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 Replies: 40 / Views: 6,103 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
586 Posts |
@Dar,
You are exactly right that USD decline causes the uptick. However, the real market reaction usually happens the next day after FOMC.
This is so called "Next day effect on FOMC". Tomorrow is very important.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1476 Posts |
So, do you think it will jump up more and then decline again?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
@Dar,
My analysis shows that gold will narrowly oscillate at current level for one more week. Then another downleg will start; maybe 1130 or 1100 is the final target. After that a quick rebound will bring gold back to where we're.
That is the path I would imagine.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1476 Posts |
It's too bad it doesn't stay at the lows long enough for a guy like me to take advantage of. The Bullion companies will just up their price to adjust for bid/ask unless you can buy major bulk. Which I can't. I mean, I WISH I could afford a comex bar! Even in Silver.  Yea, right.   Edited by Dar
03/19/2015 6:47 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Leon,
Thanks for making such bold predictions. I notice some on this board wait until after a major price move and just comment about not being surprised. Others just draw lines above and below the current price and then suggest it could go up, down, or chop.
While I don't think anyone really knows where silver goes day to day, week to week, or year to year, it is very interesting to follow.
I just hope silver stays under $18 so I am not priced out of my hobby and the 100 year silver trend line.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
@MontanaCMR,
The issue with low spot price is, it is getting harder and harder to buy nice coins from LCS now.
Most of them don't hedge their inventory; so when price crashes, they just stop selling good stuff.
But I am confident that there will be one more drop before it is done, since the Commercial traders' short position
is still relatively large, if not heavy.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
I used to dig through quarter bucket looking for Barber and Standing Liberty in AG, G or VG condition. But recently they just disappeared if not completely.
For example, Standing Liberty without date and Barber in cull condition; those are all I can find now.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
I haven't noticed any changes in selection at my LCS, ebay, or major sellers like APMEX. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Gold bouncing near $1,200.
This stuff is very hard to predict as I certainly have no idea where it's headed.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
@MontanaCMR,
The reason is, by last Tuesday, large speculators made a wrong bet on FOMC meeting result by purchasing ~20,000 gold short contracts. Commercials took the opposite position of adding 25,000 gold long contracts.
Apparently, Commercials won the bet. And then there has been a short-squeezing going on. Gold might go back 1200+ but won't last long before another down attempt for 1,100 test.
jm2c
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
1200 indeed is a major resistance.
I believe the short-squeezing on gold is OVER.
See you @1,100
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
well, looks like this path is back into play; after a short-lived counter-trend rally.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1476 Posts |
To what level do you think the Greek situation will move the market if at all?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
@Dar,
Weekly gold futures report is telling us, that Commercials are having difficulty adding short contracts against gold, when spot was above 1,200. Speculators both large and small were trying to add short contracts, too.
A comfortable level for Commercials to add shorts, maybe 1180 to 1200 area. But then the smackdown target by Commercials might be much lower; below 1,100 for example. Greek situation won't move the market; it was priced in already.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
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Replies: 40 / Views: 6,103 |
First Page
Posted 03/19/2015 2:27 pm
