incredibly high issue prices. These prices effectively leave little, if any room for any appreciation of the coin in the future. I find it interesting, collectors on the opposite side of the world are having the same issues with their mint releases. Also the collector response to high prices and frequent releases is mirroring much of the Canadian experience.

Here are some of my observations in the past year.When I came to the forum there was heated discussions with and between self proclaimed flippers. The subject matter centred around the next hot coin (sellout), where to get more inventory at issue prices, and prices realized, and finially culminating in I have a rep and he can get me X number of hot coin (s). This proved quite distressing for those who are primarily collectors, and master club members, especially if they couldn't obtain said coin at issue price. This tended to alienate many members or cause hurt feelings. The talk through March 2013 was focused in this manner. Each member took a position and sometimes posts would either be heated or consist oof bragging, with disregard to others feelings. The so called self proclaimed flippers were very vocal and made their presence known. Their were constant updates as to who had stock at issue prices. Complaints when enough stock couldn't be secured at issue price. We witnessed a common roll of 2012 special wrap pennies, sell for over$6,000. Suddenly ebay fever seemed to reach a fevored pitch. What possibility for riches did these last 20,000 penny rolls posses? The hoarding by flipper reached a new height, penny rolls were attaining spectacular prices for the seller. This generated much discussion by the resellers, others wondered had bidders gone mad. Little did anyone suspect the pinnicle was near!

April 2013 arrived, with the much anticipated Venetian glass butterfly release. To many people's shock and horror it sold out in under 2 hrs. Many master club members didn't even have a chance to get 1 out of 10,000 coins. Something had definitely gone wrong! Resellers in a bid to scoop one another had posted Presale ads on ebay of unreleased coins. Now the word was out, people were prepared for this particular release. The system was not prepared to handle this sudden onslaught of customers. This hasn't happened ever, the mint was in uncharted territory. The flipper with his Rep had already placed his large order the day before. The resulting fallout was like a war zone, the combatants: the Flipper vs the Collector, on this day, it didn't matter if you were a Master Club member, chances were you missed out. The glass butterfly sold out in 2 hrs. Now because of the ebay's leak some people were savy and ordered through Canada post prior to the mints release. Battle lines were drawn between the haves and have nots. Mint reviews critiqued, the mints mishandling of the release. There was pages of discussions. Iniatially the realized prices brought 100% profit to these lucky few sellers, in the first month or so.

Then the unthinkable started to happen the coin started to sell for less & less, until today it can be had close to issue, many times at auction. During this time the mint has cranked out month after month of releases. However, the fevor pitch of the April 2013 release remained unmatched. The mint in its bid to share in the wealth had started raising prices in 2013 coupled with increased releases now on a monthly basis. Two points to remember: 1) silver spot falling. 2) cost of living rising in the face of no wage increase. No longer were sell outs the norm, people started discussing not buying certain coins. Things slowly settled down. The Reseller that had stocked up on so called"Hot" coins were now left with unsold inventory! What to do? There was only 1 answer, return the unsold inventory. this was especially true if it was the Mint or Canada Post. This explains why some coins come back, after awaiting stock after several months. This business plan minamizes the risk for the reseller. Discussion would focus more and more on where can I sell my inventory and have you sold any lately. Then finially Replacing the flipping talk were issues of defective coins, too many releases,
the need to be selective, and the cost compared to silver spot. Could a collector even dare hope his coin would appreciate?

Consensus seems to indicate don't even hope for appreciation, it's unlikely in a short span of time, like it did the previous months. Conversation has moved to enjoying your coin for its own sake: the beauty, the history, and the art. New collectors are strongly cautioned against buying Nclt as an investment vehicle. A major reason; the mint has consumed the potential in its outrageous premiums. Many discuss enjoying the few selections you purchase with care. Any discount sales are posted ,so collectors can grab a bargain. This year was the first Black Friday to feature sizeable discounts on current coins. At the moment there's roughly 40 sellouts, with an inventory of over 200 coins.

The mint has adopted a new strategy of relaunching unsold inventory by reinventing new themed sets, with lower mintages. So you end up with sets with 1-2 subsets contained within.

You may ask, where are the profiteers, the official cheerleaders. They have made their coin, and now are strangely silent. Last night I checked out a couple flippers completed sales, it was a sad comment on the future of mint products. Sales for a month for two separate people were 2 and 3 items priced under $5 each. They had loads of unsold inventory, the ads just recycle themselves. The phenomenon of investing in Nclt coins was a flash in the pan. It last a year or so, and has quietly died. Of course there is the rare gems that do make small gains. It's my sole opinion based, on what I have witnessed since June 2012.,The greed from the mint and resellers has caused great fatigue in the collecting community. The end result is a decline in prices for most Nclt coins because of the sheer volume pumped out and the initially high prices of the past year. A collectors disposable income just has too much competition resulting in collector fatigue.
In conclusion I would say at this time there is a very slim chance for a coin to rise in value. It has two main hurdles to clear:1) high issue price vs spot price, 2) too many monthly releases creating a mountain of competition for the collecting dollar. The bubble just may have burst!!

These are solely my Opinions, after much reading and talking with others. It is not meant to insult or be rude to anyone. Should anyone be offended, I sincerely apologize. Roxanne

PocketChange; that was a well thought out and written post. I wasn't around these parts during the period you mentioned, and I don't even collect 'bullion coins', but I too would probably have been sore at the flippers. It's just not what the hobby needs.