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A Rough Calculation For Gold And Silver Bottom

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leon1998's Avatar
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586 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2015  11:00 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
The theory is based on the assumption that gold/silver will bottom when EURO/USD exchange ratio reaches parity.

Today the exchange ratio is 1.06
Generally, gold spot moves about US$20-30 per exchange ratio change of 1%; let's take US$25 as a typical number.

If exchange ratio drops to 1:1, then gold spot has US$25x6=150 to drop per oz. Today gold spot sits at $1066, which means US$916 as the target. This is quite close to the US$900 support that many had mentioned.

Let's take $900 as target, which is 15.57% lower than today; what will be for Silver? Since Silver has a larger beta than gold, if we assume 1.25x movement for silver; then 19% drop for silver until bottom.

The number for silver is then US$11.4
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leon1998's Avatar
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586 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2015  11:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It turns out again that, Thanksgiving special is NOT a deal.

I will wait until $12 silver spot, to start stacking again.
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MichioKaku's Avatar
United States
374 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2015  2:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MichioKaku to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't necessarily stack silver, but do trade for silver...
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moxking's Avatar
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17900 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2015  3:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If anyone was actually able to use any number pattern to predict silver and/or gold prices they would be disgustingly rich.
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thq's Avatar
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 Posted 12/01/2015  3:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm a dollar cost stacker. I stack old coins, preferably uncommon and in decent shape.

For what I stack the price is down $50-100 per coin over the last year. If it goes down more, the cost per coin will go down, and the stack will continue to grow at a lower out of pocket cost.

A lower price won't make me accumulate any faster. I like to give my LCS business. Stacking is still a coin collecting hobby more than it is an investment. I'm not planning on funding my retirement by making a killing in precious metals.

The stack bought me a new watch years ago. Someday it might buy another watch, or maybe a car. Sometimes there are things I want more than a stack of coins.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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macmercury's Avatar
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5833 Posts
 Posted 12/01/2015  5:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Assuming the Fed are going to raise interest next month, we may see it going down for a short time, and that would be a good time to buy in when it does happen.
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leon1998's Avatar
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586 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2015  11:54 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Last week's gold futures report showed that Swap Dealers were NET LONG gold contracts; and their long/short ratio reached 1.8:1 ! Apparently, since both large/small speculators have been accumulating short positions on gold, Banksters had to take the other side of trades.

So far they have been losing for two weeks; now they angrily start a scare tactic:

GRAPHIC-If history is a guide, dollar will drop after Fed hike
Reuters - 1 hour ago
LONDON Dec 2 History is not on the dollar's side. In the last couple of decades, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, has fallen every time the Federal Reserve has begun a cycle of interest rate hikes.

Now you know who Main-Stream-Media is working for
Edited by leon1998
12/02/2015 11:55 am
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ChildOfTheWheat's Avatar
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5828 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2015  12:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ChildOfTheWheat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As soon as silver comes down to $13.50, I'm going to start stacking junk silver. I've been planing on doing it, but I've been waiting for the price to drop down a bit more.
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leon1998's Avatar
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586 Posts
 Posted 12/02/2015  1:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I took advantage of Black Friday's special pricing from online bullion dealers; which reduced premium by as much as $1 per oz. So I was effectively buying as if Silver spot was $13. However, I feel like still overpaid, considering $11 Silver in the future.
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thq's Avatar
United States
3343 Posts
 Posted 12/03/2015  11:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Stacking time is here! I was offered a junk ex-jewelry $5 lib for $260 Tuesday. $5 over melt. Dealers want this stuff out their doors yesterday.

In previous bullion drops I've noticed that dealer selection is at its best at the start, then goes to almost nothing. Once their inventory is gone it isn't immediately restocked.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
12/03/2015 11:42 am
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