Coin Community Family of Web Sites Join Thousands of Coin, Bullion, & Money Collectors
Vancouvers #1 Coin and Paper Money Dealer Specializing in Modern Numismatics Coin, Banknote and Medal Collectors's Online Mall Royal Canadian Mint products, Canadian, Polish, American, and world coins and banknotes. 300,000 items to help build your collection! Join Thousands of Coin, Bullion, & Money Collectors Royal Estate Auctions - $1 Coin Auctions








Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?


This page may contain links that result in small commissions to keep this free site up and running.

Welcome Guest! Registering and/or logging in will remove the anchor (bottom) ads. It's Free!

Overgraded Coins

To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Author Previous TopicReplies: 30 / Views: 3,862Next Topic
Page: of 2
Pillar of the Community
Garoyn's Avatar
United States
513 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2015  12:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Garoyn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
the big three or 4 TPGs


Still in learnin' mode--PCGS, NGC, ANACS, the fourth TPG? ICG? I'm guessing it's not GGS (Garoyn's Grading Service)
Rest in Peace
moxking's Avatar
United States
17900 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2015  1:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are two points which should also be considered.

The first is what I call Progressive Grade Infinitude. As several folks here have mentioned, grading itself has become more and more closely defined as time has passed.

At one time, the "grades" were Good, Fine, and Mint. As the coin values increased and the number of prospective collectors increased, so to did the "grades" become more "exact". In fact, there was great debate decades ago when the term Very Fine began to be used.

The break from that simple terminology came to coins when major dealers and auction houses decided that they needed to promote coins as an investment, rather than a hobby. They could show reams of data professing the miraculous increase in value of "investment" coins, but there remained the problem of grade.

The investors had no clue how to grade coins and since a good deal of the increase in value for coins depended on the top rank for achieving "investment" status, ANACS, which had previously only given opinions as to authenticity became the first TPG.

Even after the many points in our history when "investment" coins have crashed to oblivion (think late 1980's Classic Commemoratives)there remains that upper echelon of dealers and auction houses that still use the promotion of coins as an investment vehicle rather than as a hobby only. Why not? It's pretty hard for most "common collectors" to spend many multiple millions of dollars on a single rare coin, but investors do.

As those who have no clue how to grade enter a market in greater numbers it becomes necessary to assure them as to the exactitude of an items "grade", hence value. Thus we have "progressed" to the point today that we have so many numerical grades all the way to perfection at 70.

No longer is Almost Uncirculated just AU. Now it might be 50, 53, 55, or 58. In the last few years, we have even seen the MS grades not only split into all 10 ranks, but with added *Stars* to indicate a 62* is slightly better than a plain 62 but not quite to a 63.

This is Progressive Grade Infinitude. The TPG's promote these extremely minute differences more for the selling value of the grade than for the coin contained therein.

What started as a reassurance for the investors has followed over to the "common folk". Something that was Very Fine thirty years ago may be EF-45 today, because as the grades have become more elaborate so have they changed to fit those designs. Now, even a coin graded by a TPG 15 years ago may have changed to the point that they (OPG's for example) are popped out and resubmitted.

Again, this happens in any collecting field where INVESTMENT becomes a part of the common buying and selling within a genre. Although coins were the first to become TPG prone, Comics and Sports cards soon followed suit.

Those fields have seen exactly the same problems that coins have had in the grades becoming ever more exact (color of the pages for Comics, sharpness of the corners for sports cards). They've also seen the same Progressive Grade Infinitude.

I bought and sold comic books to put myself through college decades ago. Back then, you had three grades: Good, Fine, and Mint. When news casts started using comic prices as filler, showing a picture of a Superman #1 that sold for an astounding $200, the ball started rolling as more and more people started digging out their old comics and many of them decided to become collectors rather than sellers.

It wasn't long before Comics became "investments", but only after the "grades" had increased to FA, P, G, G+, G-VG, VG, VG+, VG-FN, FN, FN+, FN-VF, VF, VF+, etc, etc. etc.

Now there are 100 "grades" for comics from their TPG's, and those 100 are even broken down with other considerations.

All this said so that it can be apparent that grades are not static. They change and progress, most notably after a field becomes "eligible" to be considered an "investment".

So for those old timers, myself included, who can't see how the grades of today are unlike the grades of decades past - that's absolutely true. They have evolved. And the TPG's for all intents and purposes have become the holders of the keys to the kingdom of grade assignment.

Sure, buy the coin, not the slab. It's said here a million times. But when it comes time to SELL a coin, especially if it is a rare or more valuable piece, having that article in a TPG will probably help it's chances of achieving a higher sale price.

Okay, that was point one - GRADES EVOLVE. I bet you forgot I even said there were two points.

The second point is the misunderstanding of what is a grade and what is condition. In the case of circulated coins, grades 58 and below. In the case of uncirculated coins, 60 to 70.

The grade, formally indicated by an abbreviated term, such as VF for Very Fine is the accepted standard for a coin in a particular CONDITION. Grade is nothing more than a SHORT HAND for the condition.

In other words, if I take the 1813 Bust Half Dollar that I received this morning and listed its CONDITION, I would say: On Obverse: rub to hair above eye remains fully separated, hair right of LIBERTY nearly separated, full bust line showing. On Reverse: Weak strike at center, full shield lines, left wing complete with no noticeable abrasion, sharp strike to outer edges. Original remaining luster in all fields and within protected design areas. Light lavender tone on obverse and reverse peripheries.

I could even take this further and whip out my Overton to give it even more details as I verify the variety (which I'll be doing very soon!).

I can't tell you what the edges look like, because it is encapsulated.

All that can be summed up in a grade of VF-35, which I agree with completely.

Taking this a step further, ANACS did us all a great disservice when they started issuing NET grades. This made people believe that the MARKET GRADE was adjusted because of condition - which it SHOULD NOT BE.

In other words, if I take a no question uncirculated coin and I stab it a few times with a pin leaving scratches that are just plain ugly, it doesn't become LESS than MS-60. The only thing that SHOULD change the grades between 60 to 70 are the abrasions and bag marks. Tone, or lack thereof, should not change the TECHNICAL grade. It might make the coin darned ugly, which will most certainly affect the VALUE, but it won't change the grade.

In the case of circulated coins, the bag marks and abrasions should NOT influence the technical grade. For circulated coins the degree of circulation as it wears the design elements down should be the only consideration in assigning a Technical Grade. Here again, if it has a problem such as a huge rim ding, or a cut across the face, or something else that is seriously displeasing, it is likely that the VALUE will decrease significantly. But the TECHNICAL grade should not be altered and ONLY the rub or wear from circulation should be considered.

So in this instance Grade is but a short-hand for condition, although Grade might need to be amended in the case of cleaned or damaged coins (detail grade).

Do you think I've had enough coffee this morning?
Pillar of the Community
Garoyn's Avatar
United States
513 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2015  1:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Garoyn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm hearing that you're not a big fan of AU-51.7, eh?
Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2015  1:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1893S to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Moxking-Well thought out post above. But when the grading system was developed and started by Sheldon and Early Coppers collectors GRADE=VALUE and ALL factors were taken into account(strike sharpness, rim dings, abrasions, color, AND pinmarks) eye appeal is important when purchasing a coin. This is where net grading is useful. The TPG's picked up on 1-70 Sheldon grading but have changed it to a new system that is used by many but it really has many problems. And, with gradeflation this is really becoming a problem for newer and older collectors alike. Grade used to = overall condition and value, it means something else now.
Pillar of the Community
GERMANICVS's Avatar
Germany
1849 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2015  4:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GERMANICVS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very many good thoughts in this thread, not to mention moxking's extensive (and educational) explanations. Many thanks for your interesting input, everybody.

Just to add a few final points from my side. For me, personally, having started collecting U.S coins in the early 80's, the value of TPG grading lies in the following 4 areas:

1. Authentication
2. Identification of attempts at manipulation (tooling, puttying, rubbing)
3. Identification of cleaning
4. Grading

I think I can reasonably well discern whether a coin is authentic. I also think I can grade reasonably well (at least the early coins). However, I admit I am not very useful when it comes to identifying cleaning (specially if it is subtle, then retoned), and have also been fooled by subtle tooling.
To sum it up, to me TPGs do add value, specially with regard to points 2 and 3. As I said before, I wish we had a local service like this in Germany.

Coming back to grading: I reassert that I see many early coins which appear 'overgraded', at least vs. the grading scale that I have leant over 30 years of collecting early U.S coins. In fact, of the 120 or so early coins I added to my collection over 20 years ago, I would say at least 80 % would now grade higher. So this means that grading has evolved, What I was 'brought up' to see as a VG8 is now a F12, and a VF20 is now a VF35. This is what many of you refer to as 'grade-flation'. I should be happy, right? because many of my coins now grade higher, and presumably will
also sell for higher prices. But, I have to ask, why is this grade-flation occurring?

Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2015  7:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1893S to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Germanicvs-I hope you have read the Rick Snow article on the previous page... This should partially if not totally answer your question as to gradeflation.
Bedrock of the Community
paralyse's Avatar
United States
12057 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2015  11:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add paralyse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Coins are being bought and sold by investors as well as collectors. The investor crowd doesn't care about the finer details of grading, they want a plastic holder on it with a number that they can match to a price guide on the TPG's web site. The funny thing is, coins are usually hit-or-miss investments, at best, and often only long term.

An investor buys an overgraded PCGS slab that has an XF-45 coin slabbed as AU-55. Result: The price for true (collector's) AU-55 coins is going to go up, because XF coins are now going to be in the price guides for AU money.

Of course, the problem with slabbing is that it's a finite business. Once a coin's been graded, why regrade it? Why do you even need the TPG anymore? This was the problem faced by ANACS and PCI and some of the old TPG's. The solution? Invent new grades. When I started collecting coins as a kid, you had Poor, Fair, About Good, Good, Very Good, Fine, Very Fine, Extra Fine, Abt. Unc., Uncirculated (Mint State) and Brilliant Uncirculated. Thenceforth came the first in-betweens: G6, VG10, F15, VF25, VF30, VF35, XF40, AU50, AU53, AU58. Unc/BU was split into MS-60 through MS-65.

But that wasn't enough. A new bunch of grades were created, MS-66 to MS-70. Now a new batch of people popped out their 65's and tried for 66 and better grades - more business.

But then that still wasn't enough. So they added designations like PL, DPL, DMPL, FH, FB/FSB, FBL...this was still 20+ years ago.

All done now...

Nope. Need more. Let's add + and * to the mix. That'll make them send the coin in for the 4th or 5th time.

Oh. While we're add it, let's add a new service founded by a former TPG boss and its job will be to double-check the work done by the other TPGs...for more money.

Pfft. What next, 1-point grade increments across the board? I wouldn't doubt it. "This 1898 Morgan dollar is graded XF-42+#@!"

Of course, when that gets old, there's always decimal points...and maybe we need a triple-checker service to double-check the double-checker's double-checking of the TPG's grade. I'll call it the RDC: Really Dumb Certification. Its job will be to sell you, for the low price of $1000 per coin, a pink, purple, or rainbow sticker that tells you how accurate CAC's opinion of PCGS's opinion is.

There would be takers.
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890

"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis
Rest in Peace
moxking's Avatar
United States
17900 Posts
 Posted 08/06/2015  07:32 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't know how long it will be before it happens, but I can foresee a company that bases it's grading strictly by a computer model.

First the computer checks to see if the coin is circulated, and has the defined areas to check for each date and mint mark combination. If there is any hint of circulation the computer analyzes the amount of circulation and deducts points for each area showing that wear. The final circulated grade is a percentage based on a 100 point perfect score. Below a certain point, lets say 70, it is circulated.

Have the computer have the "pattern" for a perfect Morgan dollar. Select areas on the coin that are particularly bad for abrasions and color those areas red. If a hit is in the red area, it reduces the 100 point scale by X amount. But if the same hit is in the hair area and somewhat hidden, it only deducts 71% of the X amount. Cheeks, eye lids, open fields will be most susceptible to abrasions and will becomes the orange area on the pattern for another percentage of X's deduction.

Toning is not taken into consideration, indications of cleaning will be examined by the computer with the addition of a micro-sniffer to deduce any hint of chemical addition. Fields particularly will be checked for any hint of the "halo" effect.

Out pops a 93.4% in an indestructible container that cannot be opened without damaging the coin. It is specifically designed so that it can never be removed, except for this companies own machine that can open it for an additional fee.

I hope I don't see it happening, but I'm honestly surprised that someone hasn't tried to create a computer model that does the major analysis for grade.

Of course, a second option for the person sending their coins in is to have a human grader apply similar talents and have a second rating against the computer, with yet another option to have that human give an "eye appeal" pronouncement, also in numerical form.

Thus you would have a forever slabbed Morgan graded 93.4/88.7/21.

The "eye appeal" rating is based on 25 possible points as perfection.

I'm glad I'm old enough that I shouldn't see this happen.

Pillar of the Community
GERMANICVS's Avatar
Germany
1849 Posts
 Posted 08/06/2015  08:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GERMANICVS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
moxking, computer-assisted grading of Morgan dollars is something that was considered in the early to mid 90's if I remember. I do not remember what became of this, but I have to assume that the limited capability of processors back then was the limiting factor.
Rest in Peace
moxking's Avatar
United States
17900 Posts
 Posted 08/06/2015  09:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Germanicvs - I remember that some 20 years ago or so there was a company that considered computer model grading, but nothing ever came of it. I was thinking Accugrade at first, but I don't think they were the ones that tried it.

Today, a whiz with program modeling could probably produce such a program for specific coin types/years/mints if they really wanted to spend a year or two doing it.

It could be done now, I'm betting, I'm just surprised that someone with bucks hasn't latched on to a geek-wizard to start the process.
Pillar of the Community
GERMANICVS's Avatar
Germany
1849 Posts
 Posted 08/06/2015  09:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GERMANICVS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
moxking, yes, I was thinking of Accugrade also, but something tells me that it was a grading company associated with Bowers and Merena back then. Not sure. It had a very colonial and historical sounding name, but I just cannot remember what it was called. I think it was them.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 08/06/2015  09:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add terry8835 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I see LSQ's grossly over graded on ebay. I see coins graded VF or EF and I can not even read the date. Mostly they don't even grade them, but you just have to look and guess. If I can't read the date I am not buying. I bought a 1920D that was listed for $159 and I got it for $115 which was closer to the true value. I won't even touch the really scarce coins graded or not. The more rare the coin the more grade inflation I think. I actually don't want to buy coins in slabs.
Pillar of the Community
Learn More...
ChildOfTheWheat's Avatar
United States
5828 Posts
 Posted 08/06/2015  09:52 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ChildOfTheWheat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The more rare the coin the more grade inflation


I have to disagree. There is no way this is true. Take for instance, the Reed Specimen of the 1804 Dollar. It was graded PF-64 by ICG. Now, wouldn't you expect this coin to be a lot better than that considering that the more rare the coin the more inflated the grade is? Just sayin.
Valued Member
CanadaCoinCollector's Avatar
Canada
137 Posts
 Posted 08/08/2015  2:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CanadaCoinCollector to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I dont know cause I have a couple of coins I was hoping for atleast ms 60 and I got ms 64 so it really depends on the grading company and the grader
Valued Member
EconBrony's Avatar
United States
336 Posts
 Posted 08/08/2015  4:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add EconBrony to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@ CanadaCoinCollector

Very true, each grader is a different person and each person's opinion differs. One of many things that makes us all human :)
  Previous TopicReplies: 30 / Views: 3,862Next Topic
Page: of 2

To participate in the forum you must log in or register.



    




Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us  |  Advertise Here  |  Privacy Policy / Terms of Use

Coin Community Forum © 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Forums
It took 0.41 seconds to rattle this change. Forums